National Basketball Association

Indiana Pacers: 2016-17 Season Outlook

Updated Mar. 5, 2020 12:10 a.m. ET

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Many questions surround the Indiana Pacers. Club president Larry Bird wants more scoring … and hired a coach whose track record is anything but fast-paced.

It’s an important season for Myles Turner, left, with the Indiana Pacers, now that superstar Paul George answered all of the questions about his ability to come back from a gruesome injury. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

The Indiana Pacers were a conundrum a year ago, with Paul George an unknown in his return from a horrific leg injury sustained in the summer of 2014 and a cast of characters that–on paper–didn’t appear to fit all that well together.

But the Pacers put together 45 wins, returned to the playoffs after a one-year hiatus and pushed the second-seeded Toronto Raptors to seven games before bowing out in the first round.

Coach Frank Vogel’s reward for that was to be sent to the door with his belonging in boxes, as the Pacers opted not to renew his contract.

Team president Larry Bird wanted Indiana to score more and play faster, as befits the space-and-pace era in which we find ourselves, and Vogel’s offense improved by almost five points per game over 2014-15.

The problem was that even that improvement only moved the Pacers to the middle of the pack, 17th, in scoring and they were 25th in offensive efficiency.

The brightest spot from last season was George, who answered all the doubts with a career year, setting career-highs in scoring, assists and steals while earning his third All-Star nod and this All-NBA selection.

Indiana also appears to have struck gold late in the lottery. The Pacers took Myles Turner with the 11th overall pick in 2015 and he put together a terrific rookie season, averaging 10.3 points and 5.5 rebounds per game and earning 30 starts in 60 regular-season appearances.

He was a force in the loss to the Raptors in the first round, as well, blocking 23 shots in seven games, a 3.3 per game clip.

Bird is rolling the dice as if he’s all in for 2016-17, trading George Hill in order to get former All-Star point guard Jeff Teague from the Atlanta Hawks and surrendering his first-round pick at No. 20 overall to the Brooklyn Nets in exchange for power forward Thaddeus Young.

Indiana appears set to start Turner in the middle this season, but got itself a whale of an insurance policy by signing free agent Al Jefferson, an All-NBA selection in Charlotte just two years ago.

Meanwhile, Vogel’s replacement is a familiar face. Nate McMillan moves up after three years as associate head coach. He was 478-452 in parts of 12 seasons with the Seattle SuperSonics and Portland Trail Blazers from 2000-12 and is tasked with making Bird’s offensive wishes come true.

His track record doesn’t exactly scream “offensive genius,” but the Pacers have solid role players around George in newcomers Teague and Young along with incumbent 2 guard Monta Ellis.

Whether Indiana has the firepower to get to Bird’s magic number is one question. Whether that is enough to push the Pacers back to the top of the Eastern Conference is another.

2015-16 Vitals

45-37, 2nd Central Division, 7th Eastern Conference
102.2 PPG (17th)/100.5 OPPG (8th)
104.6 Offensive Rating (25th)/102.9 Defensive Rating (3rd)

Team Leaders (minimum 42 games)
Scoring: Paul George 23.1 PPG
Rebounding: Ian Mahinmi 7.1 RPG
Assists: Monta Ellis 4.7 APG
Steals: Monta Ellis/Paul George 1.9 SPG
Blocks: Myles Turner 1.4 BPG

Honors
All-NBA 3rd Team: Paul George
All-Defensive 2nd Team: Paul George
All-Rookie 2nd Team: Myles Turner
All-Star: Paul George

Monta Ellis was quietly the second-leading scorer for the Indiana Pacers last season. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Roster

Lavoy Allen, F-C
Aaron Brooks, G
Rakeem Christmas, F
Monta Ellis, G
Jeremy Evans, F
Paul George, F
Al Jefferson, C
C.J. Miles, F-G
Georges Niang, F
Alex Poythress, F
Glenn Robinson, G-F
Kevin Seraphin, F-C
Julyan Stone, G
Rodney Stuckey, G
Jeff Teague, G
Myles Turner, F-C
Joe Young, G
Thaddeus Young, F
Nick Zeisloft, G

Offseason Additions

Offseason Departures

Quick Thoughts

The Indiana Pacers are a Hill-free zone in 2016-17 after having three players with that surname–George, Jordan and Solomon–on the roster last season.

The Pacers made a couple of nice veteran additions to the bench when they signed free agents Al Jefferson and Aaron Brooks. Jefferson is an upgrade over journeyman Ian Mahinmi, who signed with the Washington Wizards, while Brooks should be more effective than whatever version of Ty Lawson passed quickly through Indy last season.

After trading their first-round pick to the Brooklyn Nets, Indiana took Iowa State standout Georges Niang in Round 2 and signed the kid to a three-year contract, so there’s a pretty decent chance he makes the final 15-man roster come the end of October.

Getting a chance to return to the NBA is Julyan Stone, who last appeared in the league with the Toronto Raptors in 2013-14 and spent the last two seasons in Turkey. A 6-foot-6 combo guard, Stone has intriguing physical tools but couldn’t make the Oklahoma City Thunder last fall.

Rodney Stuckey, meanwhile, hopes to have a healthy season after being limited to 58 games in 2015-16 because of foot injuries, while C.J. Miles is back and ready to hoist some more three-pointers after averaging 6.0 attempts per game last season.

Thaddeus Young put up 15.1 points and a career-high 9.0 rebounds per game last season for the Nets and seems to have fallen out of love with the three-pointer, attempting only 30 last season after putting up 407 the previous two years. A 31.9 percent career shooter from distance, this seems a good career choice.

Larry Bird has said he wants more scoring from the Indiana Pacers after hiring a coach with a grind-it-out pedigree. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 1. The Magic/Madness Of Larry Bird

Whatever Larry Bird has tried in pro basketball, it’s usually worked.

The only man in history to win a regular-season MVP and Finals MVP as a player and later earn Coach of the Year and Executive of the Year honors, Bird has a definite idea of what he wants from his Indiana Pacers this season.

On the Dan Patrick Show last month, Bird put a number on his goal (per NBA.com):

“We want a style where we can score. I’d like to score 105 points a game or maybe 106, but still defend the way we have. Nate (McMillan)’s for over 900 games that he’s coached in the NBA and he’s got a style … I think he’s going to do an excellent job for us.”

Bird is, of course, absolutely right. Nate McMillan, the new coach, does have a distinctive style.

In 12 seasons with the Seattle SuperSonics and Portland Trail Blazers, McMillan’s teams embodied the seven-seconds-or-less offensive strategy … in that the ball usually crossed halfcourt in seven seconds or less.

It seems an odd match considering that in 12 seasons, McMillan never had a team average 100 points per game, much less 105.

His highest-scoring group was the 2008-09 Trail Blazers, who put up 99.4 points per game.

And if pace is what you’re looking for, you’ll find it with McMillan, because his teams played very, very slowly. Eight times, McMillan-coached teams finished in the bottom three in the NBA in pace, including three seasons in a row in Portland (2008-09 through 2010-11) in dead last.

But there are weapons, starting with Paul George, who averaged a career-best 23.1 points per game last season. Thaddeus Young can get up and down the floor and is a decent defender. Monta Ellis has always been at his best when he’s got room to run.

Yes, the selection of McMillan seems strange when combined with Bird’s stated offensive goals.

But he’s Larry Bird and his choices have turned out to be the right ones more often than not.

Myles Turner came along much more quickly than expected as a rookie. Can he handle the role of starting center in year two? Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 2. Can Myles Turner Go The Distance?

Myles Turner was taken by the Indiana Pacers with the 11th overall pick in the 2015 NBA Draft after a single season at Texas that was underwhelming, at best.

Turner averaged 10.1 points, 6.5 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game for the Longhorns while shooting .455/.274/.839 in 22.2 minutes per game.

There were critics everywhere entering the draft, particularly with regard to a perceived tendency to float on the perimeter, according to DraftExpress.com‘s pre-draft report.

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Turner missed 22 games last season with a chip fracture of his left thumb that required surgery, but when he returned in late December, he put together a rookie season that was unexpected.

He started 30 games of the 60 in which he played, averaging 10.3 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.4 blocks in 22.8 minutes a game on .498/3-for-14/.727 shooting.

Against the Toronto Raptors in the first round, Turner started four of the seven games in the series, responding with 10.3 points, 6.4 rebounds and 3.3 blocks in 28.1 minutes a night, while shooting .465/0-for-2/6-for-9.

Turner will get first crack at the starting center position with the departure of journeyman Ian Mahinmi to the Washington Wizards in free agency.

Turner adds an offensive dimension that Mahinmi could not, with his ability to shoot the mid-range jumper. Turner hit 42.5 percent of his attempts from 16 feet out to the arc and was a 40 percent shooter in the 10- to 15-foot area.

And the Pacers added a terrific in-house tutor/insurance policy in former All-NBA center Al Jefferson, who missed 35 games with an ailing knee last season and averaged 12.0 points in 23.3 minutes a game, mostly as a reserve, for the playoff-bound Charlotte Hornets.

Jefferson is entering his 13th season and has just 21 playoff games under his belt, so he’s hungry to win. He also has spent his entire adult life–Jefferson entered the league out of high school in 2004–and has that experience to pass along to the young project in Turner.

Physically, the two are very different–Jefferson is a hulking 289 points at 6-foot-10, while Turner is an inch taller at 6-foot-11 and checks in at 243 points.

