National Basketball Association

Memphis Grizzlies 2016-17 Season Preview: Battling Age And Injury

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

foxsports

Dec 11, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Mike Conley (11) and center Marc Gasol (33) look on during the second half against the Charlotte Hornets at FedExForum. The Hornets won 123-99. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

The Memphis Grizzlies are hoping to hold off age and injury for one last run in the Western Conference playoffs in 2016-17

The Memphis Grizzlies, with their small-market appeal and decidedly unglamorous play style, have worked their way into the hearts of many NBA fans. They have built up a strong reputation for success, particularly against higher-seeded playoff teams in recent years, and consistently have the reputation of a group that nobody wants to play.

This offseason was largely one of continuity, as the team’s leadership chose to keep the roster mostly intact. Once Mike Conley signed his new contract, the team’s direction was clear. As big as his new deal was, it gives the team stability for the next few seasons.

It’s easy to call for a rebuild with a team this old, but the viability of a full teardown in a market this small is questionable. In any case, the question of whether or not this team should rebuild is irrelevant since they clearly chose against this path.

Seen in the light of putting the best possible team on the court this season, the Grizzlies free agency decisions make perfect sense.

Conley’s signing wasn’t the only big move the Grizz made this offseason, since they also signed Chandler Parsons to a a four-year deal. Parson’s age and injury history are certainly a risk, but he provides immediate value to this team and should help them improve during the 2016-17 campaign.

Sep 26, 2016; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies forward Chandler Parsons (25) poses for a picture at Don Poier Media Center. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

Roster/Depth Chart

Parsons and Conely will both start (at forward and point guard, respectively), and will play alongside Tony Allen, JaMychal Green, and Marc Gasol. Notably, Zach Randolph is once again out of the starting lineup. This is an experienced, veteran unit, one that should easily be able to play at a competitive level in the NBA.

While the starting five are solid, the Grizzlies’ prospects behind these players are much worse. Randolph should be a great sixth man, but relying on players like Vince Carter (at this stage in his career) and Andrew Harrison for significant minutes could be problematic. Fans across the NBA saw what happened to this team when injuries struck last season, and Memphis hardly looks less vulnerable right now.

As a whole, the Memphis Grizzlies are a talented, if thin, team. Every player on the starting five is a capable NBA starter (if not more), and there are plenty of reasons to be excited about Memphis’ on-court product.

Oct 3, 2016; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies head coach David Fizdale looks on against the Orlando Magic during the first half at FedExForum. Memphis beat Orlando 102-97. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

Strengths/Weaknesses

For a team that maintained so much of last season’s roster, the strengths and weaknesses are fairly obvious. The Memphis Grizzlies make their living off of playing a slow-paced, defense-first brand of basketball, and that should easily continue this season.

The team’s ability to slow games down and force opponents to play at their pace is impressive, and this strategy is still Memphis’ best path to winning games.

Interestingly, Memphis actually posted better offensive than defensive ratings last season, but (especially because of injuries) this outcome feels like an outlier. This team doesn’t have the personnel to run teams off the floor with their scoring, and a return to a solid defensive unit seems like the best path to success.

Part of what makes the Grizzlies’ success over the past few years so impressive is that they rarely surprise teams with their style or execution. This is a fairly predictable team, but one that plays well and is always hard to beat. This year, that shouldn’t be any different from a planning perspective.

Mar 6, 2016; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Mike Conley (11) signals to his team as he dribbles in the first quarter against the Phoenix Suns at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Keys To Success

Mike Conley is easily the Grizzlies’ best player. His absence alone last year proved this fact, and his health this season is critical to any success. Conley may be overpaid in terms of his raw talent, but certainly is not in terms of his importance to Memphis.

Keeping him, and other key players, healthy is Memphis’ most important goal. Health is a theme that several analysts have pointed to in season previews for this team, and for good reason since the Grizzlies are uniquely vulnerable to injury.

Of course, with every team the threat of injury is always present — No team is deep enough to withstand ill-timed or uniquely devastating health setbacks. With Memphis, though, it seems a little different. Not only would multiple injuries be devastating given the team’s lack of depth, but the risk of that injury is higher than usual since their core players are fairly old.

In some ways, it’s a copout to say that a team’s chances depend on health, but here that judgment seems fair. Memphis is talented, experienced, but ultimately paper-thin. This isn’t a team of rookies and second-year players: everyone around the league knows the style and recent success associated with the Grizzlies. Whether or not that translates into wins this season will largely depend on how healthy their key players stay.

Jan 8, 2016; Memphis, TN, USA; Memphis Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph (50) and Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) against the Denver Nuggets during the second half at FedExForum. Memphis Grizzlies defeated Denver Nuggets 91 – 84. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction

Pessimism about injuries aside, this team still has a high ceiling. As low as the injury floor may be, it’s difficult to imagine a relatively healthy Memphis Grizzlies squad missing the playoffs.

The West is also much more open than it has been for several years. Golden State, San Antonio, and the Clippers are clearly a tier above Memphis, but the rest of the conference is much less impressive. Utah and Portland may also look slightly better right now, but that hardly seems like a guarantee.

Ultimately, though, the most likely finish for Memphis is a mid-to-low range playoff team.

Their depth issues will matter less if they can reach April healthy, but this team lacks the firepower to really challenge a team like San Antonio or the Clippers.

Final Prediction: 44-38, first round exit