Should The Nuggets Target The Eighth Seed Or Tank: Pros And Cons
Jan 3, 2017; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Nikola Jokic (15) shoots the ball over Sacramento Kings center Kosta Koufos (41) during the first half at Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports
The Nuggets are stuck in a predicament, and they need to decide as to which path they should take. Should they be targeting the playoffs, or tanking for a higher draft pick.
The Nuggets were tied for the 8th seed just about two weeks ago, before they lost 5 straight games and fell a few spots in the standings. That made me question whether or not the playoffs would be the best path for this team to take.
Since then, they have gone on a small win streak of 3 games and are the sole owners of the eighth seed.
For years, the Nuggets have missed that “big piece” or star type of player, and it is becoming more clear every game that they have found that piece in Nikola Jokic.
Now, the Nuggets just need to find a way to build around Jokic to better their chances at a championship. That being said, it is important that Jokic and the rest of the young Nuggets get playoff experience while they are still young, so that they can be better prepared for the playoffs in the future.
The only problem is that the Nuggets still aren’t completely done with their rebuild as of now, and are still missing a piece or two to propel them further and possibly compete for a title.
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That brings up the question as to what the pros and cons would be if the Nuggets targeted the playoffs, or waited one more season, tanking and getting a high pick in a good draft.
Dec 30, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Kenneth Faried (35) and forward Danilo Gallinari (8) during a stoppage of play in the fourth quarter against the Philadelphia 76ers at the Pepsi Center. The 76ers won 124-122. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Targeting the Playoffs
This season, the Western Conference is unlike past seasons.
As it stands currently, the Denver Nuggets are in the playoffs as the eighth seed. They currently hold a record of 17-24, 6.0 games behind 7th place Oklahoma City.
The Nuggets’ .425 winning percentage is the worst winning percentage for an eighth place team in the past 15 years, and the lowest percentage to make the 8th seed during that span was the 41-41 Rockets last season.
With the playoffs very well in reach for the Nuggets, it is a very viable option for them and could help the team and franchise tremendously, but at the same time, could possibly lead to the Nuggets staying mediocre for seasons to come.
Targeting the Playoffs: Pros
Playoff Experience
Playoff experience is something that cannot be taught or can’t happen during the regular season. Only a few players on the Nuggets roster have experienced playoff basketball, but many of them have not. Experience in the playoffs is something that would come as a benefit to Jokic, Mudiay, Murray, and others. Over half of the team has never played in the NBA Playoffs and even if the Nuggets were swept in the playoffs, the experience for the young guys would make it worth it.
Confidence Boost
This team hasn’t been in playoff contention the past 3 seasons and the confidence not only for the players, but for Coach Malone and the front office would sky rocket. Ever since Andre Iguodala left Denver for the Warriors, the Nuggets have been stuck right in the middle of the lottery. It is evident that the players who were on the last playoff team don’t have the drive and confidence that they had that season. Winning games leads to confidence and winning playoff games boosts it tremendously.
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Free Agency
The Nuggets obviously aren’t a title contender at the moment, but making the playoffs would be a step in the right direction for the franchise. Since Carmelo Anthony left Denver, there really hasn’t been a certain player who could attract free agents to come to the Nuggets. Right now, making the playoffs would help players consider the Nuggets and they now have a franchise centerpiece in Nikola Jokic, who could also attract players to come here. The current players have continuously expressed how much they like playing alongside Jokic and the stats back their words up. If the Nuggets could haul in a big free agent, they would take a huge leap as a whole.
The Fan Base
Let’s be honest, the Nuggets have a very dead fan base at the moment. Their own home court varies from sparsely open seats to half of the arena open, based solely on the opponent. The Nuggets need their fan base to show up to games and the best way to do that is to prove that they are capable of making the playoffs. Each year, the Nuggets’ attendance has decreased and both this season and last season, the Nuggets have been dead last in attendance. Making the playoffs would help bring fans back to Pepsi Center again.
Targeting the Playoffs: Cons
Much Lower Draft Pick
Yeah, there could be an argument that the Nuggets are young enough and don’t need to get younger, but if you look at the veterans on the Nuggets’ roster, many are 30+ or approaching that age.
