National Football League

2023 Washington Commanders Over/Under win total odds, predictions, picks

Updated Aug. 28, 2023 5:29 p.m. ET

With the NFL season set to begin, FOX Sports gambling experts and NFL writers are looking at the Over/Under for every team in the league. Check back daily to see predictions on where your team will finish the regular season!

September's presence, mere days away, and the air turning crisp can only mean one thing … NFL football is back, baby!

Now that sportsbooks have dropped Over/Under win totals for every team in the league, it's time to dive into the fun and look at the numbers from a betting perspective.

Can the Washington Commanders eclipse their win total of 6.5?

Here is how our FOX Sports talent sees the Commanders' season playing out.

Pick via FOX Sports NFC East Writer Ralph Vacchiano: Commanders Under 6.5 wins

There is a lot to like about this team and what Ron Rivera is building in Washington, but it’s hard to overcome their question mark at quarterback. They love Sam Howell, but he’s still a 22-year-old, fifth-round pick with one NFL start, learning his second offense in two seasons.

In a division filled with big-money quarterbacks and potentially big offenses, that puts a lot on his plate. Howell has good weapons around him and a strong defense, but there are also big questions about his offensive line. So this will be a year about progress and growth. It’s hard to count on a lot of wins.

Pick via FOX Sports Gambling Writer Patrick Everson: Commanders Over 6.5 wins

The value on Commanders Under 6.5 wins has been depleted. Sharp bettors got on Under 6.5 at +110, even money and -110, to the extent that Under 6.5 is now at least a -125 favorite. Some sportsbooks are out to -135.

So Under 6.5 isn’t a value play at this point — the best odds are long gone. And it’s understandable why the price has moved so much.

Professional bettor Adam Chernoff rightly noted that Washington has a brutal schedule early and late in the season. Still, with the Under value dried up, I’ll follow sharp player Randy McKay’s advice and grudgingly take Over 6.5 (+115). But the Under won’t surprise me at all.

FOX Sports Research Nuggets

5-7-1 (Over-Under-Push) since 2010
Have won seven games in three straight seasons

2022 In Review

Overall: 8-8-1, 4th in NFC East
Home record: 4-5
Road record: 4-3-1
Divisional record: 2-3-1
Point differential: -22 (21st in NFL)
Points per game: 18.9 (24th in NFL)
Yards per game: 330.3 (20th in NFL)
Opponent points per game: 20.2 (T-7th in NFL)
Opposing yards per game: 304.6 (3rd in NFL)

Cowboys vs. Eagles center Nick Wright, Chris Broussard's NFC East predictions

What to Know

Head Coach: Ron Rivera, 4th season (22-27-1 with Washington)
2023 Strength of Schedule: .535 (8th-hardest in NFL)

Key Additions

CB Emmanuel Forbes (1st-round pick, 16th overall from Mississippi State)
QB Jacoby Brissett (Cleveland Browns)
WR Byron Pringle (Chicago Bears)
RT Andrew Wylie (Kansas City Chiefs)
LB Cody Barton (Seattle Seahawks)

Key Subtractions

Win Totals From Last 5 Years

2022: 8
2021: 7
2020: 7
2019: 3
2018: 7

Ralph Vacchiano is the NFC East reporter for FOX Sports, covering the Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him on Twitter: @RalphVacchiano.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas