National Basketball Association

Denver Nuggets: 2016-17 Season Outlook

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 1:05 p.m. ET

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The Denver Nuggets have plenty of young talent on their roster, but can they find enough minutes for everyone? Here’s a look at their 2016-17 season outlook.

Jan 23, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Danilo Gallinari (8) and guard Emmanuel Mudiay (0) celebrate during the second half against the Detroit Pistons at Pepsi Center. The Nuggets won 104-101. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

The Denver Nuggets may have only won 33 games last season, but for the first time since the 2012-13 season, there’s a scent in the Mile High air other than marijuana — optimism! (Also, probably marijuana.)

Despite being in the early stages of a youth-centered rebuild, the Nuggets and their head coach Michael Malone have done an excellent job creating a new, positive basketball culture.

It hasn’t shown up in the home attendance numbers or the win-loss column yet, but when older veterans like Darrell Arthur and Danilo Gallinari are asking the front office not to be traded so they can be a part of something, you know you’re on the right track.

This young team has plenty of talent and veteran leadership to build upon moving forward. The biggest challenge for the Nuggets at this point will be striking the right balance of minutes between their established vets and their extensive collection of promising youngsters — particularly at crowded shooting guard and power forward positions.

With last season’s third-best rookie (Nikola Jokic) and an exciting but raw point guard (Emmanuel Mudiay) leading the way, Denver’s 2016-17 season is going to be a trial and error process for a lot of young guys.

That being said, with Gallo and Wilson Chandler returning healthy and younger guys like Gary Harris and Jusuf Nurkic starting to get acclimated, the Nuggets might be better than most people think next season.

2015-16 Vitals

33-49, 4th in Northwest Division, 10th in Western Conference
101.9 PPG (20th)/105.0 OPP PPG (22nd)
150.6 Offensive Rating (17th)/108.9 Defensive Rating (24th)

Team Leaders
Scoring: Danilo Gallinari, 19.5 PPG
Rebounding: Kenneth Faried, 8.7 RPG
Assists: Emmanuel Mudiay, 5.5 APG
Steals: Gary Harris, 1.3 SPG
Blocks: Jusuf Nurkic, 1.4 BPG

Honors
NBA All-Rookie First Team: Nikola Jokic

Jun 23, 2016; New York, NY, USA; Jamal Murray (Kentucky) greets NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected as the number seven overall pick to the Denver Nuggets in the first round of the 2016 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

2016-17 Roster

Darrell Arthur, PF
Will Barton, SF
Malik Beasley, SG
Wilson Chandler, SF
Kenneth Faried, PF
Danilo Gallinari, SF
Gary Harris, SG
Juancho Hernangomez, PF
Robbie Hummel, SF
Nikola Jokic, C
D.J. Kennedy, SF
Mike Miller, SG
Emmanuel Mudiay, PG
Jamal Murray, SG
Jameer Nelson, PG
Jusuf Nurkic, C
JaKarr Sampson, SG
Jarnell Stokes, PF
Axel Toupane, SG

Offseason Additions
Malik Beasley (19th overall draft pick, Florida State), Juancho Hernangomez (15th overall draft pick, Movistar Estudiantes {Spain}), Robbie Hummel (free agent, Emporio Armani Milano {Italy}), D.J. Kennedy (free agent, Yenisey Krasnoyarsk {Russia}), Jamal Murray (7th overall draft pick, Kentucky), Jarnell Stokes (free agency, D-League)

Offseason Subtractions
D.J. Augustin (free agency, Orlando Magic), Randy Foye (free agency, Brooklyn Nets), Joffrey Lauvergne (trade, Oklahoma City Thunder)

Quick Thoughts

With the exception of a few new rookies and the departure of Joffrey Lauvergne, the Nuggets’ 2016-17 roster is nearly identical to last year’s team.

The new arrivals do put head coach Michael Malone in a bit of a spot, however. Gary Harris made great strides on both ends of the floor last year unbeknownst to the outside world, but drafting a combo guard like Jamal Murray complicates the future of Denver’s backcourt.

Murray probably won’t challenge Harris for minutes as a rookie, especially since Harris is poised for a breakout season. But the addition of another rookie shooting guard — Malik Beasley — further crowds the 2-spot, and that’s not the only position that’s starting to feel a bit cramped.

Even with Lauvergne gone, the Nuggets frontcourt is packed with Kenneth Faried, Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic, Darrell Arthur and Juan Hernangomez — not to mention Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler, who will both be healthy again and can log time as small-ball 4s.

