National Football League

2022 NFL Draft: Evaluating the quarterback class at midseason

Updated Oct. 22, 2021 6:28 p.m. ET

By Rob Rang
FOX Sports NFL Draft Analyst

With an NFL-record five quarterbacks selected in the top 15 last spring, scouts knew the 2022 draft might feature a significant drop-off at the game’s most important position.

Few anticipated, however, just how barren the quarterback cupboard would appear midway through the season.

Preseason darlings Spencer Rattler (Oklahoma), Sam Howell (North Carolina) and Kedon Slovis (Southern California) have struggled and might opt to return to school for another season to hone their skills.

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Meanwhile, a handful of quality candidates have stepped forward, though, unfortunately, none of them appears to be the slam-dunk first-round-caliber passer scouts have grown accustomed to seeing emerge each year.

After all, each of the past five drafts featured at least one first-round QB who leaped up draft boards seemingly out of nowhere. The recent trend of one-year wonders seducing scouts began with No. 2 overall pick Mitchell Trubisky in 2017 and has continued since with several passers climbing all the way to No. 1, including Baker Mayfield (2018), Kyler Murray (2019) and Joe Burrow (2020). Last spring, Zach Wilson (No. 2 overall) and Mac Jones (No. 15) made big climbs up the first round.

This year is unlike those, however. Scouts are anticipating that perhaps only one or two quarterbacks, at most, will be drafted in the first round. That would be a huge decline from the average of four selected each spring since 2016 and a significant departure from the QB-friendly 21st century.

Multiple quarterbacks have been drafted in every first round of the past 20 years except the Class of 2013, the one seemingly most similar to this year’s crop. The Buffalo Bills made Florida State’s EJ Manuel the only signal-caller to earn a first-round pick that year, gambling on his perceived upside at No. 16 overall.

There are those in the scouting community, in fact, who believe that even with teams willing to roll the dice on quarterbacks early, the first round could come and go this year without a single passer selected — which has not happened in the NFL draft since 1996.

With the college season now halfway over, this much appears certain: If there is to be a quarterback (or two) who earns a first-round pick next spring, he will be among the players highlighted below.

Matt Corral, Ole Miss, 6-2, 205, Redshirt Junior

Midway through his third season as the Rebels’ starter, Corral has the experience against elite competition, arm talent and athleticism that scouts are looking for in a modern-day quarterback. He has thrown 14 touchdown passes and just one interception thus far this season and has completed more than 66% of his passes in his career.

Agile and aggressive on the move, Corral has also rushed for 1,174 yards and 15 scores for the Rebels, with 450 yards and eight TDs coming in just six games this season. He has the requisite arm strength and a lightning-quick delivery, peppering defenses in the short and intermediate range.

Following the success of sandlot stars such as Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray, the NFL is increasingly on the lookout for quarterbacks who can make the incredible play, even if it occasionally leads to mistakes. In terms of eye-popping plays, Corral is without peer in this class.

Like many of the QBs on this list, however, Corral is still raw in many of the finer points of the position. He is typically a one-read passer, too often staring down his primary target and resorting to scrambles when it is taken away. While capable of buying time with his feet, Corral often leaves the pocket prematurely, and his accuracy drops when he moves off-platform. He can take something off his throws and drop balls over the top with touch, but his accuracy lessens when doing so.

Corral is an exciting talent, but his game is boosted by coach Lane Kiffin’s creative designs and playcalling. Should he opt out early for the NFL draft, Corral is likely to earn consideration in the top 50 picks, though the team willing to invest a first-round pick to acquire him is rolling the dice.

Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh, 6-2, 220, Redshirt Senior

Corral might be the flashiest of this year’s quarterback candidates, but the fastest riser is unquestionably Pickett. The redshirt senior entered the 2021 season with 36 career starts under his belt. Perhaps in large part due to that experience, Pickett plays with better command and poise than many of his peers, looking off defenders and routinely making safe passes while also demonstrating the ability to throw strikes.

