2021 NFL season win total over/unders and picks for all 32 teams
By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The 2021 schedule is out, which means it’s time to look at season win totals for every team in the NFL.
Yes, lines have been out at FOX Bet for a few weeks now. But the intricacies of the schedule should impact your wagers. Travel considerations matter, especially for the coastal teams that log the most travel miles, as do road trips and short weeks.
Let’s dig in with our first impressions (with all odds via FOX Bet).
The Bills are a legit Super Bowl contender, retained offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, and play in a division with three teams wobbly at QB. I have a play on the over. Coach Sean McDermott is 4-0 to the over as a head coach, and his Bills won nine of 10 last year to close out the regular season, the only loss coming on Kyler Murray's "Hail Mary" touchdown pass.
The only cause for concern: Was Josh Allen’s incredible season (69% completions, 37 TDs, 10 INTs) an outlier, and is regression coming?
The Dolphins were one of the luckiest teams in the NFL last season. They were a top 10 special teams unit and ranked third in turnover differential. They led the NFL in interceptions. If the defense and special teams don’t generate points, can second-year QB Tua Tagovailoa, who was benched twice?
Oh, and it’s worth noting the Dolphins will have their third offensive coordinator in three seasons under Brian Flores. Strong lean to the under.
So many questions. Does Cam Newton start at QB? Why did the Patriots spend so much on free agency when Bill Belichick never does? I have no read on this team. We’re talking about a brand new Patriots team with as many as nine new starters.
New coach, new QB, new offensive system, new culture. There’s a ton of uncertainty about the Jets, and I haven’t even gotten to their secondary issues. For now, it’s a pass, but as summer progresses, I will consider the over.
Difficult division with two new starters on the right side of Lamar Jackson’s offensive line, and their top two edge rushers are gone. Slight lean to the under, but not a wager for me. Before you run to fade Lamar Jackson, just remember that John Harbaugh is 8-4-1 in his career to the season win total over.
There’s so much to like about this offense under Joe Burrow, and remember, this team started last season on fire ATS, going 6-2 before fading after the QB’s injury. A slight lean to the under because I still don’t have confidence in Zac Taylor as a coach, and the defense needs a major talent infusion.
One of my stronger plays, and I like it up to 10.5 (with no juice!). Odell Beckham is healthy, the Browns have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and the defense leveled up in the secondary and on the line. Roster-wise, the Browns have a strong case for top five in the league. The biggest question is how Baker Mayfield handles success, and the burden of playing for a huge money second contract. Starting with the Chiefs is never fun – just like last year, when they were smoked by Baltimore in Week 1.
My heart and head say under. But the numbers say Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in Pittsburgh (14 seasons). They also say the Steelers play 10 teams that made the playoffs last year. And Ben Roethlisberger’s numbers in the second half of the season were atrocious (10 interceptions in seven games). Pass for now, but if you need more ammo to ponder the under, they did go 7-2 in one-score games last year.
That’s a very low number, but you must consider the Deshaun Watson situation. Between his legal trouble and vowing he’s not playing for the Texans again, this could be a historically bad team. The roster will have you scurrying to Google. Under or pass for me.
Ever-so-slight lean to the under here. There’s a lot to love about the Colts, from their secondary to their coach to their young skill position players. But there’s a massive hole at left tackle. Relying on 30-year old Eric Fisher to be the guy coming off an Achilles injury is a massive risk. And he’ll be protecting Carson Wentz, who led the league in sacks taken last year because he holds the ball so long.
I’m drinking the Trevor Lawrence Kool-Aid, which was stirred by Urban Meyer. Give me the over. Give me the long shot odds to win the weak AFC South. After going 1-6 in one-score games last year, I can see that easily flipping. Reminder: Lawrence has never lost a regular-season football game in his life. Undefeated in high school and at Clemson. But no, they won’t go 17-0 in his rookie year.
Even in a weak division, I’m looking at major regression from the Titans, who will have a new offensive coordinator, a worn-down Derrick Henry (led NFL in carries two years in a row), and they didn’t replace a departed tight end or receiver. After going 7-3 in one-score games this year, I’m not sure they’ll get that fortunate again. I took the under.
The Broncos were decimated by injuries last year at the skill positions, but head coach Vic Fangio survived for another season. I’ve already bet their win total over for 2021. The Broncos had an A+ offseason, securing impact rookie RB Javonte Williams (led college football with 75 broken tackles in 2020) and CB Patrick Surtain, and they locked up CB Kyle Fuller in free agency. Bonus: If you bet the Broncos and they upgrade their weakest position (QB) by trading for Aaron Rodgers, you got a great number.
