Pacific Division: 5 Burning Questions for the 2016-17 Season
November 4, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) dribbles the basketball against Los Angeles Clippers guard Chris Paul (3) during the first quarter at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Clippers 112-108. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
The NBA season approaches, and the Pacific Division boasts this season’s title favorite, balanced by the dregs of the Western Conference. What are the burning questions for each team?
With the NBA season only days away, questions about the league’s 30 teams are burning in the minds of everyone who follows basketball. While the media is dominated by the league’s newest super team, every team has questions that need to be answered.
The Pacific Division boasted the greatest regular season team in league history as the Golden State Warriors soared to 73 wins before an injury-induced collapse in the Finals. They also fielded the Western Conference’s two worst teams, as the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers rode young teams to the top of the lottery.
This season dawns with optimism across the division, as all five teams can expect to improve. The Los Angeles Clippers played much of last season without Blake Griffin after he broke his hand punching a team official. After improving their bench, is there any chance they can challenge the Warriors?
The Kings also have reason for optimism, with a new coach and plenty of new rotation players. Can they break out of the bottom-10 and challenge for a playoff berth? Fans in Sacramento certainly think so, but everyone else will need to be convinced before they’re so easily roped in.
The Suns and Lakers also brought in new coaches, and with exciting young players hope to build a better foundation for the future. Each experienced dysfunction last season – the Lakers splintered over a Snapchat scandal, the Suns divided in rebellion against former coach Jeff Hornacek – but a new start could help each.
But the Pacific Division is first and foremost about the Golden State Warriors, who added Kevin Durant to an already stocked team. With more continuity than other recent “super teams” in Miami, Brooklyn, and Los Angeles they could start hot out of the gate. Can they set the wins record again – and should they?
Our burning questions start in Oakland. Who on the team will take on a reduced role now that Kevin Durant is in town?
September 26, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors forward Kevin Durant (35) and guard Stephen Curry (30) laugh during media day at the Warriors Practice Facility. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Golden State Warriors: Who Will Take a Backseat?
The Golden State Warriors put into place a major upgrade this offseason in swapping out Harrison Barnes for Kevin Durant. Durant is a top-3 player in the league and excellent at both ends of the court. Unsurprisingly, the Warriors are going to have an even higher ceiling this season.
Nothing in the NBA is free, however, and the addition of Durant introduces a problem to the Golden State offense even as it brings so many solutions. Last season Harrison Barnes had a 15.9 percent usage rate, which tracks how many possessions he personally finished with a shot, free throws, or a turnover. Kevin Durant finished with a 30.6 percent usage rate, which would bring Golden State’s expected starting lineup to a combined 122 percent usage rate. Someone is going to have to give up somewhere.
The simplest explanation is that everyone is going to give up a little slice of the pie. If each of the starters give up two shots, then things would theoretically balance out. Another approach is to increase the pace and add another couple of possessions to the game. Staggering the minutes of the high-usage starters could spread out their possessions among bench-heavy units.
All of these things will probably happen in some small way, but ultimately someone is going to sacrifice more than the others. Many hypothesized it would be Klay Thompson, but that hasn’t been the case thus far in the preseason. The quickest shot in the West is getting wide open looks as teams go crazy trying to stop two MVPs and launching nearly every time he gets the ball, to great effect.
In the preseason thus far Steph Curry has taken less shots, deferring to Durant and letting his new teammate shine. While Curry will likely not hit the same totals he cleared during last season’s record-breaking campaign, once the regular season starts he will step back into his role as this team’s top option. Durant is a phenomenal offensive player, but Steph Curry is better.
That leaves Draymond Green to receive the short straw, although it will hardly be a demotion. Green will give up shots to Durant, and will at times cede his role as Curry’s pick-and-roll partner as Steve Kerr unleashes the most unstoppable combo in league history with Durant screening for Curry. While his efficiency should go up, Green’s involvement in the offense will go down.
Durant will also take on Green’s fast-break impact, as the lanky forward is comfortable snaring a rebound and racing out in transition. With Green running the opposite side of the court and the two best shooters in the game racing to the arc, this will be Golden State’s deadliest weapon.