Pickett entered the season with a solid 39-25 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his first four years at Pitt, but his game has jumped to another stratosphere in 2021, with him completing a little less than 70% of his passes for a sparkling 21 TDs with just one pick.

Further, while not the same caliber athlete as his peers, Pickett is no slouch, generating 740 yards and 18 scores on the ground, including 11 the past two years (three in 2021). Even better, he complements his "sneaky" athleticism with good spatial awareness, buying time in the pocket while keeping his eyes downfield for late-breaking receivers.

The concerns with Pickett are that he possesses just average size and a strong enough arm (but not a howitzer), as well as the fact that his ascension has come so suddenly. Prior to this year’s breakout, Pickett had completed "just" 60.4% of his passes with a combined 26 touchdowns (and 18 interceptions) in his previous 21 games. Further, he missed three games the prior two seasons due to injury. However, if teams are going to talk themselves into drafting a quarterback in the first round, Pickett appears to be the safest of the bunch at this point.

It has been 38 years since a Pitt quarterback was selected in the first round. That passer — some guy named Marino — went on to become a Hall of Famer, and he was the sixth quarterback selected in his famed class. Pickett won’t have to wait that long, and he might wind up being the first QB drafted this year.

Malik Willis, Liberty, 6-1, 225, Redshirt Senior

A one-time ballyhooed recruit out of Atlanta who signed with and played 15 games in the 2017 and '18 seasons at Auburn, Willis has emerged as arguably the most gifted senior quarterback prospect in the country at Liberty, working with former Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze.

Possessing a frame and game similar to those of late NFL star Steve McNair, Willis remains more of a run-first, throw-second dual-threat quarterback, but he flashes impressive accuracy at all levels, showing the ability to thread the needle with his fastball and float touch passes over the top. Of his 60 career touchdowns to this point in his career, 25 have come via the running game.

Willis has completed 65.3% of his passes but already has six interceptions in seven games this season, equaling the number he tossed all of last season. He threw three in a shocking loss to Louisiana-Monroe earlier this year.

Willis is in his second season as a starter for the Flames, an FBS independent team, and has games this season against Syracuse and Freeze’s former Ole Miss program, quarterbacked by the aforementioned Corral. That head-to-head matchup Nov. 6 promises to draw plenty of scouts.

Willis put himself on the NFL radar as a junior in 2020, guiding Liberty to a 10-1 record with a victory over Virginia Tech and barely missing out on an undefeated season, with one loss coming in a 15-14 nail-biter against North Carolina State.

A virtual shoo-in for the Senior Bowl, Willis will have plenty of opportunities to impress scouts prior to the draft and erase any concerns about his level of competition. He has many of the physical traits needed to succeed at the next level but is aided by a relatively simple offense at Liberty, relying on his first read too often. He also has a tendency to make himself shorter as a passer by throwing from a three-quarter delivery, and that could lead to plenty of passes batted down at the line at the next level.

Carson Strong, Nevada, 6-3, 215, Redshirt Junior

One of the wild cards of the 2022 (or 2023) QB class is Nevada’s Strong, the reigning Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year and one likely to repeat as the top dog in the conference as a three-year starter for the Wolfpack.

After posting solid numbers as a redshirt freshman in 2019, Strong flexed in 2020, completing an eye-popping 70.1% of his passes for 2,858 yards and 27 TDs against just four interceptions in nine games. He is on a similar pace this season, with 1,990 yards and 16 TDs with three interceptions through the first six games, completing 68.2% of his passes. Strong’s numbers are all the more impressive given that Nevada’s offense asks him to make a lot of NFL-caliber downfield throws, and the quarterback possesses the velocity, touch and accuracy to project nicely to the next level.

