2017 NFL Free Agency: Every Team's Top Potential Cap Casualty
With 2017 NFL free agency now approaching rapidly, here’s a look at each team’s top option to become a cap casualty this offseason.
The NFL offseason has arrived, which means a lot of lives around the league are about to change. Players are going to change teams via free agency, new players are going to enter the league via the 2017 NFL Draft, and several players will be released for a number of reasons.
One of the main reasons players are shown the door is due to financial constraints. Teams in need of cap space are forced to sever ties with players taking up too much of it. It’s one of the true examples of the NFL being a business, and it’s a difficult reality for many folks to swallow when the ax falls.
So who could some of these cap casualties be in 2017? There are plenty of candidates, with some teams offering more than others. Instead of focusing in on the main ones, I’m going to pinpoint every team’s top potential cap casualty, with their cap figures and potential savings included for reference.
So here we go. Let’s take a look at every NFL team’s top potential cap casualty heading into the 2017 offseason.
Note: All cap figures and potential savings totals courtesy of Spotrac.com.
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Arizona Cardinals: Tyvon Branch, CB
2017 cap hit: $4,187,500
Potential savings: $3,687,500
Throughout the 2016 campaign, the Cardinals searched far and wide for someone to hold down the starting cornerback position opposite Patrick Peterson. They never really found a reliable candidate, even after Tyvon Branch gave it a shot.
It obviously didn’t help that he ended the year on IR after tearing his groin. However, it further emphasized the fact that Branch simply can’t stay healthy. In three of his last four seasons, he’s played in six or less games before watching his year come to a premature end.
With the Cardinals likely to look for further reinforcements this offseason, it seems reasonable to consider Branch a potential cap casualty. He’s set to count more than $4 million against the cap, but Arizona can save all but $500,000 of that by bidding him farewell.
If it wasn’t for his lingering health concerns,I I’d say keep him around for another year. However, with the Cardinals already a tad low on funds this offseason, they can’t invest so much in a defensive back who simply can’t stay on the field.
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Atlanta Falcons: Tyson Jackson, DE
2017 cap hit: $5.85 million
Potential savings: $4.25 million (post-June 1 cut)
Realistically, this will come as no surprise for Tyson Jackson. Since joining the Falcons in 2014, he’s seen his production, usage and efficiency decline on an annual basis.
It doesn’t help his cause that he’s set to bring in $5.85 million in 2017. With how many young assets the Atlanta defensive line has to offer, it almost seems unnecessary to retain a declining veteran like Jackson.
Not convinced Jackson is really worth moving on from? Well how about this little tidbit—since coming to Atlanta, the former first-round pick has yet to record a sack. In that same timespan, he’s amassed 28 total tackles in 48 games. Even the Cleveland Browns wouldn’t pay $5.85 million for that type of production.
With players such as Grady Jarrett and Ra’Shede Hageman in need of more snaps, there’s just no room for Jackson. Barring some unforeseen development, the Falcons will move on from the 30-year-old veteran this offseason.
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Baltimore Ravens: Elvis Dumervil, OLB
2017 cap hit: $8.375 million
Potential savings: $6 million
At 33 years of age, Elvis Dumervil continues to slow as his body wears down. Having missed eight games this past season, it appears likely the Ravens will move on from the former All-Pro outside linebacker.
All year long, Dumervil battled a foot injury that cost him half of his season. While he still racked up three sacks and was an effective part of the pass rush, it’s getting to the point where his unavailability is becoming too common. The Ravens simply need more bang for their buck, especially off the edge.
It also happens that Baltimore has a few promising young prospects at outside linebacker. Za’Darius Smith, Matt Judon and Kamalei Correa all possess significant upside, but need to see more snaps moving forward. By moving on from Dumervil, the Ravens can provide them with that added playing time.
The Baltimore Sun already speculated that Dumervil would be a cap casualty this offseason. Based on his recent rash of injuries and age, it appears the Ravens will be saving $6 million against the cap in 2017.
Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
Buffalo Bills: Tyrod Taylor, QB
2017 cap hit: $15,913,334
Potential savings: $13.06 million
I’m a bit baffled to think the Bills would throw in the towel on Tyrod Taylor. And yet, here we are talking about it like it’s a serious possibility.
