National Basketball Association

Paul Millsap: Will He Stay Or Will He Go?

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Free agency is always an intriguing time and the story-lines in it can build up for over a year in advance. For Paul Millsap, there is such intrigue. The Hawks’ power forward has a player option at the end of the 2016-17 season and speculation has already begun about it. Millsap had stated that he may well take the player option and sign on for one more year but that still seems unlikely. By opting out, Millsap has a good chance for one last big-money, multi-year contract. Staying in Atlanta, endangers that.

Regardless, the Millsap situation has already become something of a distraction. The will-he, won’t-he debate has already begun, so let’s have a look. Assuming Paul Millsap does the sensible thing and opts out, let’s examine his looming free agency. Will he stay or will he go?

Apr 26, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Paul Millsap (4) and guard Dennis Schroder (17) react against the Boston Celtics in the third quarter in game five of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at Philips Arena. The Hawks defeated the Celtics 110-83. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Paul Millsap, the power forward out of Louisiana, has long been seen as one of the NBA’s most underrated players but that is becoming less and less true. His flawless versatility and considerable consistency have finally become recognized. Last year, he hit 17.1 points, nine rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.8 rebounds, and 1.7 steals. Those are strong numbers in all five categories for a power forward and it got him recognition as an All-Star and a place on the NBA All-Defensive Second Team. He led the Hawks in points, rebounds, steals, and blocks and he has been a key player on the team for many years.

His three-year contract extension, signed in 2015, has a player option for this summer and it seems probable that he will opt out. If he does, Millsap will have a whole host of suitors. The big man can offer team’s strong contributions in all areas, as well as shooting range. This, has become a vital attribute for that position in today’s NBA. For Millsap, there will be teams of every variety pining for him. He will get offers from championship contenders, looking for the final piece, weaker teams with more cap room to play with and middle-of-the-road teams looking to take a step up. Where the Hawks will be in those categories is unclear, but Millsap will still have a big decision to make.

Apr 28, 2016; Boston, MA, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Paul Millsap (4) shoots the ball against Boston Celtics forward Jonas Jerebko (8) during the first half in game six of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

Stay?

Although it is too early to say, there will be many things luring back to Atlanta. There he has a chance to build an incredibly strong front-court pairing with Dwight Howard and he has familiarity with teammates, coaches, and fans. With his team-first mentality and personal sacrifices, Millsap fits perfectly for Atlanta. He also knows he has the confidence of Mike Budenholzer and the entire franchise.

The Hawks are likely to offer Millsap as much as they can or as much as he wants. They would be considered foolish to let the power forward walk. Since they made such a commitment to Dwight Howard, it makes sense that they would keep his front-court partner in town with a similar investment.

Atlanta also offers him a chance to compete in the East. The Hawks might not be realistic contenders for the NBA Championship but the team is looking to compete in the league’s weaker conference. The Cavaliers might be the strongest team, but the places immediately after will be hotly contested between the Raptors, Knicks, Hornets, Hawks and so on.

Go?

There are factors that could deter Millsap from re-signing, though and many which could pull him away. He will already know that the Hawks attempted to trade him in a last-minute dash to keep Al Horford in town. That will have dented Millsap’s confidence in his position in the ATL. He will know that, even though it is a business, he is not so highly valued as to be untouchable and that the Hawks preferred Horford to him. With a dented pride and some scorned loyalty, Millsap might be inspired to take his talents elsewhere.

There is also the uncertainty of Atlanta’s season to consider. So much could go wrong for the Hawks this year and, if it does, Millsap likely won’t wait around. A successful season could inspire him to stay but the opposite could do the opposite. The outcome of the season could make an impact on Atlanta’s approach to Millsap’s free agency. If it is a disaster, which he likely and hopefully won’t be, there is a chance the Hawks are willing to let Millsap walk.

Elsewhere, there are the obvious draws for Millsap help sway him to leave. Bigger markets, better teams, higher salaries, a hometown location. All of these could pull Millsap out of Atlanta and to another NBA roster. That all depends on him. If he wants to chase a ring, he can join a contender. If he wants to cash in on his last real opportunity for financial security and stability, he can follow the dollar signs.

Sep 26, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Paul Millsap (4) talks with members of the media during Atlanta Hawks media day at The W Hotel. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Where does Millsap’s future lie?

You never do know with free agency. I was sure that Horford would stay but that did not happen. Additionally, you can never say for certain what will happen when Millsap hits the open market. There are so many factors that will pull and push Millsap from and to Atlanta. So much can change over the course of the season. Perhaps it is too early to say but its seems that Atlanta’s success this year should impact his decision.

If the Hawks do well and Millsap forms a strong partnership and relationship with Dwight Howard, it seems likely that everything points towards him staying. He would have a strong team and friendships. Let’s not forget the financial security/ the total commitment and passion of the front office, too.

If the Hawks struggle and the Millsap-Howard partnership does not properly gel, Millsap might be keener to look elsewhere and then, with his head turned, the other opportunities would likely lure him away from Georgia.

You never know in free agency, but Millsap’s fate likely rests with Atlanta’s 2016-17 season and his developing relationship with Howard.