National Football League

Aaron Rodgers vs. Green Bay Packers: Who’s your money on?

Published Jun. 8, 2021 7:08 p.m. ET

By Martin Rogers
FOX Sports Columnist

What Aaron Rodgers did – or, more accurately, didn’t do – on Tuesday wasn’t a shock.

Rodgers' not showing up for the Green Bay Packers ' mandatory minicamp wasn’t a stunning development. It wasn’t the most dramatic moment of the NFL offseason because, in truth, it’s hard for something to be dramatic when it involves a no-show that was widely expected.

The fact that Rodgers didn’t arrive at Packers HQ for an 8.30 a.m. meeting that kicked off three days of team activities was something you could see coming, and it won’t cost him a significant amount of money — not by his standards, anyway.

Yet by staying put wherever he is and confirming what we figured was going to happen, Rodgers actually made his biggest statement so far in the ongoing arm-wrestling match between him and the Packers.

Greg Jennings: Aaron Rodgers needs to list demands from Packers & report to camp | SPEAK FOR YOURSELF

Greg Jennings joins Marcellus Wiley and Emmauel Acho to discuss whether Aaron Rodgers should report to the Green Bay Packers' mandatory mini camp.

It is a strange, old game, this, a rare battle of wills featuring an NFL team and an individual player in which the balance of power is actually relatively even. Green Bay has the implied and inherent leverage of being the employer and of holding a contract binding its biggest star for the next three years.

Rodgers has some ammunition of his own, though, and it largely revolves around underlying and unspoken threats of what he could do – such as refuse to play, formally demand a trade, skip preseason altogether or even retire.

The reigning NFL MVP hasn’t spoken about the matter in any great detail, and what he has said, beginning after Green Bay’s defeat in the NFC Championship Game and continuing in a brief interview last month, has been cryptic.

Remember when he said in February that his future would turn into a "beautiful mystery?" Green Bay fans are finding that there’s nothing particularly pretty about the rift right now, though the mysterious part most definitely endures.

The NFL public is left to parse and peruse the varying bits of information, and while Rodgers' not coming to Wisconsin to hang out with the boys this week is a smaller measure than others that could come later, such as missing the start of training camp, it is also a clear message.

Rodgers is aware that the Packers hierarchy is digging in, and, well, he’s digging in, too. Digging to the point that we have the somewhat remarkable situation of the reigning NFL MVP willingly establishing himself as an official holdout, potentially costing him $93,085 if he skips all three days.

Thus, the arm-wrestling continues, with the battle lines that were already drawn entrenched even deeper.

Colin Cowherd: Packers should wait to move Aaron Rodgers until the trade deadline | THE HERD

Colin Cowherd reveals why the Green Bay Packers should wait until the trade deadline before sending off Aaron Rodgers.

The reason Tuesday’s non-development matters is that it shows just how much Rodgers wants to prove his point and get his way, which would appear to be either a trade or the ousting of current general manager Brian Gutekunst. It is still difficult to imagine Rodgers going elsewhere, but each passing milestone cuts away a few more of the binding strands. Regardless of whether the reality is that Rodgers is closer to an exit from Green Bay than he was at the start of the offseason, it certainly feels that way.

Now the pressure shifts back to the Packers organization, whether it can hope to repair the fractured relationship with Rodgers and whether it can do so in time. Barring showing up in the middle of minicamp, the 37-year-old will have given up a $500,000 voluntary workout bonus plus nearly $100,000 more, which must beg the question of how much longer he’s prepared to stretch this out.

"While the Tuesday start of minicamp has been long anticipated as the next significant step in the Packers’ stalemate with Rodgers, it might be likely the team postpones any real punishment," Ryan Wood of Packers News wrote.

However, while the team could exempt Rodgers from fines for avoiding minicamp, levies of $50,000 a day for missing training camp are league-mandated. It is anyone’s guess where this matter will be by late July. Last weekend, Packers president Mark Murphy admitted in a talk-to-the-fans article on the team website that the Rodgers issue has split supporters.

"The situation we face … has divided our fan base," Murphy wrote. "We remain committed to resolving things with Aaron and want him to be our quarterback in 2021 and beyond."

If Rodgers wants out and wishes, as is suggested, to move to a West Coast location, there are only so many tactical moves he is able to make. As of right now, he’s making all of them. Not showing up Tuesday was the latest.

The Packers want to spin this narrative toward the opportunity for backup Jordan Love to get meaningful reps and for ongoing dialogue with Rodgers. That’s the story they’re selling, but no one’s buying it.

Regardless of how good Love performs at minicamp, the reality is that Green Bay wants Rodgers back under center when the season begins and will likely need him there to have any hope of being a serious contender.

Colin Cowherd: Aaron Rodgers' leverage is that Jordan Love is not ready to play | THE HERD

Colin Cowherd discusses Matt LaFleur's news conference and details about Jordan Love's development.

FOX Bet has the Packers as seventh-favorites to win next season’s Super Bowl, at +1700, odds that would shorten significantly if the Rodgers situation were to be resolved with a positive outcome.

On one side, there is a historic organization apparently determined to prove that it is bigger than any one player. On the other is a player, one of the game’s true elites, who thinks he has options – a new fiancée to spend time with and maybe a game show to host – and clearly believes he has enough power in this situation to get what he wants.

Sooner or later, it’s going to come to a head. Tuesday wasn’t that day, but as another chance for resolution passed, a final confrontation moved a little bit closer. Who’s going to blink first? Who’s your money on?

Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider Newsletter. You can subscribe to the newsletter here.