There’s been a lot of speculation since season’s end regarding the future at quarterback in Buffalo. While Taylor wasn’t a disappointment by any means this year, he helped the Bills finish with the 30th-ranked passing attack in the NFL. That fact can make it difficult to justify the signal caller’s gaudy figures for 2017.
To make matters worse, Taylor’s contract also includes a team-option that would pay him a $15.5 million bonus if exercised by March 11. His 2017 salary and part of his 2018 salary would also be guaranteed at that time. That’s a lot of money for one team to spend on a quarterback they clearly aren’t sold on.
Unfortunately for Buffalo, there aren’t many other options available. Taylor is likely better than anyone they’ll find via free agency, and don’t have the draft positioning necessary to land one of the top 2017 prospects. We’ll see what happens, but it seems like a sticky situation for the Bills either way.
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
Carolina Panthers: Jonathan Stewart, RB
2017 cap hit: $8.25 million
Potential savings: $6.25 million (post-June 1 cut)
It seems a bit dramatic to say Jonathan Stewart could be released this offseason. Despite a down statistical year in 2016, the soon-to-be 30-year-old back is still performing at a high level. He played behind an injury-ravaged offensive line, and dealt with his own health issues.
Still, as ESPN’s David Newton mentioned at season’s end, there’s a possibility the Panthers start fresh at running back this offseason.
Stewart isn’t getting any younger, and has missed 26 games in the last five years. Although he continues to excel as the thunder in Carolina’s offense, it’s becoming clear that the tread is starting to wear thin on his tires. As we all know, 30 is usually considered the threshold for the start of running back decline.
Assuming that’s the case, it seems a bit unrealistic to spend $8.25 million on Stewart in 2017. Instead, the Panthers could ask him to restructure or simply opt to part ways with the veteran back. Doing so would save them significant cap space, even though they don’t necessarily have a huge need for more room heading into the offseason.
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Chicago Bears: Jay Cutler, QB
2017 cap hit: $16 million
Potential savings: $14 million
Bears fans have been saying it’s unnecessary for years, but the time has come. Jay Cutler will be handed his walking papers this offseason with no guaranteed money remaining on his contract. His time as Chicago’s most polarizing player is up.
Depending on how this offseason plays out for the Bears, it could be a good thing. They get plenty of cap space back, and have a shiny No. 3 overall pick to use on a new quarterback. Targeting a free agent is also an option, but pickings will be slim unless Kirk Cousins is allowed to test the waters.
Either way, both parties need this to happen. Cutler has been mocked endlessly during his days in the Windy City, sometimes for no good reason. However, his proneness to injury, poor demeanor and lack of consistent success appear to have finally done him in.
So what does the future hold for Cutler? No one knows for sure, although I’d guess there will be plenty of interest when he hits the open market. Either way, the Bears need a fresh start under center and should get it in the next couple of months when Cutler becomes one of the most understandable cap casualties of 2017.
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Cleveland Browns: Josh McCown, QB
2017 cap hit: $5,041,667
Potential savings: $4.375 million
I just can’t see a scenario where Josh McCown is on this roster in 2017. There’s been a lot of talk about the veteran journeyman calling it a career after another injury-filled season. Even if that isn’t the case, I find it hard to believe the Browns will keep him around with how much he’s owed.
If he’s off the roster before the start of the new league year, it’ll save Cleveland about $4.375 million against the cap. Their savings drop a bit if he leaves after that, but either way it’s money back in the Browns’ pocket. While they don’t necessarily need the cap space, spending it on McCown is pointless.
The Browns already have a few serviceable options at quarterback in Robert Griffin III, Cody Kessler, and Kevin Hogan. There’s no need to keep McCown around, and there’s no reason to keep paying him if he’s already contemplating retirement. Seeing as the Browns will likely also add a quarterback via the draft, it appears McCown’s time is up.
Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports
Cincinnati Bengals: Rey Maualuga, ILB
2017 cap hit: $3.7 million
Potential savings: $3.7 million
Rey Maualuga’s time in Cincinnati has been great. Unfortunately, at 30 years of age, it appears the former USC star is starting to lose a step. It’s been a roller coaster ride of a career for Maualuga, who has had some bad years followed by timely bounce-back seasons. Unfortunately, he’s coming off a down 2016 campaign and likely is no longer worth the $3.7 million he’s scheduled to make this upcoming season.
Realistically, the Bengals would be better off finding a younger, more athletic option in the middle. Chances are they’ll spend a draft pick at the position this offseason, or they could sign one via free agency. Either way, finding a replacement for Maualuga seems like it should be a priority for Cincinnati in the coming months.
Maualuga has had a long, lustrous career with the Bengals. Unfortunately, age and injuries appear to have gotten the best of the veteran linebacker. It’s time for him to take his talents elsewhere, likely as a quality backup.
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Dallas Cowboys: Tony Romo, QB
2017 cap hit: $24.7 million
Potential savings: $5.1 million
It’s a sad development, but it appears Tony Romo is no longer needed in Dallas. With the emergence of rookie Dak Prescott, the Cowboys have their quarterback of the future. More importantly, Jerry Jones simply isn’t going to take a $24.7 million cap hit on an aging, injury-prone backup.
While the Cowboys can only recoup so much of that money, there’s just no way Romo sticks around with those figures. The reasonable guess would be he’s designated as a post-June 1 cut, which would allow Dallas to spread the dead cap out over the next two years. It’s not ideal, but that’s what happens when you sign these quarterbacks to massive deals.
Still, the road doesn’t appear to end here for Romo. More than likely, he’ll latch on elsewhere with the potential to regain his pre-injury form. We only caught a brief glimpse of him this season, but it seems as though he’s ready to get back out there.
Unless he surprisingly opts to retire, Romo should be wearing a different jersey in 2017.
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Denver Broncos: Russell Okung, OT
2017 cap hit: $11.7 million
Potential savings: $11.7 million
Let’s be honest—Russell Okung is no long-term answer for the Broncos at left tackle. The team signed him to be a stop-gap, and that’s likely still the plan for the injury-prone blindside blocker.
Now don’t get me wrong. Throughout the 2016 season, Okung was a solid piece of the Denver offensive line. Although nothing special at this point in his career, he proved more than capable of holding down the left side without too much trouble. Moving forward, though, the Broncos need something better.
As I discussed in my recent seven-round mock draft for Denver, the team will likely target a couple of offensive linemen during the 2017 NFL Draft. The Broncos will obviously be hoping to find a left tackle of the future while adding depth at other positions. If that’s the case, chances are high Okung could be shown the door.
Especially with no dead money resulting from his departure, Okung makes too much sense as a potential cap casualty for Denver.
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Detroit Lions: Haloti Ngata, DT
2017 cap hit: $7.75 million
Potential savings: $5.75 million
Since arriving in Detroit, Haloti Ngata hasn’t been the same disruptive force he was during his time in Baltimore. While he hasn’t necessarily been bad either, it’s clear he’s starting to slow with every passing season.
That’s why it doesn’t make sense to me to keep him for $7.75 million—he’s more a big name than a star player at this point. Again, I’m not saying he’s a poor excuse for a starter. I just don’t think he’s worth the price the Lions are paying to keep him on the roster.
Especially with youngsters like A’Shawn Robinson and Kerry Hyder looking for more snaps, it makes sense for the Lions to weigh their options with Ngata. He could easily be asked to take a pay cut to save some cap space, but I’m not sure he’d be willing to accept such a proposal at this point in his career.
If that’s the case, the Lions would likely bid him farewell. It’s been a great run in Detroit, but Ngata is no longer worth the big bucks. Unless he decides to retire, the massive defensive tackle will definitely land on his feet during free agency.
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Green Bay Packers: Clay Matthews, OLB
2017 Cap Hit: $15.2 million
Potential Savings: $11.1 million
This may come as a surprise but I assure you it’s for real. You can seriously consider Clay Matthews a potential cap casualty this offseason. As strange as that may seem, it’s well warranted. Matthews is set to make a huge amount of money in 2017, but is coming off another disappointing season that saw him regress a bit more. Put simply, we just haven’t seen the Matthews of old in recent years.