Besides the obvious questions some will have about Strong’s level of competition in the Mountain West — the Wolfpack's only loss this season was a 38-17 thumping at Kansas State (3-3) — there are questions about how much his game is influenced by the fact that Nevada boasts two other future NFL draft picks in wide receiver Romeo Doubs and tight end Cole Turner.

Further, Strong has already undergone three surgeries on his right knee — the first of which was to repair a torn ACL that ruined his senior season of high school and played a role in his being somewhat lightly recruited. By NFL quarterback standards, Strong is an average athlete at best. He is the least mobile of the QBs on this list, relying on his awareness to buy time in the pocket but not possessing the elusiveness or speed to scare anyone as a scrambler. Strong has not recorded a rushing touchdown in his career.

In terms of passing from the pocket, however, Strong’s accuracy and fiery leadership give him the look of a future NFL signal-caller. Assuming he gets a clean bill of health, he likely will generate consideration in the first two rounds, whenever he should make himself eligible for the draft.

Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati, 6-3, 215, Redshirt Senior

They say steel hardens steel, and given how talented the Cincinnati secondary is, Ridder is gaining experience against top competition every day in practice for the undefeated Bearcats, the No. 2 team in the latest AP poll.

Luke Fickell’s defense gets plenty of credit for the Bearcats' success — and deservedly so — but Ridder has proven to be a star since he grabbed the starting position as a redshirt freshman. He entered this season with 34 starts under his belt and a sterling 57-20 TD-to-INT ratio to go with 1,825 rushing yards and 22 scores.

Statistically speaking, Ridder has proven to be the most consistent of the quarterbacks on this list, never reaching double digits in interceptions in a single season of his career. His dual-threat abilities are well-suited to today’s up-tempo game. He did a nice job answering questions about his poise with a strong performance in South Bend, beating Notre Dame with a season-high 297 passing yards and two scores (with no interceptions), along with another 26 yards and the pull-away score.

For all of his success, however, Ridder remains more of a thrower than a passer. Often, he lobs the ball in the direction of his intended target and allows the receiver to make plays on the ball. This can result in some beautiful connections, such as the picture-perfect toss below.

However, there are some ugly, predetermined throws into coverage on tape as well, with too many passes showing only moderate ball-placement, forcing receivers to adjust and limiting run-after-the-catch potential.

The one thing scouts say about Ridder is that he is totally committed to his craft and has all the intangibles to be "the guy" at the next level.

Sam Howell, North Carolina, 6-1, 220, Junior

Howell entered the 2021 season as one of my favorite quarterback prospects, and while his play has dropped this year, he remains high on my list. Most hard-core college football fans recognize that the Tar Heels lost a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball to the NFL draft a year ago, and Howell would have been wise to follow his top two running backs (Javonte Williams and Michael Carter) and receivers (Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome) had he been eligible. Instead, he was left to carry the load for UNC this year, with predictable results.

After dominating the ACC with 68 TD passes against just 14 picks in his first two seasons, Howell’s numbers have dropped in virtually every category this season. He is completing a career-low 61.1% of his passes and has "just" 18 touchdowns with six picks.

Lost in the criticism of his game, however, is the fact that Howell has nearly tripled his rushing yards and already matched his previous career high of five rushing touchdowns this season.

His tape screams of a player attempting to do everything for his team, sometimes to its (and his own) detriment. It does not take too much Carolina blue-tinted glasses, however, to imagine his stock falling less with the NFL than with the media, especially when he is projected with better supporting talent.

Howell lacks ideal size, but he has shown durability, toughness and competitiveness throughout his career, as well as good accuracy to all levels of the field. He reads defenses well, often looking off opponents only to come back and bite them. Howell is the type of player who will earn Day 2 grades from scouts but could sneak into the first round.

One of the most recognized names in the industry, Rob Rang has been covering the NFL Draft for more than 20 years, with work at FOX, Sports Illustrated, CBSSports.com, USA Today, Yahoo, NFL.com and NFLDraftScout.com, among others.