NASCAR Chase Tracker: Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick First Drivers To Clinch

NASCAR has a new playoff system in 2026. It’s back to the Chase.

Instead of win-and-in, it’s the top-16 drivers in the regular-season standings that will make the 10-race Chase, which will be a mini-season of its own with no eliminations. 

The 16 drivers will have their points reset for the start of the final 10-race stretch with the regular-season champion at 2,100 points, second place at 2,075, third place at 2,065, fourth place at 2,060 and so on by five-point increments with 16th reset to 2,000.

Six races remain in the regular season: North Wilkesboro, Indianapolis, Iowa, Richmond, New Hampshire and Daytona.

So who is in and who is out? 

Here’s a look:

Clinched

Two drivers have clinched spots in the field of 16:

— Denny Hamlin: The Joe Gibbs Racing driver clinched a spot after Atlanta with six races remaining. He has a 24-point edge on Tyler Reddick in the battle for the regular-season title.

— Tyler Reddick: The 23XI driver also clinched a spot after Atlanta with six races remaining. His five wins this year lead the series.

Tyler Reddick (L) and Denny Hamlin are the first drivers to clinch spots in The Chase.

In Good Shape

There are eight drivers who are 104 points or more above the cutline, and the last on that list (Chase Briscoe) would have to lose an average of 17 points a race to fall out. At Atlanta, only three drivers lost more than 17 points to the cutoff — Briscoe (lost 27 points after finishing 36th), Bubba Wallace (lost 22 points after finishing 29th) and Kyle Larson (lost 20 points after finishing 34th but with eight stage points). So they would need similar finishes in many of the upcoming races to drop out.

— Ryan Blaney (+288): The Team Penske driver now has two wins, and his 15 top 10s lead the series.

— Ty Gibbs (+227): The JGR driver earned his first career Cup victory this year and has eight top fives. Four DNFs are the only thing holding him back in the standings.

— Chase Elliott (+172): The Hendrick driver has enjoyed his best start to a season with two victories already. He would like a little more consistency.

— Kyle Larson (+156): The Hendrick Motorsports driver and defending series champion leads all drivers with 169 stage points this year.

Kyle Larson doesn't have a win on the season but does lead in stage points.

— Chris Buescher (+130): The RFK Racing driver doesn’t have a race win or a stage win all year, but he has consistent finishes.

— Carson Hocevar (+125): The Spire driver has a win this year along with five top fives, eight top 10s and no DNFs. A pure example of why he should feel relatively safe in this spot — he finished 22nd a couple of weeks ago at Chicagoland with no stage points and still only lost three points to the cutoff.

— Christopher Bell (+113): The JGR driver is feeling the pain of a broken left wrist. But he went from 60 points above the cutoff to 113 in the last three weeks. He's safe.

— Chase Briscoe (+104): The JGR driver gained 52 points on the cutline with his win at Chicagoland and that put him in the feeling safe category rather than on the bubble. He finished pretty much last at Atlanta last week and still has a decent cushion.

On The Bubble

One or two good or bad races could change who is in and who is out, especially if any drivers below the bubble win a race or two. With 76 points being the most available in a race, I'd say right now any driver 100 points above or below is on the bubble. And the first two on this list should feel good without a collapse.

— Daniel Suárez (+91): The Spire Motorsports driver might be the biggest surprise of the season. He should feel relatively good but just can't have poor speed and crashes over the next six weeks.

— William Byron (+82): The Hendrick driver has had an uncharacteristically inconsistent season and still seeks his first win. The frustration at Atlanta was evidence that the pressure could be getting to this team.

— Bubba Wallace (+55): The 23XI driver had a wild last six races with finishes of third, 21st, second, 22nd, sixth and 29th. A couple of more strong runs in the final six weeks should keep him above the cut.

— Austin Cindric (+32): The Team Penske driver likely expected to not be on the bubble, but seeing teammate Joey Logano below the cutline is a sign that the organization has work to do.