Now I will say that there’s a very good chance the Packers simply convince him to take a pay cut. He’s still one of Green Bay’s leaders and a mainstay on this roster. On top of that, he still makes plenty of plays–just not as often or with as much efficiency. It’s like the switch back to outside linebacker just threw off his game.
I’d predict that Matthews is still a Packer come Week 1. However, if he’s unwilling to restructure his deal, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the team cut him loose. It’s just too much money to spend on a player who appears to be rapidly declining.
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Houston Texans: Brandon Weeden, QB
2017 cap hit: $2.15 million
Potential savings: $2.15 million
Surprisingly, the Texans don’t have a ton of potential cap casualties heading into 2017. I’m sure they’d love to get their money back on Brock Osweiler, but they’d incur too much dead cap space by letting him go ($25 million).
With Osweiler stuck on the roster and Tom Savage still a decent backup option, there are only so many roster spots to go around at quarterback. Especially with the Texans expected to pursue Tony Romo or look to the draft for a new gunslinger, it’s looking like there may be zero space for Brandon Weeden.
By cutting the journeyman, Houston would save a sizable amount against the cap. It’s not an overwhelming amount like some of the folks on this list, but it’s still $2.15 million.
Only expected to have about $25 million to work with this offseason, the Texans can use all the extra space they can get. In this situation, they can get rid of their third-string quarterback and save some money in the process. A no-brainer if you ask me.
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Indianapolis Colts: Arthur Jones, DT
2017 cap hit: $7.35 million
Potential savings: $5.15 million
Things haven’t gone well for Arthur Jones over the last couple of seasons. This past year, a groin injury and a four-game suspension made his declining production (and talent) all the more apparent.
Just ask Pro Football Focus, which graded Jones as one of the worst interior defenders in the NFL in 2016. It’s clear he’s no longer the dominant presence at defensive tackle he used to be, and is starting to become too much of a headache for the Colts to keep around.
Especially with more than $5 million in potential savings, it seems nearly guaranteed something will be done with Jones this offseason. Whether Indianapolis forces him to take a pay cut or simply releases him, change is just around the corner.
The Colts have several young defensive lineman capable of picking up the slack. Between Henry Anderson, T.Y. McGill and David Parry, replacing Jones as the starter shouldn’t be too difficult. Expect a move soon, no matter what route Jim Irsay chooses to take.
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Jacksonville Jaguars: Jared Odrick, DE
2017 cap hit: $8.5 million
Potential savings: $8.5 million
It blows my mind Jared Odrick is set to make $8.5 million in 2017. The Jaguars signed him to be a stout presence along their defensive front, and he’s done little to live up to that expectation. So it only makes sense for Jacksonville to give him the ax this offseason. There’s simply no reason for him to be raking in that type of money, especially after how the 2016 campaign played out. It makes it even easier of a decision when you consider it would create no dead cap space.
Last year, Odrick was active for just six games before falling to a season-ending elbow injury. During those six games, he was extremely ineffective, tallying only nine tackles and one sack. Trust me when I say that the Jaguars didn’t get their money’s worth. Chances are they won’t get it again in 2017.
It was an interesting idea when the Jaguars initially signed Odrick thinking he hadn’t yet reached his true potential. However, based on what we’ve seen so far, it seems reasonable to conclude that there isn’t much more potential to unlock. A parting of ways seems likely at this point.
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Kansas City Chiefs: Nick Foles, QB
2017 cap hit: $10.75 million
Potential savings: $10.75 million
I almost kind of feel bad for Nick Foles. Based on his figures, lack of playtime in 2016, and the fact that the Chiefs have another decent backup quarterback, there’s almost zero chance he isn’t cut loose at some point this offseason.
There’s just no reason to be paying a guy like Foles $10.75 million to hold a clipboard. It’s not like Alex Smith is injury prone, and Kansas City does a great job of protecting him.
Now obviously Foles does bring some value. Throughout his NFL career, he’s shown an ability to lead an offense with relative success. Unfortunately, especially during his days with the St. Louis Rams, he’s also shown an inability to consistently put points on the board.
