National Basketball Association

Philadelphia 76ers Success Won't Ruin 2017 NBA Draft Outlook.

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 11:49 p.m. ET

Fansided, Bret Stuter/FanSided via The Sixer Sense

The Philadelphia 76ers have enjoyed some modest success in 2017. Despite that good fortune, don’t expect the sun to set on the team in the 2017 NBA Draft

The Philadelphia 76ers are on a mini-run right now. Since December 8th, the team has enjoyed .500 basketball. That’s seven wins to balance out seven losses. In fact, if you toss the first ten games of this season (when the team played 1-9 basketball), this team is nearly respectable with a 10-16 record, about par with the New Orleans Pelicans so far.

That’s discomforting because, to be honest, nobody in New Orleans is talking about the Pelicans landing the number one draft pick in the 2017 NBA Draft. Nor should they be. They likelihood of the 22nd ranked Pelicans landing the top pick of that 2017 NBA Draft is 1.7%. That’s hardly enough to excite this fan base heading into the very robust and deep NBA draft.

But for all the bashing insults hurled by the NBA insiders at the Philadelphia 76ers, ne’er a peep has been spoken about the incredible draft position the Philadelphia 76ers enjoy in the draft going forward. Keep in mind that a team is awarded one first round and one second round pick in the NBA draft each year. The position of those picks are determined by the ranking of the team at the end of the season, and further addressed via the NBA lottery.

Jun 23, 2016; New York, NY, USA; A general view of a video board displaying all thirty draft picks in the first round of the 2016 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

Pour Me A Draft!

Right now, the Philadelphia 76ers hold the follow draft picks/rights heading into the 2017 NBA Draft:

2017 NBA Draft Summary:

Philadelphia 76ers first round pick. (37.8% chance of a top three, 83.8% chance of top five)
AND Rights to swap 76ers first round pick with that of the Sacramento Kings (adds 2.9 % chance of top three pick)
AND Los Angeles Lakers first round pick (15% chance remains 1-3 Protected) (59.9% seventh, 23.2% eighth,1.8% ninth)

Philadelphia gets best and worst 2nd round picks from (Utah Jazz, Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks (42nd Pick), and Golden State Warriors (60th pick))
BUT Philadelphia 76ers second round pick to New Orleans.

This is just the 2017 NBA Draft. From a standard two picks, the 76ers will likely enjoy four picks. Four picks from a very good draft class is great fortune for a rebuilding team.

What if We Keep Winning?

The Philadelphia 76ers are beginning to believe in themselves. Robert Covington took a beautiful inbounds pass from Dario Saric to score the game winner against the Minnesota Timberwolves. T.J. McConnell hit a turn around jumper at the buzzer to win a hotly contested game against the New York Knicks.

This team has yet to see top rated rookie Ben Simmons step onto the basketball court. While his debut will force the team to readjust to a new cast member, it won’t be long before his style will elevate the play of everyone.

So far, if you chop this team’s season into ten game intervals, you find the following:

If the team plays at or near .500 ball for the remainder of this season, the Philadelphia 76ers will end the year at a much better than expected record of 34-48. Should that happen, the likelihood of a top three, or even a top five, pick in the 2017 NBA Draft falls to negligible. So if the team lands at the 22nd spot in the standings, the 76ers will have a 6.1 percent chance of a top three pick, but will likely land the eighth pick (81.3% chance).

May 17, 2016; New York, NY, USA; General view during the NBA draft lottery at New York Hilton Midtown. The Philadelphia 76ers received the first overall pick in the 2016 draft. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Not All Bad News

The 2017 NBA Draft is not all about the Philadelphia 76ers. And even when talking about the results of the draft for the Philadelphia 76ers, it is still not all about the 76ers. Much of the outcome of the 2017 NBA Draft depends upon the results of the Sacramento Kings and the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Los Angeles Lakers began the season in a flurry of winning, and maintained .500 ball through 20 games. But then the team hit a 2-15 skid, and plummeted out of playoff talks. Now, at 15-27, they are merely one game ahead of the Philadelphia 76ers in the NBA rankings.

And the Philadelphia 76ers are playing some hot basketball (5-5), while the Lakers are not as hot (4-6). Could there be a point in the season where the Lakers have a more favorable NBA draft position than the 76ers? It would not come as a surprise.

It was the Los Angeles Lakers who have picked second in the NBA draft two consecutive years. In 2015, the team selected guard D’Angelo Russell, and in 2016 the team selected Brandon Ingram. On both occasions, their 1st round pick remained with the Lakers due to protection.

But 2017 does not “feel” as though protection will kick in. Unless the Lakers crumble in the second half of the season, they will likely remain in line for a top 10 pick, which will be selected by the Philadelphia 76ers.

Swap Meet

In addition to the Lakers pick, the swap rights with the Sacramento Kings become incredibly valuable as the 76ers find success. The Kings act like a safety net, or insurance policy, in case the 76ers show marked improvement this season. This situation is beginning to resemble the situation facing the Brooklyn Nets draft swap with the Boston Celtics. If the 76ers ascend to a better record than the Kings, they will simply activate that swap and pick at the more favorable Kings draft position.

While there are reasons to hope for the Lakers not to get too good (limits value of pick) or too bad (might not convey due to protection), there are no brakes on hoping the worst for the Sacramento Kings. Every loss that piles up for Sacramento drives that pick further to the top of the 2017 NBA Draft.

But losses don’t come in buckets for the Kings. They play a solid defense, and are led by center DeMarcus Cousins. While there is a potential long term contract in the works for Cousins in the near future, the team’s fortunes rest almost entirely on his shoulders. That is a potential for a decline in the second half of the year.

Ultimately, the Philadelphia 76ers need to win ball games. But if they do, don’t fret the upcoming NBA Draft. We’re insured.