2025 NFL Conference Championship Picks: Best Bet For Each Game — Will's Wagers

The NFL season that started back in the heat of summer with 32 teams, is now left with just four. 

While frigid temperatures and an abundance of snow await certain parts of the country, all eyes of the football world will be locked in on this week’s conference title games. 

For the first time since the 2010 season, the AFC Championship will feature neither Patrick Mahomes nor Tom Brady. It was Mark Sanchez and the Jets losing to Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers that season, yet remarkably, either the Chiefs or Patriots have played in every AFC title game since — a streak that will continue this year. 

As we get ready to enjoy the final three games of the NFL season, let’s look for some best bets that are still out there for this weekend.

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No. 2 Patriots @ No. 1 Broncos
AFC Championship Game

Demario Douglas anytime TD scorer (+425)

"Pop" Douglas scored the first touchdown of the game last week in the Patriots’ divisional-round victory over the Texans, hauling in a fourth-down throw that was deflected but still snagged by the young receiver. The week prior, Douglas was targeted on a throw to the end zone early in the game against the Chargers, although the pass sailed out of the end zone for an incompletion. While teammate Kayshon Boutte has emerged as a deep threat in these playoffs, including a remarkable touchdown catch last week, Boutte is likely to draw attention from standout Broncos’ corner Patrick Surtain II in this game. If you’re looking for a more conservative wager, closer to game time, you can just play the over on Douglas’ yards and/or catches. If you want to be more daring, Douglas is +2200 at FanDuel Sportsbook to once again score the first touchdown of the game. I like the matchup for Douglas, and wouldn’t be surprised if he has a bigger-than-expected role on Sunday.

No. 5 Rams @ No. 1 Seahawks
NFC Championship Game

Sam Darnold Under 5.5 rushing yards 

Last week, much was made heading into the Seahawks’ rematch with the 49ers of Sam Darnold’s oblique injury. The Seahawks' quarterback didn't appear to show any real signs of discomfort, but in a lopsided game, not much was asked of Darnold either. One part of the box score that is noticeable: Darnold had zero rushing attempts for zero yards. Even prior to the injury, Darnold hadn’t been running much. On Dec. 7 against the Falcons was the last time Darnold ran for 10 yards or more in a game. Remember, kneel downs also count as negative yardage, counting against the rushing stats of a quarterback. I don’t think we see much running from the banged-up Darnold in this one.

Super Bowl Futures: Rams over Broncos exact Super Bowl result (+750)

I love the value here. The Broncos were expected to be favorites over the Patriots prior to the Bo Nix injury. With Jarrett Stidham stepping in for the injured Nix, this line has now been over-adjusted. The Broncos have a good roster to support Stidham, and a Super Bowl-winning coach who thrived when his future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees missed games in 2019 with the Saints. If Denver wins, it’s very possible it will face the Rams, who beat the Seahawks in their first meeting, then blew a late 16-point lead in the second one. This time around, the Rams will have Davante Adams in the lineup, unlike in their last matchup. If we do in fact get a Broncos-Rams Super Bowl, the Rams will be favored and the +750 will be a heck of a bet to be holding. As someone who likes both underdogs Sunday, taking a shot at the +750 seems like a worthy investment.