Unless he’s willing to take a major pay cut to stay in Kansas City, I don’t foresee him sticking with the team in 2017. Luckily for Foles, I think he’s shown enough in five seasons that he should be able to latch on elsewhere as a quality No. 2 quarterback—just not for the same money he was scheduled to get from the Chiefs.
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Los Angeles Chargers: Brandon Flowers, CB
2017 cap hit: $11 million
Potential savings: $9 million (post-June 1 cut)
As great as Brandon Flowers has been at times, it appears his days with the Chargers are coming to a close. The aging, injury-prone cornerback can’t stay on the field on a weekly basis, and costs way too much for what he gives in return.
Especially with all of this franchise’s upcoming changes, the Chargers need a fresh start. That means trimming the fat and bringing in some young, high-upside talent to give Los Angeles fans a reason to watch. I can assure you Flowers doesn’t fit into that equation if that is the case.
The addition of Gus Bradley also means the Chargers should be looking to make some upgrades on defense. Flowers is a solid starter, but has been limited by injuries and age during recent seasons. Especially with Jason Verrett and Casey Heyward on the roster, he seems rather expendable.
With $9 million in potential savings, Flowers is all but guaranteed to be gone this season. Honestly, it’s an overdue move based on what we’ve seen recently from the veteran cornerback.
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Los Angeles Rams: Lance Kendricks, TE
2017 cap hit: $4.25 million
Potential savings: $4.25 million
Sure, Lance Kendricks had somewhat of a career year in 2016. Despite the Rams fielding a miserable offense featuring awful passing, the sixth-year tight end hauled in 50 passes for 499 yards and two touchdowns. The numbers, however, don’t tell the whole story.
Despite a career-high in receptions, Kendricks continued to underwhelm in a starting role. While he proved to be a decent check-down option for the Rams’ passers, the big-play abilities were nearly non-existent. Is that type of production really worth $4.25 million?
I would say no. It also doesn’t help Kendricks’ case when you consider Los Angeles drafted two tight ends last offseason. The team appears to like Tyler Higbee’s long-term outlook, and Temarrick Hemingway also offers some upside. If one of the two shines early during the Rams’ offseason program, Kendricks could become expendable.
Los Angeles doesn’t have a ton of cap space to work with this offseason. If they get to the point where they need some flexibility, Kendricks seems like a strong candidate for release.
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Miami Dolphins: Mario Williams, DE
2017 cap hit: $10.5 million
Potential savings: $8.5 million
It didn’t take long for Mario Williams to fall out favor during his stint with the Buffalo Bills. Now it appears he’s suffering the same fate with the Dolphins after only one season with the team. It’s no surprise Williams will likely be a one-and-done in Miami. The former All-Pro defensive end appears to have lost his drive for success, often playing with minimal motor. As a result, his production and effectiveness have taken a significant hit over the years.
That was none more apparent this past season in South Beach. Despite playing in 13 games (five starts), Williams managed only 13 tackles and 1.5 sacks. Although he wasn’t completely worthless out on the field, there was a steep decline in his ability to get into the opposing backfield at a decent rate.
With $8.5 million in savings on the line, it’s nearly guaranteed the Dolphins will cut the cord. That leaves Williams’ future in the NFL unsure at best, with a one-year bargain deal the likely outcome if he even chooses to continue his career in 2017.
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Minnesota Vikings: Adrian Peterson, RB
2017 cap hit: $18 million
Potential savings: $18 million
Believe it or not, we may have already seen the last of Adrian Peterson as a Viking. His contract includes an $18 million team option, which must be exercised by early February. Unless he’s willing to take a pay cut, Minnesota simply isn’t going to pay him that much.
Realistically, there’s just no reason to pay a running back in today’s NFL that kind of money. The second-highest cap hit among running backs in 2017 goes to LeSean McCoy, who will count just over $9 million less against the Buffalo Bills’ cap than Peterson will against the Vikings’ cap. That’s just bonkers.
