Houston Texans

Houston Texans: Without Watt Can They Compete?

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

foxsports

Sep 22, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt (99) heads for the bench after a New England Patriots touchdown during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Today the Texans know they will likely play the remainder of the 2016 season without J. J. Watt. That means there is no hope for the Texans this year…Right? Wrong!

I refer you first to The Good, The Bad & The Ugly series that appeared in Toro Times earlier this year. The theme of those posts is that “stuff happens”. In June we think we know what a team will look like and we project the team’s performance from that snapshot. In Good, Bad & Ugly we projected a range of things that could occur, primarily injuries, that would change the picture for better or worse.

J. J. Watt not returning to form was a key element in several of the Bad and Ugly scenarios. A serious injury to Brian Cushing was another. Duane Brown’s slow recovery was a third. Then there is Nick Martin’s season ending injury. That combination puts “Ugly” in play, but it is not inevitable.

GBU assumed a static roster. Alternatives considered to deal with negative scenarios, primarily injuries, were limited to players appearing on the original 90 man roster. In the real world there are undrafted free agents and trades that can supplement an injury depleted team. That takes us back to today’s Texans.

Sep 18, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans linebackers coach Mike Vrabel shakes hands with defensive end Jadeveon Clowney (90) before a game against the Kansas City Chiefs at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Texans don’t have to replace three time defensive player of the year J. J. Watt.

That Watt never appeared for the 2016 Texans. The numbers show that in 2016 J. J. Watt was a fairly ordinary NFL defensive end. Of course the statistics don’t show the extent to which he was double and triple teamed, but there are not a lot of tackles and sacks to replace.

That is not a knock on Watt. He battled, but he simply wasn’t healthy. The point is that the Texans went 2-1 with a mere mortal at defensive end, and with Brown, Martin and Cushing all sidelined. But, just as Watt joins Martin on IR, Cushing and Brown return to practice on a limited basis. Hopefully they will be available for the Vikings game or soon thereafter. That’s a start.

Fan favorite, the long of tooth but competent run stopper, Antonio Smith replaces Watt on the roster. If Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus are able to effectively deal with the double teams previously directed at Watt and if Cushing returns to pre-injury form the defense should be comparable to that of the first three games. That’s a lot of “ifs”, but it can happen.

In that configuration the defense will not be as good as the defense projected in June with super star J. J. Watt in the line-up. However, it can be comparable to the defense that throttled the Bears and Chiefs. It did the same to the Patriots except for two short field gifts by Texans special teams and one long run from scrimmage in garbage time.

Can the defense approach the June projection or “The Good” scenario? No. Does that mean the Texans are doomed to underperform the 10-6 regular season record projected in June? No. It means the offense must play better than it has so far to offset the diminished defense. Give more points. Score more points. The “W” is all that counts.

Sep 18, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans tackle Duane Brown (76) before a game against the Kansas City Chiefs at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

How do the Texans improve the offense?

Duane Brown’s return helps. If Osweiler improves as he vows to helps more. But, improving the offensive line is the key to improving the offense. At the risk of beating a dead horse, the offensive line improvement must come from outside the organization. It doesn’t have to be Joe Thomas, but it has to be someone better than any offensive lineman on the Texans’ current roster not named Duane Brown.

An offense that can control the clock and put points on the board will compensate for a defense diminished by Watt’s absence. Improving the offense is much easier to achieve than replacing a healthy J. J. Watt. He is irreplaceable. But in 2016 some team is going to win without J. J. Watt. Why shouldn’t that team be the Texans?