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By the time the core of the Nuggets, including Jokic, Mudiay, Murray, and Harris, reaches their prime, the veterans on the team now will either be in their mid-30s or out of the league completely.
Adding one more young player now, to solidify the core is actually important, and making the playoffs could essentially be a 5 spot difference in the lottery as to if the Nuggets finished 9th in the conference.
Getting Swept
It’s bound to happen. The Nuggets are starting three players 22 and under and a likely match-up against the Warriors would likely end up in a sweep.
That being said, it’s not a guarantee that the Nuggets get swept. This could also counter my argument that making the playoffs could boost the confidence of the players.
Getting swept is never fun and could ruin a team’s confidence.
Tanking
Does tanking even work?
Some teams tank to get a high draft pick and succeed, while others tank and end up drafting a bust.
Tanking is and has been a very controversial topic for NBA fans. It is usually a 50/50 split as to whether people like tanking or not. It definitely isn’t something looked at as a good idea, as it can come with its risks.
As for the Nuggets, Coach Malone has repeatedly said and demonstrating that he is strictly against tanking and doesn’t like it at all.
Tanking in this year’s draft isn’t the greatest of ideas as well, as the draft is one of the deeper drafts in recent history, but tanking can still have its benefits as well.
Bear in mind that this year’s draft will be full of franchise altering talent, so it is worth the consideration.
As stated earlier, one more piece to solidify this young core would benefit this franchise greatly in multiple areas.
Tanking: Pros
One Piece Away
As of now, the Nuggets have essentially found the player they want to build around, in Nikola Jokic, and now they just need to find talent to surround him with. Tanking this season would be a positive and a negative because there are a lot of good players to choose from and any top 10 pick would essentially bring in a great player to any team. With the Nuggets solid at the Guard position and Center position, tanking for a forward would make sense.
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Developing the Youth
Tanking would obviously mean the Nuggets would turn more towards their young players to step up for the rest of the season. Players who haven’t had too many opportunities would get a bigger role and could acquire experience before the season is over. This includes Jamal Murray, Juancho Hernangomez, and Malik Beasley, all of whom are rookies and vital parts of the future of the Nuggets.
Tanking is Worth It
As some teams would point out, tanking is very much worth it. The Cleveland Cavaliers essentially tanked and ended up drafting Kyrie Irving before LeBron James rejoined them, who was also drafted by the Cavs, in which they tanked then as well to draft him. The Philadelphia 76ers are another team that are proving tanking works as their “rookie” who they drafted in 2014 (Joel Embiid) is guiding them in the right direction. Not only that, but they have surrounded him with very solid players to help the team win.
Tanking: Cons
It doesn’t always work
The NBA is full of players who thrive and players who “bust.” Some recent busts include Darko Milicic, Anthony Bennett, and Greg Oden.
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Although the teams didn’t necessarily tank to acquire these players, the risk of the player becoming a bust is always present, essentially making the tank unsuccessful.
Confidence Diminisher
NBA players don’t want to tank. The coach could sit the players and tank, but that could end up with the players losing trust and being unhappy, which just leads to trades. The team as a whole can just be diminished and the players could be unwilling to play hard. Essentially, tanking also presents a risk of core players wanting out of the team.
Wasting Time
Tanking can lead to be a waste of a season or waste of time. If the team only tanks for half the season, then essentially everything up to then is a waste of time. It is a year of a player’s career wasted. NBA players want to play and compete and tanking is the exact opposite.
Both the Playoffs and Tanking have their ups and downs, but what should the Nuggets do?
Personally, I believe the Nuggets have no reason to tank at the moment. They are currently in the eighth seed and primed to make the playoffs. They might not win a single game in the playoffs, but I believe that the Nuggets should take the next step for both the team but the entire franchise and try to make the playoffs.
The fan base is fed up with tanking and drafting high picks and just wants to be back in playoff contention and this year could be the year the Nuggets return to the playoffs. The franchise should take this opportunity and use it for the benefit of the team and its future.
The future is very bright for the Denver Nuggets,so why continue to wait?
It makes sense to start getting playoff experience for this young squad now, so they can be better equipped for the post season in the near future.