Especially with Sam Bradford taking up a big chunk of the cap and Xavier Rhodes heading into a contract year, the Vikings need some room to breathe. Getting rid of Peterson’s massive number would obviously provide that in a big way. Coming off a 2016 campaign during which he was awful in limited action, Peterson has to understand his value is falling fast.
I’m sure the Vikings will do everything they can to restructure, which Peterson hasn’t ruled out as an option (via the Pioneer Press). However, if he’s unwilling to work out a deal, you can bet Minnesota sends him packing.
Danny Amendola New England Patriots
New England Patriots: Danny Amendola, WR
2017 cap hit: $7,916,668
Potential savings: $6.5 million
At times, Danny Amendola has been an excellent asset for the Patriots. Not only can he catch the football pretty well, but he’s a good return man and has the ability to throw it as well. Unfortunately, his time in New England may soon be up.
Currently, the Patriots have more than enough talent at wide receiver. Julian Edelman is still the man, and the team spent big money to sign Chris Hogan last offseason. Malcolm Mitchell enjoyed a breakout rookie campaign, and the upside is very high with Michael Floyd. Oh, and then they still have Rob Gronkowski to embarrass opposing defenses when he’s healthy.
I just don’t see where Amendola really fits into that picture. Just look at the how the Patriots used him leading up to their trip to the Super Bowl. He was an afterthought on that offense, and isn’t being used as a returner with Edelman and Dion Lewis in the lineup.
With a nearly $8 million cap hit, Amendola simply isn’t worth that type of money. It makes too much sense for New England to save themselves some serious cash by severing ties with the concussion-prone wide receiver.
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New Orleans Saints: Jairus Byrd, FS
2017 cap hit: $11.7 million
Potential savings: $8.3 million (post-June 1 cut)
I’m sure Saints fans will know what I mean when I say it’s baffling that Jairus Byrd is set to make $11.7 million in 2017. He was signed to be a star for this New Orleans secondary, but has been little more than a bust since coming to the Bayou.
Especially with the Saints in need of some cap space, it only makes sense to release one of their most disappointing players. I mean, Byrd was benched at one point during the 2016 campaign. I’m sure you’ll agree with me that $11.7 million players shouldn’t get benched.
It doesn’t help Byrd’s case that rookie Vonn Bell showed well when playing in his place. Although the Ohio State product still needs work in coverage, he displayed outstanding abilities against the run and costs a fraction of the price.
So why would the Saints keep Byrd around in 2017? They can save plenty of cap space by showing him the door. My guess is they do exactly that in the near future.
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New York Giants: Victor Cruz, WR
2017 cap hit: $9.4 million
Potential savings: $7.5 million
Right now, the Giants are loaded at wide receiver. Unfortunately, that likely means someone has to assume the unwanted role of odd man out. If I had to venture a guess, I’d say that role is about to belong to Victor Cruz.
We all know Odell Beckham Jr. is the star of the show. He’s coming up on his fourth year, and could very well get a contract extension soon considering he’s already one of the best receivers in the NFL. Then there’s Sterling Shephard, who enjoyed a breakout rookie season in 2016. Undrafted rookie Roger Lewis also looked like a steal.
So where does Cruz fit into the equation? Simple—he doesn’t.
While he’s been an integral part of this New York offense over the years, Cruz can’t be relied upon anymore. He’s constantly injured, and is streaky when healthy enough to see the field. It won’t be an easy move to make, especially considering how the Giants faithful have embraced Cruz. Still, with so much potential savings, it just makes sense for the G-Men to hand him his walking papers.
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New York Jets: Darrelle Revis, CB
2017 cap hit: $15,333,333
Potential savings: $9,333,333
Boy, was it a bad year for Darrelle Revis or what? Once considered one of the NFL’s true shutdown cornerbacks, it appears age has gotten the best of him. It’s to the point where the Jets are contemplating a potential switch to safety.
If that’s the case, there’s just no way they pay him more than $15 million for the 2017 season. That type of money for an aging, slowing safety is just nuts.
Jets owner Woody Johnson already hinted at a parting between the two parties. The organization is well aware of Revis’ struggles this past year, and simply won’t be willing to dish out that type of dough for similar results. Even if he is willing to play on a restructured deal (unlikely), does New York actually want him at this point?
