National Basketball Association

New York Knicks: Realistic Expectations For Carmelo Anthony

Updated Mar. 5, 2020 2:20 a.m. ET

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New York Knicks small forward Carmelo Anthony is approaching a career-defining campaign. What are realistic expectations for his 14th season?

Oct 4, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; New York Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony (7) brings the ball up the court during the third quarter against the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The 2016-17 NBA regular season is somewhere in between promising and disconcerting for New York Knicks fans. Carmelo Anthony has been surrounded with a significant measure of talent, but no one knows exactly what to expect.

Though there are a number of players with something to lose, there’s no player with more to gain than Anthony.

Anthony is entering his 14th NBA season. He boasts career averages of 24.9 points, 6.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.1 3-point field goals made on an efficient slash line of .454/.344/.812.

Anthony has 10 postseason appearances in 13 completed seasons, but the three times he’s missed the playoffs were 2013-14, 2014-15, and 2015-16.

With a desperate need to return to the 2016 NBA Playoffs, Anthony will need to be at his best. He acknowledged as much during a recent interview with Al Iannazzone of Newsday.

Per Iannazzone:

“Let’s just be quite frank, at the end of the day it’s going to take me being the best that I can be on the basketball court to make this successful alongside everybody doing their job and playing their role and being the best that they can be,” Anthony said. “I’ll figure the game out as the game comes and whatever that particular moment needs me to be.

The question is: what can the Knicks realistically expect Anthony to do in 2016-17?

Oct 4, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; New York Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony (7) dribbles the ball as Houston Rockets guard Eric Gordon (10) defends during the third quarter at Toyota Center. The Rockets won 130-103. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Scoring

If there’s one thing that you can expect to see from Carmelo Anthony, it’s an average of at least 20 points per game. He’s scored at least 20 points per game in all 13 of his NBA seasons, and doesn’t appear to be slowing down.

With a career-worst average of 20.8 points in a distant 2004-05 campaign, Anthony should be a productive scoring force in 2016-17.

Anthony averaged 21.8 points per game in 20115-16, which was his lowest mark since 2004-05. He shot an uncharacteristically low 43.4 percent from the field, however, and became a much more willing passer and all-around team player.

In 2016-17, you can expect Anthony to improve his scoring volume and efficiency under a head coach who will help him in invaluable ways.

Jeff Hornacek plans to utilize Anthony in both traditional ways and a manner that reflects the 32-year-old’s FIBA game. Anthony, who’s No. 29 on the NBA’s all-time scoring list and No. 1 on Team USA’s Olympic scoring list, thrives when given catch-and-shoot opportunities.

With a system that relies on motion and ball movement, and a cast of playmakers who can help create space for Anthony to operate, he should return to his productive ways.

Realistic Expectation: 24.0 PPG, .465/.350/.800

Aug 21, 2016; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; USA forward Carmelo Anthony (15) and Serbia power forward/center Milan Macvan (25) go for a rebound in the men’s basketball gold medal match during the Rio 2016 Summer Olympic Games at Carioca Arena 1. Mandatory Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Rebounding

Second to his uncanny ability to put points on the board, New York Knicks small forward Carmelo Anthony’s greatest ability is his presence on the boards. His career average of 6.6 rebounds per game isn’t awe-inspiring, but he’s stepped it up in recent seasons.

Joakim Noah and Kristaps Porzingis are both high-quality rebounders, but Anthony should still be able to get his on a consistent basis.

Anthony pulled down 8.1 rebounds per game in 2013-14, 6.6 in 2014-15, and 7.7 in 2015-16. He has a career average of 1.9 offensive boards per contest, albeit with a decline to 1.4 during the 2015-16 campaign.

Anthony will likely see a dip to the 7.0 to 7.5 range during the 2016-17 regular season, but that could prove untrue if he plays the 4 in small-ball rotations.

Porzingis played center in Noah’s absence during the preseason opener, and Kyle O’Quinn played power forward. Anthony is more than capable of playing the 4, however, and he may actually be the best option to do so when Porzingis is at the 5 or off the floor.

When he’s playing power forward, Anthony can crash the boards and flirt with a nightly double-double.

Realistic Expectation: 7.5 RPG, 1.5 ORPG

Mar 28, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; New York Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony (7) drives down court against the New Orleans Pelicans during the second quarter of a game at the Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Facilitating

Perhaps the most important development in Carmelo Anthony’s game has been his improvement as a facilitator. Not only has he improved his production, but he’s been a far more willing passer than in previous seasons.

Coming off of a career-best season from a facilitating perspective, it’s now on Anthony to continue distributing the ball at a productive and high level.

Anthony averaged a career-high 4.2 assists per game during the 2015-16 regular season. It was the first time in his 13-year career that he’d averaged at least 4.0 assists per game and just the third time he’d averaged at least 3.5.

In 2016-17, the ideal number for Anthony would be back around 4.0, but 3.5 would certainly be acceptable.

Anthony doesn’t need to turn into LeBron James, especially with Brandon Jennings, Joakim Noah, and Derrick Rose on the roster. He’ll still shoulder the heaviest workload on the roster, however, and will draw the most eyes from opposing defenses.

Anthony should improve his scoring volume and efficiency, but a part of getting help is offering it—and being willing to facilitate will make his job as a scorer that much easier.

Realistic Expectation: 3.5 APG

Oct 22, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; New York Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony (7) keeps an eye on the ball during the first half against the Boston Celtics at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Defense

Carmelo Anthony has always possessed the physical gifts to be one of the better defensive players in the NBA. True as that may be, he’s long been criticized for his lackluster energy on that end of the floor.

The question is: will Anthony’s recent rise in defensive intensity carry over from 2015-16 into 2016-17?

Anthony held opponents to 42.1 percent shooting in 2015-16. That’s impressive considering his assignments shot 45.1 percent from the field as a collective, meaning Anthony forced a significant drop-off in efficiency.

That includes a massive decline from 35.2 percent to 30.6 percent on 3-point field goals—arguably the most popular shot in the modern NBA.

With Joakim Noah on the floor, Anthony has a player who can stay in his ear and keep him motivated on defense. Top-level scorers often need a teammate like that, which makes Anthony consistent with the rule instead of an exception.

If Anthony can continue to defend at a high level in 2016-17, he can help set the tone for the Knicks as a team. Leading by example isn’t an easy thing to do, but it’s in the job description.

Realistic Expectation: 1.0 SPG, 42.0 OPP FG%

Primary Impact

The evolution of Carmelo Anthony is one that fits the mold of what Phil Jackson prefers to see from his ball-dominant players. Much as Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan excelled as facilitators, Anthony began to do the same in 2016-17.

The reality for Anthony was the same reality for Bryant and Jordan under Jackson: the ability to dominate as a scorer is still the most valuable individual trait a player can have.

Brandon Jennings, Kristaps Porzingis, and Derrick Rose have the ability to put up 20 points within the blink of an eye. Courtney Lee should average double-digit scoring numbers, Joakim Noah could do the same, and the New York Knicks’ bench is flush with shooters.

The reality is, the only way for the Knicks to live up to their immense potential is for Anthony to do what he does best: score.

Anthony is No. 29 on the NBA’s all-time scoring list, and he didn’t get there by luck or a single skill. He’s one of the most well-rounded scoring threats in NBA history, possessing a post game, range on his jump shot, crafty handles, and a quality presence on the offensive glass.

Anthony doesn’t necessarily need gaudy scoring numbers, but he needs to consistently step up in the clutch.

If Anthony can channel his old self in the closing moments of close games, the Knicks will be a postseason-caliber team in 2016-17. The pressure is on.