— Shane van Gisbergen (+31): The Trackhouse Racing driver won at Sonoma to go from five points below the cut to 36 points ahead. He then was 25th at Chicagoland and lost six points to the cut and then finished sixth at Atlanta to gain a point and be 31 points above the cut. It likely will come down to the final race for SVG.

SVG finds himself squarely on the bubble despite a win at Sonoma.

— Erik Jones (+8): The Legacy Motor Club driver has surged as of late, but a rough Sonoma dropped him back below the cutline before a 15th-place finish combined with a 32nd for Ryan Preece at Chicagoland put him back above the cutline. He was fifth at Atlanta and will likely need a couple more top-fives to hold off Logano and/or Preece.

— Joey Logano (-8): The Team Penske driver, a three-time Cup champion, should never be counted out. His 12th-place finish at Chicagoland and ninth-place finish at Atlanta allowed him to gain 23 points on the cutline. He'll need a few more top-10s – and that's very possible.

— Ryan Preece (-26): The RFK driver is a fighter and likely has a chip on his shoulder after a 25-point penalty earlier this year for intentionally wrecking Ty Gibbs. And the fact he got caught up in an incident early at Chicagoland, dropping him below the cutline, will only fuel that fight. But a 24th-place finish at Atlanta has to sting.

— Brad Keselowski (-43): The RFK driver, the 2012 Cup champion, was up 55 points on the cutline seven races ago. He could rally quickly, but he's going to have to get going. 

— Ross Chastain (-45): The Trackhouse driver had back-to-back top 10s entering Sonoma, but three finishes outside the top 10 are making the hill much bigger to climb.

Ross Chastain has some work to do in order to make The Chase.

— Michael McDowell (-47): The Spire Motorsports driver didn't take enough advantage of the road-course races. He can’t have a bad finish the rest of the way and that likely won't be enough.

--AJ Allmendinger (-50): The Kaulig Racing driver has been within striking range of the Chase but a 37th-place finish at Atlanta cost him 34 points to the cut — and his chances are now looking slim.

— Zane Smith (-90): The Front Row driver will need to rattle off some top-five finishes to get back in the mix. Getting into spats with Carson Hocevar won't help all that much.

— Todd Gilliland (-93): The FRM driver has been just a little too inconsistent this year, but he's still alive in the in-season tournament!

— Riley Herbst (-96): The 23XI driver lost 26 points to the cutline at Sonoma and then gained 21 points with a 10th at Chicagoland. And then lost 33 points with a 35th at Atlanta. 

Little Or No Chance

No one has been eliminated from contention yet, but these 10 drivers appear too far back to have even a remote chance to rally.

— Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-102): His chances have slipped away — he lost 21 points to the cutline at Atlanta.

— John Hunter Nemechek (-102): The Legacy driver could ride the wave of improvement in the Legacy cars, but it is now too tall of a task to make the Chase.

— Austin Dillon (-119): The Richard Childress Racing driver will be a favorite at Richmond and could win one of the drafting-style races at Atlanta or Daytona. But even a win or two won't be enough.

— Alex Bowman (-165): The Hendrick driver missed four races because of vertigo earlier this year. He has three top-five finishes and just one additional top-10 finish.

— Noah Gragson (-205): The FRM driver has shown speed at times, but the finishes aren’t there.

— Ty Dillon (-208): The Kaulig driver still seeks his first top 10 of the season.

— Cole Custer (-209): The Haas Factory Team driver still seeks his first top 10.

— Josh Berry (-213): The Wood Brothers driver already knows he won’t be back next season, and it could be a tough final half of 2026.

Josh Berry won't return to his Wood Brothers car next season.

— Connor Zilisch (-238): The Trackhouse rookie has had a miserable season, having failed to finish seven of the 20 races.

— Cody Ware (-277): The Rick Ware Racing driver also seeks his first top 10 of the year.

O’Reilly Series: 

Three races remain in the regular season and 12 will advance. Clinched: Justin Allgaier, Jesse Love.

Truck Series:

Four races remain in the regular season and 10 advance. Clinched: Layne Riggs, Kaden Honeycutt.

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