If Turner is paying attention in practice, though, he should be able to pick up more than just the rudimentary low post game he displayed a season ago. If that happens to go with his ability from mid-range? Turner becomes a scary defensive proposition for opponents.

Jeff Teague (0) was acquired from the Atlanta Hawks to replace George Hill (3) at point guard for the Indiana Pacers. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 3. Jeff Teague The Right Guy For The Job

George Hill spent the last five years as the point guard for the Indiana Pacers and he was nothing if not a master of playing within his limitations.

He spotted up, he deferred ball-handling responsibilities to players more adept at creating offense, including Paul George and Lance Stephenson at varying times, and he did his work at the defensive end, piling up 13.5 defensive win shares from 2011-12 to 2015-16.

But if you were looking for a point guard willing to put a team on his back, lower his head and charge toward the rim in order to fire things up, Hill was not your guy. Only 22.2 percent of his shot attempts last season were at the rim and that’s up from his 20.4 percent mark as a Pacer.

Enter Jeff Teague.

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An All-Star in 2015 with the Atlanta Hawks, Teague is the antithesis of Hill in many ways.

Teague will penetrate with his quick feet and solid handle, getting to the rim for 37.2 percent of his attempts last season (converting on 56.3 percent, which was considerably down from the 61.9 percent mark of 2014-15).

Hill averaged just 3.9 assists per game with Indiana, a low rate for a starting point guard. Teague is more the prototypical playmaker in that respect, averaging 6.4 assists a night since becoming a starter in 2011-12.

Teague is what he is at this point; at age 28, upside is really no longer on the table. He’s quick, he will defend and he shot 40 percent from three-point range last season, a career-high.

Teague is also an Indianapolis native, so this trade brings him home. He’s already been building a rapport with franchise player Paul George during pre-training camp workouts this month, per NBA.com.

“(I)n the locker room, I was a little reserved and it probably was a little weird because we were both just sitting there … our lockets are kind of by each other, so it was a little awkward. But … we played and you could see the relationship growing.

“When you get on the floor and you start competing and you want to win, you start talking on the floor. You start opening up and start talking about what’s going on, and then you make a conversation off of that. It kind of worked out like that. … We’re going to work well together.”

Teague emerged as the floor leader for the Hawks, but was deemed expendable with the emergence of 2013 first-round pick Dennis Schroder. Now he gets an opportunity to come home to Indy and set a quicker tone for the Pacers.

After three years as Frank Vogel’s top assistant, Nate McMillan takes over the lead chair on the bench this season. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Best Case Scenario

The Indiana Pacers move up the scoring list in the NBA and the win total follows.

With Nate McMillan keeping many of the same defensive principles in place, Indiana storms its way to 50-plus wins and makes things interesting for the Cleveland Cavaliers for awhile before settling for a second seed in the East.

Paul George’s numbers continue to grow as he becomes a 25-points-per-game scorer for the first time in his career and finishes in the top five in the MVP voting, while Myles Turner gains consideration for Most Improved Player after a solid year.

Worst Case Scenario

Some of the faces are new, but the results are eerily similar. The Pacers’ commitment to finding more offense and playing faster goes by the boards.

Once again, Indiana is in the moshpit of teams fighting for the last couple of playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. Myles Turner plays better, but foul trouble puts more weight on the shoulders of Al Jefferson than his aging body wants to handle.

The growing pains of adjusting to a new point guard in Jeff Teague take a bit longer to get through and the Pacers have to battle back from a slow start. They sneak into the playoffs, but just barely, and another first-round exit once again sends Larry Bird back to the drawing board.

C.J. Miles wasn’t shy about firing it up from long range last season–61 percent of his shots were from behind the three-point line. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction

A season ago, I projected the Indiana Pacers for about 38 wins while saying that nothing between 30 and 50 victories would be a huge shock.

As it turns out, the Pacers won 45.

This season looks much the same. Jeff Teague is a marginal upgrade over George Hill at point guard, at least at the offensive end, and Al Jefferson brings experience and aging legs to the middle.

Thaddeus Young, meanwhile, is the prototype of the good-numbers-for-not-so-good-teams player. He’s always had solid stats and he’s never played much of a role in making a team better than it would be without him.

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The biggest stumbling block in trying to be bullish on the Pacers is the logical disconnect between Larry Bird’s “score more” mandate and the hiring of Nate McMillan, whose offensive strategies have always been only slightly more advanced than Norman Dale’s “four passes” offense for the Hickory Huskers in Hoosiers.

Expect the Pacers to be in the cauldron of teams fighting to get to around .500 and grab one of the last playoff spots in the Eastern Conference.

Of course, if Indiana was to break out and win 50 or more games, it wouldn’t be a total shocker.

Different DJ, same song.

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