National Football League

Dak Prescott may be the NFC's best QB. What does that mean for the Cowboys?

Updated May. 16, 2023 3:58 p.m. ET

For the sake of transparency, let me admit that I'm not afraid to hunt for content.

The NFL has done a masterful job of keeping the news cycle in a year-long sleeper hold, but this is still a sport with a seven-month offseason. With so much time between the schedule release and actual games, it's logical to look for fresh topics of conversation.

So when I heard my friends at The Athletic Football Show power-ranking the quarterback situations in the NFC last week, my radar went off.

It's arguably the most interesting thing about the NFL in 2023. The AFC is a veritable minefield of quality quarterback play, with the last five NFL MVPs and five total All-Pros playing on that side of the league. The NFC is anything but that, as nearly all the conference's 16 starting quarterbacks come with a warning label of some kind. Over a two- or three-year window, what's the outlook for so many quarterbacks with so many unknowns?

That inevitably brings us back to the curious case of Dak Prescott, who has assumed the mantle so familiar to the quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys — highly qualified, highly criticized. The Athletic's Robert Mays and Nate Tice ranked Prescott first and second respectively, atop the NFC heap alongside Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts — a decision that can be seen as both refreshing and controversial.

Prescott is facing arguably the most criticism of his eight-year career these days, following a star-crossed 2022. Despite missing five games with a thumb injury, his 15 interceptions led the NFL. And although he played one of the best playoff games in franchise history against Tampa Bay, his play well fell short in another dismal postseason loss to San Francisco.

And yet, the numbers speak for themselves. Prescott has helped the Cowboys to 12-5 records in back-to-back seasons, running a top-five scoring offense each time. His 60 touchdown passes rank second in the conference over the past two seasons. Only Jalen Hurts has a better career interception rate, as Prescott's career number of 2% puts him even with Jared Goff and Derek Carr, ahead of Kirk Cousins and Matthew Stafford.

The biggest knock against Prescott is probably his contract. He's entering the third year of a four-year extension. And while the Cowboys have restructured the deal to give themselves salary cap space in 2023, he's currently slated to hit their cap for an untenable $59 million in 2024.

Contrast that with Hurts. Even having signed a $255 million extension, the 24-year-old isn't projected to cost the Eagles more than $32 million until 2027. Combine that with his All-Pro level of play last season, and it's easy to give him the nod as the best option in the NFC.

Dallas Cowboys WR Brandin Cooks: '[Dak Prescott's] special'

Beyond Hurts, though, who makes a better case than Prescott? Stafford has the better overall body of work and played wonderfully en route to a Super Bowl championship in 2021. However, he did just turn 35 and has missed time with multiple injuries. It's also worth considering that, with roughly 30 rookies competing for spots on their roster, the Rams don't look like a team with true playoff aspirations right now.

Goff and Smith are interesting, given that both made the Pro Bowl over Prescott just last season. But it's worth noting that Goff's resurgence over the second half of last season came after a two-year run of middling play that helped him get traded by his original club. If he can maintain what was saw down the stretch in 2022, his favorable contract could be a sneaky benefit for Detroit. As for Smith, few quarterbacks in the entire league played better last season, and his new contract is fairly team-friendly. Still, 17 games at the age of 32 provide a small yet intriguing sample size that requires further evaluation.

Much like Prescott, Cousins' résumé is largely better than it gets credit for. The problem for the Minnesota Vikings is that only one year remains on his current contract, which makes the multi-year outlook murky at best. Carr has guided his team to the playoffs twice in nine seasons, with no postseason wins to show for it. And while wins might not be exclusively a quarterback stat, his career winning percentage of 44% is enough to keep him a few notches down the list.

Allowing for a difference of opinion, it's easy to conclude that Prescott is no worse than fourth on this type of list. And it's possible, though probably not worth the headache, to assert that he's worthy of No. 1. Let's split the difference and keep him at No. 2.

It says just as much about the NFC as it does about Prescott that this might be true. Obviously, the balance of power in the league is currently off-kilter. It's easy to argue that a list of the 10 best quarterbacks league-wide would be split 8-2 in favor of the AFC, or possibly even 9-1. Navigating the NFC's side of the playoff bracket sounds like a picnic compared to what awaits the AFC postseason participants.

None of that is the Cowboys' fault, nor Prescott's. The objective is to win two or three straight games to reach the organization's first Super Bowl since the 1995 season, and that currently looks more manageable than it has in quite some time.

[Dallas Cowboys 2023 schedule, predictions for wins and losses]

That also helps explain why extending Prescott has been a topic of conversation this year. The timing feels weird, given that his most recent performance was a two-interception playoff loss. But it also makes sense given that we can assume Prescott will be among the handful of the NFC's top quarterbacks for at least the next two or three years. In time, a Justin Fields or a Bryce Young or another young, talented player will supplant him. But right now, there is a brief window where the NFC looks as winnable as ever. The lower Prescott's cap hit is during these next two or three years, the more likely the Cowboys can maintain a winning roster around him.

Whether that happens remains to be seen. Both Prescott and the Cowboys' front office have said they think a new deal will come about without much in the way of fanfare, but it's anyone's guess what that timeline looks like.

In the meantime, the reality is the Cowboys find themselves in an enviable situation. Whether Prescott can make the most of it is arguably the most interesting storyline in the NFC.

David Helman covers the Dallas Cowboys for FOX Sports. He previously spent nine seasons covering the Cowboys for the team’s official website. In 2018, he won a regional Emmy for his role in producing "Dak Prescott: A Family Reunion" about the quarterback’s time at Mississippi State. Follow him on Twitter at @davidhelman_.