I could write a chapter on why I don’t like the Raiders this season, but I’ll save that for the midsummer gambling blueprint. From the offensive line questions, to the defense questions, to Jon Gruden being 19-29 in his first three seasons, I see no reasons for optimism. Under or pass for me.
Had been hoping for a lower number, because I am bullish on the Chargers this season. When you can upgrade a bad offensive line with an All-Pro center and a left tackle in the first round, you’ve gotten better. First-time head coach Brandon Staley has my attention, given how much he improved the Rams defense last year. I’ll take the over.
No play here, but I’d look at the under if anything. Yes, they went 14-2, but it looks like they’ll have four new starters on the offensive line. After three straight years dominating the AFC, you wonder if they slog through the regular season.
There’s clearly a Cowboys "tax" which is why this number is so high. If you bet it, just know you’re going to live and die with the health of a cratering offensive line and a horrible defense that Dan Quinn is trying to "coach up."
QB is the key to every team in the league, but perhaps no signal-caller matters more to its team’s hopes in the NFC than Daniel Jones. He has been sacked 82 times in the last 27 games. He has 22 interceptions and 29 fumbles in that time span. Given the offseason spending, there’s pressure, and he’ll face a tough Denver defense in Week 1. If you believe he can turn it around, take the over. I’m passing.
New coach, second-year QB in Jalen Hurts, aging offensive line, poor defense – how do you make a case for the over, even though this is one of the lowest numbers in the NFC? But if you’re just betting the number, you kinda have to take the over. They should win three in the division, and the schedule is very manageable.
I want to take the over because this defense, which added William Jackson at corner and drafted promising Jamin Davis. Washington has the best pair of corners in the division. But when does Ryan Fitzpatrick turn into a pumpkin? He’s 38 and historically has followed a good season with a shaky one.
I wasn’t sure if 7.5 was the number of games Andy Dalton would start or the season win total. Not feeling this team at all, whether it’s Dalton or Justin Fields under center. Under or pass. Open with the Rams on SNF and it will be downhill from there.
Perhaps the weakest collection of skill position players in the NFL. The Lions are two years away from being two years away. The division is shaky with the Aaron Rodgers uncertainty, or I’d really hammer the under.
Green Bay Packers: OFF THE BOARD
The Aaron Rodgers trade scenarios make this tricky, but the under is a strong lean even with Rodgers in Lambeau. The schedule is brutal, and the Packers are tied for the most games against 2020 playoff with 10.
Is there a team in the NFC fewer people are talking about than the Vikings? Sneaky over play for me. Mike Zimmer’s too good of a coach for back-to-back clunkers. They never rebounded from last year’s 0-3 start – all to eventual playoff teams – but the schedule early isn’t as difficult.
Worth keeping an eye on, and not just to see what happens with Julio Jones. After going 2-8 in one-score games last year, they have a new coach in Arthur Smith. I’m looking hard at the over.
Curious how they hung this high of a number with Drew Brees having retired and New Orleans having to make some salary cap concessions. And why do they have five games in prime time? Yes, they were 8-1 without Brees the last two years. I’ll say it: I’m not a Jameis Winston believer.
If you squint, you can see a team that runs the table in the regular season. No Super Bowl winner has ever returned all 22 offensive and defensive starters. We’ll see how they handle being the hunted. Obligatory "Tom Brady is old and no QB the age of 44 has ever done anything good in the NFL." The GOAT turns 44 in August.
One of my favorite NFC overs. Despite massive defensive injuries last year, they still ranked 10th in DVOA. J.J. Watt will bring leadership to a young locker room that struggled in the fourth quarter – mostly, because Kliff Kingsbury made some curious decisions.
Losing four defensive starters from the best unit in the league might be offset by the addition of Matt Stafford, who should help this offense make the jump to light speed. Schedule is arduous, as they face eight playoff teams from a year ago.
Most mysterious team in the NFC. Jimmy Garoppolo is the starter all year … right? The defense lost coordinator Robert Saleh, and DeMeco Ryans is a rookie DC. The talent’s there, but you wonder what the offseason QB discussion did to the team chemistry. Uncertainty = pass for me.
Russell Wilson isn’t happy. The Seahawks went 8-3 in one-score games last year. Sure, Seattle has double-digit wins in eight of the last nine seasons, but the division is loaded and frankly, I don’t see it in the trenches. Under or pass.
For more up-to-date news on all things NFL, click here to register for alerts on the FOX Sports app!
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.