National Basketball Association

Why the Phoenix Suns Will Go 32-50 in 2016-17

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Sep 28, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Brandon Knight (3), center Tyson Chandler (4) and guard Eric Bledsoe (2) poses for a portrait during media day at Talking Stick Resort Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

It’s been pretty miserable being a Phoenix Suns fan the past couple of years, hasn’t it?

A franchise NBA fans used to count on as a playoff mainstay for so long, now rests in June and July with the other lowly teams in the league, year-in and year-out.

Most excitement this offseason was centered around the draft. Outside of the selection of Dragan Bender and the trade for Marquesse Chriss, no mind-blowing free agents were recruited and the Suns have still yet to make any major moves.

Odds are neither Chriss nor Bender will be high impact players this season, and while it is fun that Jared Dudley and Leandro Barbosa are back, neither of them are capable of flipping this franchise around either.

However, the Suns did improve this offseason, and they will have a better record this year than last – a positive step in the right direction.

To try to nail down the most accurate prediction possible, I attempted to take every variable I could genuinely make a plausible estimation of and take them into account.

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That said, there were many positives moving in the Suns’ favor this season, many reasons to believe that the Suns would finish above last year’s lowly 23-59. From head coaching and roster consistency, to a lack of four games in five nights for the first time in franchise history, the Suns have set themselves up to take a step forward in 2016-17.

The question is by how much.

Below is the most unscientifically scientific way I could possibly figure, to as accurately as possible, predict the Suns’ final record this year. In the end this is just a guess. And a significant midseason trade or serious long-term injury could completely negate the majority of the estimations I have made.

Suns Head Coach Earl Watson. Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

– Coaching – Consistency at Head Coach is huge, especially with a young team. Having a full-offseason and training camp – plus no major distractions to suffer through – will all be very helpful. (I have fully bought into the Earl Watson administration. I hope the players have too.)
+5 games better. 28-54

– Development – Devin Booker and T.J. Warren will almost undoubtedly improve upon last season and should be counted on to develop into legitimate leaders on the team. Alex Len could surprise us all with a significant jump or disappoint with a skill stagnation, though I lean towards the latter. Archie Goodwin also may finally have the opportunity to log some good minutes as a backup point.
+5 games better. 33-49

– Power Forward – After Markieff Morris was traded, the Suns were left with no true power forwards. Jared Dudley doesn’t scare anybody, but is an improvement over nobody, and Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss add depth, though will certainly be hit and miss all season.
+1 game better. 34-48

– Pure Luck – Every team faces this every year. The Suns have had enough games end on crazy plays, wild shots, and buzzer beaters over the past couple of years to fill a lifetime of bad sports memories. This is the only category that I cannot quantify with any sort of legitimate estimate, yet, I still believe that their luck will begin to turn this season. In 2016-17, the Suns will have slightly more good luck than bad.
+1 game better. 35-47

– Schedule – The Suns will have zero four games in five nights sets, and when dissecting the schedule, they have plenty of scheduled time for rest. Time off may be a slight hindrance in keeping positive momentum between games, but would also slow negative momentum. The vets on the team (and those with nagging injuries) will have a little more time to heal, whereas the young guns should have fresher legs throughout the end of the season.
+3 games better. 38-44

– Youthfulness – This is still very much a young team. Turnovers and ill-advised shots will hurt them in clutch situations, specifically in the first third of the season. You have to imagine that enough maturity has arrived and developed on the roster to negate some of that, especially by taking the ball out of the hands of players prone to make such mistakes though.
-2 games worse. 36-46

– Injuries – You can pretty much expect from this roster that the Suns will have about 20% of their games negatively affected by injuries, and about 10% positively affected by opponents injuries, for a net loss of about 10%.
-4 games worse. 32-50

The way this roster is currently constructed, fans can finally see a plan of long-term improvement and success moving forward and can also now see reason for optimism.

A nine game improvement with two 19-year-olds and a 20-year-old on the roster is not bad at all.

If healthy, Eric Bledsoe is the 5th best point guard in the league and actually may be the catalyst for an even bigger turn around if he stays healthy for all 82 games (although, I would cap that at maybe 3 more wins, max).

The problem is that outside of Bled and Book the Suns do not have any scary threats that can help anchor the team. That will come eventually, and very possibly via trade or free agency next offseason.

As an aside, if the Suns had finished 32-50 last season, they would have had the 7th worst record in the league, so, with this record we can expect a draft selection out of the top five, but still in the top ten.

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