Green will still be an unstoppable force on defense, and it’s possible his assist and rebound numbers stay around the same levels. But his career high 14 points per game last year will probably sink back down as the Warriors find a balance with their new superstar team.
October 13, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Clippers guard Raymond Felton (2) and center DeAndre Jordan (6) react against the Portland Trail Blazers during the first half at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Los Angeles Clippers: Can They Make it Past the Second Round?
For the past few seasons, no team in the NBA has boasted a nucleus as potent as the Los Angeles Clippers. Chris Paul is perennially one of the two or three best point guards in the league, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan are athletic marvels who play above the rim like none other, and J.J. Redick has honed being a role player to perfection.
Despite their talented core, the Clippers have run into the same glass ceiling year after year. This team cannot advance beyond the second round of the playoffs, falling to the Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, and Oklahoma City Thunder. Chris Paul has a full Hall of Fame resume but has never sniffed the Conference Finals.
For Los Angeles to turn things around and take the step that has eluded them for so long, two things need to happen. They need Blake Griffin to be a top-10 player in the league, and they need to secure the Western Conference’s second seed.
Griffin missed 47 games last season, most due to the broken hand he acquired punching a team official. When he is healthy and playing at peak efficiency, few players in NBA history can glide up to the rim or power through defenders on the block in the same way Griffin can. He is a unique player, and Doc Rivers has shown no qualms in deploying unique players.
Griffin was an MVP-caliber player two seasons ago, and the Clippers lost in the Second Round to the Houston Rockets. More so than their franchise forward returning to form, Los Angeles needs to win a solid amount of games, more than in years past. If the Clippers want to reach the Conference Finals, they should focus on this goal.
Home court advantage is not unattainable in a Western Conference that saw future Hall of Famers depart their team, to retire (Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryanr) or to join a superteam (Kevin Durant). With the Spurs and Thunder specifically taking a set back, the Clippers have a great window to make a run at the title.
If Los Angeles can host a Game 7 in the second round, they would have a shot to advance. Teams such as Portland, Utah, and Dallas are all old foes that Los Angeles is familiar with, and facing them in Los Angeles could give the Clippers an edge to advance.
If the San Antonio Spurs end up facing the Clippers in the semifinals, Chris Paul and company have their first round victory of two seasons ago to know they can overcome the Spurs if they can host the series.
If Blake Griffin and the rest of the Clippers nucleus maintains their level of play, and the bench is at least average, winning 55-60 games is within reach. And if L.A. can snare the second seed then a trip to the Conference Finals could be in the cards for Doc Rivers’ team.
Oct 10, 2016; Sacramento, CA, USA; Sacramento Kings center DeMarcus Cousins (15) looks to pass the ball in the first quarter against the Maccabi Haifa B.C. at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
Is Dave Joerger the Coach to Finally Reach Boogie Cousins?
DeMarcus Cousins is entering his seventh season in the league, and is playing under his sixth coach. The trail of head coaches chewed up and spit out by the disfunction of the Sacramento organization share one thing in common: they did not get full buy-in from Cousins.
Mike Malone came the closest, but didn’t last long enough in Sacramento to make a difference. George Karl most recently coached the team, and seemed wholly out of touch with his superstar. Cousins is brimming with talent on both ends of the court, but no coach has yet been able to fully unlock it.
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Cousins plays how he wishes to play, and shows glimpses of that seemingly limitless potential lurking beneath the surface. But none of his coaches have convinced Cousins to buy in, to lay all of his effort and energy on the court for his teammates. If Joerger cannot either, then his tenure with the Kings may be short.
There is reason to be optimistic as well. Joerger dealt with a locker room of questionable conduct and personal grudges, and he masterfully handled the group through the storm to cling to the playoffs.
Sacramento has high hopes for the season, hopes that the team as currently constructed has little chance of reaching. A new handful of subpar rotation players not pulling their oar on the ship will not help the team. DeMarcus Cousins is the key for the Kings, and Dave Joerger the man on the hot seat to unlock Cousins’ potential.