By all appearances, this relationship is coming to an end. It’s a disappointing turn for Revis’ career to take after how dominant he was only a couple of years ago. My guess is he’d land with a team desperate for secondary help, but he’s not getting anywhere near the money he’s owed by the Jets right now.
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Oakland (Las Vegas?) Raiders: Dan Williams, DT
2017 cap hit: $4.5 million
Potential savings: $4.5 million
One way or another, the Raiders need to make a change at defensive tackle this offseason. The position appeared to be one of the team’s strengths heading into 2016, but that was far from the case.
Instead, Oakland failed to see consistent play from any of its contributors along the interior. Dan Williams appeared to take a step backwards, Justin Ellis was hurt and it showed, Stacy McGee played well but also battled injuries, and the rest of the depth chart was generally ineffective.
While other players could be shown the door as well, Williams is making the most money of the group. With the Raiders expected to add another defensive tackle early during the 2017 NFL Draft, it seems reasonable to guess they’d part with the player who frees up the most money.
Especially with no resulting dead cap space, Williams appears to be a serious potential cap casualty. The Raiders could just as easily keep him around, but I think a change is needed in the middle. My guess is they add some young talent this offseason and let Williams test his value via free agency.
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Philadelphia Eagles: Connor Barwin, DE
2017 cap hit: $8.35 million
Potential savings: $7.75 million
Since having a career year in 2014, Connor Barwin has seen a significant decline in his play. Last season was no exception, as he managed only five sacks and earned miserable marks from Pro Football Focus.
With the Eagles in a tight financial situation heading into 2017, chances are they look for several avenues to trim some fat from the roster. While I believe Barwin is still a capable playmaker, he could easily become a cap casualty due to his overpriced contract and bloated cap hit.
I could also see Philadelphia parting ways with players such as Ryan Mathews and Jason Kelce. However, neither player leaving would yield the same amount of cap space as the release of Barwin would.
In the end, if this happens it’ll be solely for financial reasons. Barwin is still a solid starter who just had a down year in 2016. I wouldn’t necessarily say he’s worth the $8.35 million he’s set to make next season, but he might not be as legitimate of a potential cap casualty if he were playing for a team in a better financial situation.
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Pittsburgh Steelers: Ladarius Green, TE
2017 cap hit: $6,187,500
Potential savings: $5 million (post-June 1 cut)
For most of his career, Ladarius Green has amounted to little more than unrealized potential. The Steelers gambled on the high-upside tight end last offseason, but I don’t think they got their money’s worth in 2016.
While dealing with a number of injuries, Green managed to play in only six games this season. Even when he was healthy, he was wildly inconsistent in terms of effectiveness. Of his 304 receiving yards in 2016, 110 of them came in one game. On top of that, he only found the end zone once.
It seems a bit quick to give up on a player with so much physical ability. Despite that, it’s not out of the question if Pittsburgh determines it’s seen enough. Green can’t stay healthy, and can’t be relied on for production when he actually sees the field.
By designating him as a post-June 1 cut, they can save $5 million against the 2017 cap. I don’t imagine they make that move, but it is a feasible option if Green can’t prove he’s ready to contribute on a larger scale.
Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
San Francisco 49ers: Colin Kaepernick, QB
2017 cap hit: $19,365,753
Potential savings: $14,434,246 savings
It’s a bit mind-boggling how badly the Colin Kaepernick contract came back to bite the 49ers. They handed the young, relatively unproven quarterback a blockbuster deal, and here we are laughing at (or wallowing over) how it worked out for them.
Either way, it’s time for San Francisco to move on. After reworking his deal this past season, Kaepernick can opt out this offseason and make himself a free agent. Seeing as that’s the most likely outcome, it appears the 49ers will finally be ridding themselves of this ill-advised contract.
More importantly, San Francisco gets a fresh start—in a number of ways. Chip Kelly is gone after one disastrous season, and Kaepernick is out of the locker room and off the books. And with the second overall pick, the 49ers have their choice of the 2017 draft class’ top young arms.
