National Basketball Association

Atlantic Division Breakdown: Celtics vs Raptors

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Breaking down the key Atlantic Division matchup between the Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors

After thoroughly dominating the Atlantic division for years, the Boston Celtics have endured a four year drought, and the Toronto Raptors have taken home the last three. The Raptors have had a firm hold on the division for the entirety of the Brad Stevens era, but this is the first time the Celtics will not be a clear cut underdog.

The Celtics were closer than expected last season and bringing in the the second best free agent finally gives the Celtics the talent they need to contend. The Raptors should still be the Celtics’ biggest competition for the division crown but they finally have the pieces to get the matchup advantage.

The Boston Celtics were the number one team generating turnovers last year, and that will always be a factor in their victories. The Raptors are an intriguing matchup for the Celtics’ aggressive defense, largely because they are a good offensive team, with relatively no ball movement.

The Celtics are great at disrupting ball movement and that is one of the best ways for them to generate steals. That becomes problematic on a team that does not depend on that ball movement. Only the Lakers had fewer assists than the Raptors last year, but they still managed to score over 100 points per game, and were slightly above league average at 13th best.

Toronto also played at the second slowest pace in the NBA last season, and that could hurt Boston’s success on both ends. The Celtics love to run and they did a great job of rushing teams into bad situations, ready to take the steal down for an easy transition bucket. The Raptors will be able to neutralize that.

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The Raptors should be able to get into their half court offense and find the players that have proven they can score for them. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry combined for 44.7 points per game last year, and they know exactly how they need to attack.

Fortunately, the Celtics also have the on ball defenders to cause the disruption they need. Lowry has been masterful running the Raptors’ offense, and has proven that he will make plays for himself and his teammates. The Celtics can then respond with arguably the best defensive guard in the NBA, Avery Bradley.

Bradley has proven he has no problem defending the best the league has to offer, and if he plays to his capabilities and takes Lowry out of his game, then the Raptors could lose any edge on offense. The Celtics also have the depth to throw multiple players at Lowry. Marcus Smart would have no problem matching up against Lowry. In fact, his additional size could put him in a better position than Bradley who weighs in at 25 less pounds than Lowry.

Jan 20, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry (7) handles the ball as Boston Celtics guard Avery Bradley (0) tries to defend during the second quarter in a game at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Smart’s role would likely put him against Corey Joseph, who was a great option for the Raptors off the bench. Smart, however, should have no problem handling Joseph, taking away their best offensive option on the second unit.

The Celtics certainly have the guards to defend the Raptors but they still have to deal with DeRozan. Luckily, the Celtics’ best on ball defender, Jae Crowder, would draw that matchup. Crowder has proven that he can keep up with the best the league has to offer, and he has the size to handle one of the most aggressive drivers in the league.

DeRozan against Crowder could be the most important matchup between these teams. DeRozan has proven that he can take matters into his own hands offensively, and if he is able to produce against Crowder then the Celtics will have no better option to face him. Jaylen Brown could get an opportunity but it is unrealistic to expect a rookie to be able to effectively defend DeRozan. The only other option would be an undersized Smart.

The biggest difference between these teams from last season is the interior. The Celtics added Al Hoford and he is easily the best center or power forward in this series. Horford has proven that he can defend someone like Jonas Valanciunas, and Jared Sullinger is far away on both ends.

Amir Johnson may not be a distinct advantage over either of those Raptors, but he can certainly hold his own against them. Defensively, the Celtics should have nothing to fear in Valanciunas and Sullinger, and now that Bismack Biyombo is gone the second unit will be in much better shape, especially on the boards.

Defensively, the Celtics have all the pieces they need to account for any way the Raptors can attack them. The difficulties are more likely to come on the offensive end. Pace will be absolutely crucial. If the Raptors control the pace then the Celtics may not get enough opportunities.

The Celtics have the overall better defensive guards, but Lowry will not be an easy matchup for Thomas. Lowry has a great size advantage, and if he throws Thomas off his game and shuts down their ball movement, they may not be able to score enough points.

Fortunately, Thomas has the most offensive help he’s had in his career. They will need Horford to be able to stretch the floor and if that opens up the paint they have plenty of players that can attack, and that is where Thomas is at his best. The Celtics cannot afford to rely too much on the jump shot because that will require too many opportunities to score enough. If the Celtics are not getting their most in transition and the Raptors slow down the pace at all, then they need to create easier opportunities in the paint.

The second unit could also be a deciding factor for the Celtics. It still remains far too difficult to gauge exactly what the second unit will be like. The Raptors’ bench scored almost eight fewer points per game than Boston last year, but both these second units lost key pieces.

Evan Turner and Biyombo were crucial to both teams last season, but the Celtics should have the depth to accommodate the loss of Turner. The problem for the Celtics is the amount of youth and development they are depending on. If things work out well with Smart, Rozier and Brown, then the Raptors could be in trouble. However, how good those three will be this season is far too uncertain at this point.

The biggest concern for the Raptors will be Kelly Olynyk, and he needs to be the best offensive option. If the Celtics are slowed down by the Raptors then they will need to lean even more on their few trusted shooters, and the Raptors could have their hands full with Olynyk.

The Celtics and Raptors are expected to have the best fight for the division in the Brad Stevens era, and it could be one of the biggest matchups in the Eastern Conference. Both teams believe they are at least the second best team in the East, and home court should be decided in the four games between these two teams.

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