Which of the Los Angeles Lakers’ Young Players Are Long-term Building Blocks?
After the worst three-year stretch in team history, the Lakers are now flush with young players. While those at the top may think the Lakers are heading towards the postseason, this year is more about the distant future than playing basketball late in April.
Jordan Randle, D’Angelo Russell, and Brandon Ingram have the pedigree of high lottery picks. Larry Nance Jr, Anthony Brown, Jordan Clarkson, and Ivica Zubac are all lower picks who have shown flashes of being rotation players. The odds are against all of them panning out, and the Lakers need to identify where to commit their resources.
Randle was drafted in the 2014 Draft, but a broken leg limited him to 14 minutes his rookie year. Last season he debuted again alongside Russell, and showed the league a player with creativity on offense, passing skills, and little defensive impact.
Without Kobe Bean Bryant sucking up possessions and tightening the court, Randle will need to prove he can be an efficient scorer and playmaker skills. Ideally he plays a role in Luke Walton’s offense similar to Draymond Green – but he will need to grow in many areas to do so.
D’Angelo Russell made the news last season for two non-basketball reasons: the ineptitude of his coach Byron Scott and his immaturity in secretly taping teammate Nick Young’s confession of infidelity. Unfortunately that covered up his on-court success, as over the back half of the season Russell showed the ability to score in bunches and find open shooters.
Brandon Ingram is the latest blue chip to join the fold, drafted second overall in this past summer’s draft. His body and offensive game draw to mind our first glimpses of Kevin Durant, but that’s a high water mark for a 19-year old. His future role on this team is their top scorer, but he will need time to grow into that role.
While ownership may be pushing this team towards winning games, seen in public statements and massive contracts given to middling veterans, Luke Walton needs to focus his time and rotations on identifying what he has on his hands. If things all play out well, he has a core that can win a lot of basketball games. In 2019, not 2017.
Sep 26, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; (From left) Phoenix Suns guard Eric Bledsoe , guard Devin Booker and guard Brandon Knight pose for a portrait during media day at Talking Stick Resort Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Which Point Guard Will the Phoenix Suns Trade?
Phoenix was a rising star in the West, a team suddenly gelling around a double point guard lineup and bigs who could space the floor. They missed the 2014 playoffs, but the next season was supposed to be their return to the playoffs.
Instead the Suns crashed hard, unable to sustain the offensive magic of that 48-win season. Trying to recreate the spark, they have continued to load up on offensively gifted guards. The dam broke once, and the team shipped out Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas. The backcourt is filled to bursting point again, and the team will need to make a move to alleviate it.
Devin Booker is the untouchable player on the roster. He was a standout as a rookie, scoring 13.8 points per game en route to a 1st-team All-Rookie berth. Booker is fearless as a shooter and driver, and scored from all spots on the court. Defensively he has work to do, but he is clearly a franchise cornerstone for Phoenix.
That leaves five more guards who all deserve – or at least feel they deserve – playing time. Eric Bledsoe is the most accomplished of the group, but is coming off his third knee injury. Brandon Knight can score 20 points per night with ease, but is a turnstile on defense.
Archie Goodwin filled in last year in the place of injured starters, and showed off the speed and athleticism that excited Kentucky fans years ago. Tyler Ulis is diminutive but an elite playmaker who made waves in Summer League; is he a long-term answer for Phoenix? And Leandro Barbosa was signed to add a veteran presence to the locker room, but he didn’t come to stand outside the rotation.
Knight and Bledsoe both need time to improve their value, which means early on Ulis and Goodwin will see the short straw. If both stay healthy, the Suns will most likely look to move Brandon Knight. Bledsoe’s size and defensive ability make him a better fit alongside the defensively-challenged Booker.
The team also could decide to deploy Knight as a combo guard off the bench, and deal Goodwin or Ulis as young players with upside. The choice the team should not make is trying to play three guards at once; Phoenix fans have already witnessed that ill-fated maneuver.
In the end Phoenix is not playing for a postseason berth, and instead needs to develop and organize their rotation. How things shake out by the end of the season will do a lot to inform their chances of real success in the years to come.
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