When Kaepernick broke out for the 49ers in 2012, it seemed the two parties were primed for a long and prosperous relationship. Instead, it all came crashing down in a highly publicized divorce. Maybe this will be a lesson for San Francisco to have some patience when handing out massive contracts.
Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Seattle Seahawks: Jimmy Graham, TE
2017 cap hit: $10 million
Potential savings: $10 million
Let me preface this by saying that the Seahawks had almost no clear-cut cap casualty candidates. The majority of their players making big money earned it this past season, or there would be too much dead cap space incurred by cutting them.
So we’ll go with the guy who has been mentioned in the past as an option—although an unlikely one. I mean, Pete Carroll did hint that Jimmy Graham would be back in 2017 after a bounce-back season (via ESPN).
Still, it’ll likely be a bit tempting for Seattle considering they’d save $10 million by letting Graham go. Obviously that would also mean parting ways with one of their top offensive weapons. It’s a difficult decision to make, but that’s why those front office guys make the big bucks.
Realistically, I don’t see it happening. Chances are they’ll extend him before the season, allowing them to spread his cap hit out for a few years. If not, then the Seahawks will let him test the open market next offseason or try to make a trade in 2017. Either way, my guess is he’ll be on the roster come Week 1.
Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Doug Martin, RB
2017 cap hit: $5,764,706
Potential savings: $5,764,706
It’s disappointing to see where Doug Martin’s promising career has headed. Once seen as one of the NFL’s top up-and-coming runners, he’s now become an unwanted commodity in Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers’ stance is understandable, especially after the 2016 campaign. Martin turned in a career-worst season, which ended with a four-game suspension for Adderall use. That should help Tampa Bay, though, seeing as said suspension voided the rest of Martin’s guarantees.
At this point, what does the team have to lose? It’s not like Martin is playing the way he did during his rookie season when he earned the Muscle Hamster nickname. He managed only 2.9 yards per carry in 2016 and missed six games with a hamstring injury. The production (and effort) just doesn’t seem to be there anymore.
Just as the Pewter Report expects, Martin probably already played his last game as a Buccaneer. Not exactly the way that I saw his career playing out, but it’ll be a well-earned release if that’s what the future holds.
Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
Tennessee Titans: Harry Douglas, WR
2017 cap hit: $4,483,334
Potential savings: $3.75 million
When the Titans signed Harry Douglas in 2015, it seemed like an underrated addition. Instead, it’s turned out to be little more than wasted money.
Despite Tennessee’s struggles out wide this past season, Douglas was an afterthought in the passing game. He finished the year with 15 catches for 210 yards, a huge step backwards from what was already considered a disappointing showing the year before. Instead of stepping up, he allowed unheralded talents like Tajae Sharpe to steal the spotlight.
With the Titans expected to target a wide receiver with one of their two first-round picks in 2017, I don’t see a place for Douglas on this team. He’s making way too much money for such little production. Even with two receivers scheduled to be free agents, there’s not much Douglas has to offer this offense.
Tennessee doesn’t need the cap space at this point. Even then, why waste the money on a player who brings almost nothing to the table? I’d guess Douglas will be shown the door before too long. It’s pretty much a matter of “when” instead of “if” at this point.
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Washington Redskins: DeAngelo Hall, FS
2017 cap hit: $5,062,500
Potential savings: $4.25 million
Like many of the folks on this list, DeAngelo Hall has recently been hindered by serious injuries. In 2016, the 33-year-old safety tore his ACL three weeks in, bringing his year to an early end for the second time in three seasons.
Now heading into a contract year, Hall could be forced into a difficult situation. Owed over $5 million, there’s just no way the Redskins are going to dish out that type of money for a fading safety, let alone for a guy who simply can’t stay healthy at this point in his career.
Even when he is on the field, Hall hasn’t exactly been a star for Washington. Sure, he still provides decent coverage for the D.C. secondary, but his speed is waning and his body can’t hold up to the punishment that comes with playing the run. Still, Hall has stated he wants to keep playing, so we’ll see what happens in the coming months.
Either way, I’d guess the Redskins will at least ask him to take a pay cut. However, based on how free agency and the draft pan out, Hall could become expendable in the near future. It’s an enticing option, especially since it would save Washington $4.25 million.
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