How Malone divvies up minutes between the Emmanuel Mudiay-Harris-Murray trio and manages to find time for everyone in the frontcourt remains to be seen, but one thing is for certain: These young Nuggets have plenty of young talent at almost every position.

Jan 10, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) during the first half against the Charlotte Hornets at Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 1. Developing The Youth

Like the Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix Suns in the West, the Denver Nuggets don’t need to make the playoffs in 2016-17. As long as their young, foundational pieces continue to show progress, the season will be a success.

That starts with Nikola Jokic, the surprising second-rounder who stole Mudiay’s thunder as Denver’s best rookie, finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting behind averages of 10.0 points, 7.0 rebounds and 2.4 assists in just 21.7 minutes per game.

Jokic’s true value lies in his advanced statistics, all of which indicate his efficiency and skill with the ball in his hands. As the team’s starting center, his versatility and ongoing development have become intrinsic to what the Nuggets are trying to build.

Then there’s Mudiay, who had a less than stellar rookie campaign contrary to what his 12.8 points and 5.5 assists per game would lead you to believe. Denver will be hoping he can cut back on his turnovers (3.2 per game) and improve his horrendous shooting splits (.364/.319/.670) in his second season.

On the brighter side, Harris looked like the real deal in his second season, posting .469/.354/.820 shooting splits while doubling as the team’s best perimeter defender. Harris is already a lockdown defender and at age 21, he’s only going to get better. If he can continue to fine-tune his three-point efficiency, Jamal Murray will have an impossible task ahead of him if he sets his goals on starting.

Speaking of which, Denver’s roster is filled with promising rookies who will be fighting for minutes. Murray has the makings of a complete scorer, but he will be playing behind Harris and may be competing with Will Barton, JaKarr Sampson, Axel Toupane and fellow rookie Malik Beasley for minutes at shooting guard.

With Gallo and Chandler back, Barton may be moved to the 2 at times, giving Malone a plethora of options to choose from and no clear-cut answers as to how to balance all that youth and veteran experience.

That holds particularly true in the case of rookie Juan Hernangomez, since his direct competition will be Kenneth Faried and Darrell Arthur — useful players in their own right, but ones who are not necessarily essential to what the Nuggets are trying to build.

In any case, Denver’s top priority entering the 2016-17 season is allowing the young players to grow on a semi-competitive team. Whether the youngsters can make enough of a leap to challenge for a playoff spot remains to be seen, but the Nuggets’ success won’t be determined by their place in the standings at season’s end.

Mar 6, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Kenneth Faried (35) celebrates with guard Emmanuel Mudiay (0) after a play in the fourth quarter against the Dallas Mavericks at the Pepsi Center. The Nuggets defeated the Mavericks 116-114 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 2. Faried’s Future

Kenneth Faried is a truly unique case in the NBA. He’s been simultaneously overrated and underrated over the last few years; overpaid and then labeled a bargain contract; admired and undesired; beloved by the fan base and then dismissed as an inevitable trade piece.

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The Manimal has never improved the glaring weaknesses of his game, preventing him from ever putting all his innate physical gifts to use in the pursuit of a higher gear. He still can’t shoot, his game is still dependent on his athleticism, he’s not a great defender and at the end of the day, he’s too easy to write off as nothing more than a hustle guy.

The only problem is, there’s nothing wrong with that. Plenty of NBA teams in need of frontcourt depth would love to have a workhorse like Faried, even if they wouldn’t be particularly keen to give anything valuable up for him.

Therein lies Denver’s problem. Everyone around the league knows Faried’s long-term fit there has been clouded by doubts and the noticeable flaws in his game, and with young studs like Jokic, Nurkic and now Hernangomez populating the frontcourt, it’s only a matter of time before the trade whispers turn to more audible trade buzz.

Can Jokic and Nurkic play together if Jokic is able to spread the floor? That’s one thing Malone will probably experiment with this season, and if the results are encouraging, Faried’s place on this roster will come into question — as it will if Hernangomez shows signs of being a potential replacement in the near future.

At age 26, the undersized Faried is coming off a season in which he averaged 12.5 points and 8.7 rebounds per game on 55.8 percent shooting. But not one of his three head coaches in his five-year career have played him 30 minutes per game, and his production may have already peaked.

The Nuggets love Faried and the energy he brings to the table, but when the day for looking for a legitimate replacement comes, will Denver be willing to part with him? And will they be able to move him and cut ties with one of their favorite players who might be more valued in the Mile High City than anywhere else in the league?

Dec 15, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) blocks the shot by Denver Nuggets forward Danilo Gallinari (8) in the second half at Target Center. The Nuggets won 112-100. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Three Key Storylines: 3. Are The Nuggets The Real Western Dark Horse?

