The Trail Blazers complete their four-game home stand, playing host to the Miami Heat. Against a rebuilding Heat roster, decimated by injuries (six players unavailable), Portland have the perfect opportunity to get themselves above .500 ahead of a five game road trip.
On paper, the Heat are the polar opposite of the Trail Blazers. The Florida franchise is a top 10 defense and bottom 10 in both offensive rating and pace. Despite a 7-12 record and a season prognosis that will likely involve a lottery draft rather than a playoff seed, the Heat should not be overlooked.
In their last five games, the Heat have picked up three wins, including two road victories against decent Western conference teams. Strangely, franchise player, Hassan Whiteside performed below par in both of these fixtures putting up just 4 points and 12 rebounds against the Grizzlies, and 9 points and 10 rebounds against the Jazz. Both efforts were notably below his season averages of 17.3 points and 14.8 rebounds. It’s worth noting that both Memphis and Utah have a decent, physical inside presence. Given the Trail Blazers frontcourt woes, don’t be surprised if Whiteside puts up big numbers.
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Ed Davis is capable of being the man to make Whiteside’s life harder inside. The lineup of Davis, Maurice Harkless, Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum and Mason Plumlee have so far logged 100 minutes together this season. When on the floor, their offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions) is 131.1 and defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) is 118.9. But perhaps the most vital stat that this line up brings, is that they haul in 61% of available rebounds when on the floor. This is significantly higher than the 48.2% the team averages overall.
Outside of Whiteside, the Heat’s biggest threat is 30-year-old, Slovenian point guard Goran Dragic. Currently averaging 17 points and 6.6 assists, Dragic is capable of causing some significant damage on the offensive end. But realistically, is he capable of defending a player of Lillard’s prowess? Expect Heat coach Erik Spoelstra to through a combination of his three available 6-4 shooting guards at Lillard (particularly Tyler Johnson), whilst moving Dragic over to McCollum.
At full health, this Heat squad would be a handful, but still a beatable team. Right now, a loss would be an upset. These are the type of games that the Trail Blazers have to win convincingly if they really are a playoff contender.
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