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'Bear Bets': The Group Chat talks Cowboys-Dolphins bets, NFL Week 16 slate

Updated Dec. 22, 2023 11:02 a.m. ET

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With another exciting weekend of NFL football coming up, it's another opportunity to throw some money down on the big games.

And if you are betting on the games, you'll want to listen to The Group Chat segment of the latest "Bear Bets" episode as the fellas break down this week's biggest matchups.

FOX Sports' Geoff Schwartz, Sam Panayotovich and Will Hill discussed the Week 16 slate, including the two big possible Super Bowl matchups and a couple of future bets to make.

Let's jump into all of the action!

The biggest game on Sunday is in Miami, where the Dolphins (-1.5) host the Cowboys (4:25 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app) in a potential Super Bowl preview. Is there a side or a play you like in this game?

Schwartz: Cowboys +1.5

"Dallas is supposed to be a physical team, right? Physical offensive line, physical defensive line, rush the passer, run the football, protect Dak Prescott — and they got dominated by the Bills. I feel like just the pride of that team is going to go to Miami [and impose its will]. Miami has had trouble this season against teams that try to out-physical them.

"Both teams have a lot of wins against losing teams. The one win? Cowboys over Eagles."

Hill: Lean Cowboys +1.5, use as teaser leg

"I think if you can disrupt Miami, throw their timing off, get physical with them and their receivers, make Tua [Tagovailoa] get off his spot — we saw the Titans do it and make the Dolphins look really mediocre, especially if [Tyreek] Hill's not back or if he's not 100%.

"Dallas is in perfect teaser range. There's plenty of other games to tease it with."

Sammy P: Lean Under 50

"I am not touching the side. We all had Buffalo last week. It's not like we're just anti-Dallas people. Dallas was in a bad spot last week. I don't feel the same way this week. If anything, I feel like the defensive intensity will pick up for Dallas.

"I think this is a game that's probably like 24-20 final. I love what [Vic] Fangio has done. He's shifted a lot of things defensively in Miami. We know that Dallas needs to be better defensively and play with more passion upfront."

Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins best bets, predictions, <a href=

The biggest Week 16 game is on Monday night when the Ravens travel to San Francisco to face the 49ers (-5.5). While this is also a possible Super Bowl preview, three of the favorites to win MVP are playing in this game. How would you bet on the MVP race in relation to this game?

Hill: Bet Ravens +5.5 as a hedge if you have a Brock Purdy MVP ticket

"First of all, you could win both if the 49ers win by a field goal. You win your Baltimore bet, and you're sitting there with Purdy, who pretty much locks up the MVP if they win this game. I don't buy the idea that Christian McCaffrey is going to win it, so that's a nice hedge."

Sammy P: Play Lamar Jackson to win MVP before you bet on the Ravens money line 

"If Baltimore wins, [Jackson might be the favorite to win MVP]. When we look back at the end of the season, and Lamar has almost 4,000 passing yards, maybe he's got 1,000 rushing yards; I know the touchdown number might not be as high as other guys, but if a player has 5,000 yards of offense all around for a No. 1 seed, you should get a lot of love.

Any plays on the actual game?

Hill: Ravens +5.5, Over

"I could see this being a 27-24 type of game. [I didn't like what I saw] from the Niners' defense last week."

Can Ravens' Lamar Jackson catch 49ers' Brock Purdy in NFL MVP race?

As we enter the season's final three weeks, there's still a bit of logjam for the final playoff spots in each conference. The Group Chat has stated its confidence in the Bills to make the playoffs already, but are there any teams in the AFC that are out of the playoff picture that you think will make it? Are there any playoff bets you like in the NFC?

Hill: Maybe Broncos (+230), lean Rams to make it NFC (-125)

"I guess I would pick the Broncos just because you get the Patriots and you can get back on track. I don't know that any of these teams are that dangerous. I think there's a reason people want Buffalo out of the mix, because you look at the Raiders, Colts, Texans with C.J. Stroud beat up and their bad defense. I don't know that there's a sleeper in here.

"I think the Packers are dead. Probably two out of the three Seahawks, Rams and Vikings, one of them gets left out, and two make it. The Vikings get the Lions twice. I wouldn't be shocked if it was them. I don't know that anything is completely mispriced."

Sammy P: Fade the Colts (+110 to miss playoffs); take Rams to make the playoffs (-125)

"Indianapolis has been getting by, and Shane Steichen has outstanding job given the pieces he's had to work with. Backup quarterback, backup running backs, all that jazz. They've been very, very good to this point. I think they lose to the Falcons this week. Atlanta is getting steamed. The wise guys are all over Atlanta. Indianapolis has to beat Atlanta, and then they probably got to beat C.J. Stroud on Jan. 7

"In terms of tiebreakers, if the Rams beat the Saints, they have the tiebreaker over the Seahawks and Saints. Yet when we look at the money line for Thursday night, the Rams are -210, -220. The Rams will make the playoffs is -125, which if the Rams win tonight as a four-point favorite, -120 becomes -190 or higher."

AFC Playoff Race: Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati <a href=

Favorite football plays this weekend?

Sammy P: Falcons -1 vs. Colts (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app)

"It's tough to get back to the Falcons. I know people that were on Atlanta last week that will just not bet them this week. And I understand it. If you bet on a team that loses 9-7 against a one-win team, it's tough to drink that milkshake again the following week. I did not bet on Atlanta last week, so I've been able to kind of look at this with a clear lens."

NFC Playoff Race: Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints

Hill: Northwestern +7 vs. Utah in Las Vegas Bowl

"I don't know if +7 is still out there. But I do think they're live in that game. Boy, it's a full-time job trying to keep up with these opt-outs, who opts out, who opts back in, the transfer portal, who's playing."

Schwartz: Vikings +3 vs. Lions (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app)

"Lions on the road are just not as good. I know this game's inside, so it does favor Jared Goff and what he can do well. But the Vikings' defense is extremely underrated, now fifth in DVOA. They're gonna pressure Jared Goff, trying to force him into mistakes.

"Nick Mullens was OK last week, especially early in that game against the Bengals. But the Vikings' offensive line is really good. And the Vikings can rely on that offensive line to get some yards against a Lions team that allows a lot of yards and a lot of points at times."

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National Football League

Dallas Cowboys

Miami Dolphins

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Lamar Jackson

Brock Purdy

Denver Broncos

Los Angeles Rams

Indianapolis Colts

Atlanta Falcons

Minnesota Vikings

Detroit Lions

NFL - Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers - 12/26/2023

NFL - Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins - 12/24/2023

NFL - Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons - 12/24/2023

NFL - Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings - 12/24/2023

Sam Panayotovich

Geoff Schwartz

Bear Bets: A FOX Sports Gambling Show