In terms of Western Conference dark horses, the Timberwolves are the popular pick to sneak into the playoffs. They’ve got the reigning unanimous Rookie of the Year in Karl-Anthony Towns, another former No. 1 pick in Andrew Wiggins, Ricky Rubio, Ricky Rubio’s potential replacement in Kris Dunn, and a head coach who’s going to whip that defense into shape.

But the Wolves only won 29 games last year, and even if Tom Thibodeau can transform the NBA’s 27th ranked defense overnight, making the playoffs and improving by that many games is a tall task.

I humbly suggest another option: the Denver Nuggets, who won 33 games last year and have very few new pieces to incorporate. They have the continuity factor in their favor as Malone enters his second season at the helm, and if Nurkic, Gallo and Chandler can just stay healthy, this is a versatile and extremely skilled team.

With so many players who can shoot and make plays off the dribble at different positions, the Nuggets’ best lineups could be downright amoebic in nature at their peak.

Last season, it only took 41 games to sneak into the playoffs out West. It’s unreasonable to expect that to happen again, but outside of the three locks in the conference — Golden State, San Antonio and Lob City — the other five playoff spots are virtually up for grabs in a Western bloodbath.

The Nuggets would need a big year from Mudiay, a significant leap from Jokic, more improvement from Harris and uncharacteristically great injury luck to get there, but don’t count them out of the playoff race too soon. This is a team that could surprise some people, and even if it doesn’t result in a postseason berth, that’s not the main goal of the 2016-17 campaign anyway.

Feb 23, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Will Barton (5), forward Danilo Gallinari (8), and guard Gary Harris (14) during the game against the Brooklyn Nets at Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

Best-Case Scenario

Jokic makes a giant leap in his second season as he grows accustomed to consistent starter’s minutes. Mudiay shows marginal improvement in his jump shot, while Harris establishes himself as a legitimate 3-and-D shooting guard.

Faried averages a double-double to boost up his league-wide trade value, making it easier to deal him down the road once the Nuggets are comfortable with whoever they find to replace him at power forward.

Nurkic stays healthy and reminds people why they were so high on him before Jokic arrived, Hernangomez proves his worth as a developing stretch-4 and both Gallo and Chandler stay healthy for once. Malone’s defense tightens down and the Nuggets win around 44 games to sneak into the playoffs.

Worst-Case Scenario

Nurkic and Gallo are unable to stay healthy once again, robbing Denver’s league-worst attendance of two fan favorites that make the team decidedly more fun to watch. Jokic struggles to prove the analytics from his rookie season could be sustained over heavier minutes, physically struggling to keep up over the course of an 82-game grind against bigger and stronger centers.

Malone has a hard time siphoning off minutes between the veterans and younger crowd once the Ls start piling up, making it hard for Faried to find a groove and boost his trade value back up.

Mudiay makes very little progress on his outside jumper, limiting his progress as defenders are able to play off him and take away his playmaking. The Nuggets sputter to around 30 wins and have to deal with adding another mid-lottery selection to an already crowded roster.

Apr 10, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Utah Jazz guard Rodney Hood (5) controls the ball against Denver Nuggets center Jusuf Nurkic (23) and center Nikola Jokic (15) and forward Will Barton (5) and guard Emmanuel Mudiay (0) in the second quarter at the Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Predictions

In my mind, the Nuggets have as good a chance of being a dark horse playoff threat next season as the Timberwolves do. Unfortunately, I don’t see either team enjoying the kind of one-year internal growth it’ll take to snag one of those top eight spots, especially in a conference due for a bounce-back year.

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Mudiay should be able to build on a couple of strong months near the end of his rookie season, showing enough improvement in his shooting to signify it’s too early to give up on him. Jokic will have a mini-breakout season in 2016-17, showing the world what he can do in consistent starter’s minutes and establishing himself as a foundational centerpiece.

Nurkic will once again have some problems staying healthy, but it won’t be nearly as bad as it’s been in his first two seasons. The Bosnian Bear will show enough flashes of potential for the Nuggets to remain high on him, especially when playing alongside Jokic.

Faired’s place on the roster will come into question, as will Gallo’s once he’s inevitably banged up. Hernangomez struggles in limited action, but that’s to be expected from a rookie. Murray gets decent run off the bench, but obviously fails to usurp the more deserving Harris from his starting gig.

Harris proves he’s the real deal in Year 3, improving his outside shooting and developing a reputation as one of the league’s elite lockdown defenders. Malone and the Nuggets make the necessary internal progress in the second full year of their rebuild, but they only win 35 games and miss the playoffs.

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