Major League Baseball

2022 World Series odds: Super 6 picks, best bets for Astros-Phillies Game 3

Updated Nov. 1, 2022 12:56 p.m. ET

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By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

Class, first, my apologies for postponing class yesterday. There was so much rain we couldn’t possibly have class without getting drenched. Now, let’s get back to work on your final exam: the World Series.  

Again, keep your eyes on your own papers for this last stretch because we’re going to go over Game 3, the overall series and some Super 6 fun. 

So let's dive in, with odds, of course, courtesy of FOX Bet!

Houston Astros' Jeremy Pena exclusive interview after World Series Game 2

Houston Astros' Jeremy Pena gives an exclusive interview after World Series Game 2 with Ben Verlander.

RELATED: Best World Series MVP Bets

Houston Astros (McCullers) at Philadelphia Phillies (Suárez) (8:03 p.m. ET Tuesday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

First, let’s go over the new World Series schedule: Games 3-5 are Tuesday-Thursday in Philadelphia, Friday is a possible travel day and Games 6 and 7, if necessary, will be Saturday and Sunday in Houston. Because of the extra day of rest, Ranger Suárez, who pitched in relief in Game 1, can go on three days’ rest. He will now take the mound instead of Noah Syndergaard.   

I’ll explain what that move will mean for the rest of the series later. For now, the Astros must face a pitcher who likes to keep his pitches low and away from right-handed hitters, also known as zones 9 and 14 on Baseball Savant’s strike zone:

This look is from the catcher’s perspective. For these zones, Astros hitters have an expected on-base percentage of .299, but for zones 7 and 13, which is inside to righties, it’s .338, the best in MLB. Having Suárez pitching is a significant advantage for the Phillies.

The Astros will still send Lance McCullers to the mound. He may have been taking notes from Game 2, which seemed like the first time in a long time that Phillies bats couldn't get their ball club back into the game. Framber Valdez allowed just five hard-hit balls in more than six innings of work, causing manageable ground balls with sinkers and curveballs. It’s interesting because, at least with the curve, the Phillies have one of the better lineups attacking that pitch, ranking seventh in pitch value.

McCullers uses a slider, curve and sinker mix to pepper the edges of the strike zone and may be more traditionally effective. He has not pitched as much this season as many other starters, but against these same Phillies just a few weeks ago, McCullers only allowed one earned run in six innings of work. He could have a repeat performance. 

Now to answer your question: will all of this be on the test? The answer is yes! As I mentioned in our MVP class, Jose Altuve is one of my favorite MVP bets. For today, I like his anytime home run (+475 on FOX Bet). While it has seemed like he’s been swinging too wildly early in October, he did hang 28 dingers on opposing pitchers in the regular season and is now heating up, so pounce immediately.   

Also, after Suárez, Philadelphia’s bullpen may be due for regression to the mean. In the regular season, Philadelphia relief pitching ranked 13th in expected batting average allowed (.228), but in the postseason, they’ve been fifth-best at .187 — an improvement of more than 40 points. At some point, one pitcher may get into some trouble against some outstanding hitters. Houston can cover the run line (+105 on FOX Bet).   

Lastly, for bets concerning the entire series, while I do think the Astros win this game outright, potentially saving the Phillies’ bullpen game for later may eventually yield a win. While it’s not the 2001 Diamondbacks with Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson, the goal for Philadelphia is to use Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola as much as possible. Nola could go on short rest in Game 7, so there is value in betting on the series going 7 games (+155 on FOX Bet).   

PICK: Astros (-1 run line) to win by more than 1 run (+105 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $20.50 total)
PICK: Jose Altuve to hit a home run (+475 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $57.50 total)
PICK: 7 Total World Series Games (+155 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $25.50 total)

Another way to earn a good grade is by answering the FOX Bet Super 6 question-and-answer portion of the class. Here are some tips, so you can cash in on the contest!

Super 6 Contest Picks

How many total runs will be scored in the game?

I think it’s telling that this game has a total of 7.5 at FOX Bet and shaded to the Over when, in the past, we’ve often seen 7. That we’re getting deeper into the series and the weather won’t be incredibly cold in Philadelphia tonight leads me to believe it’s ok to trust the market. Take 8-9 runs. 

Which team will throw the most strikeouts and how many will they have?

Suárez is not a strikeout artist, having a rate of 19.5% this season. While his bullpen help has a strikeout rate of 30.4%, plan to see the starter going a little longer to keep as many arms as rested as possible. McCullers’ K% is 25.6% and Houston’s bullpen can strike out a lot of hitters, so I’ll take the Astros but with a modest 6. 

Which team will have the most hits and how many will they have?

Because I expect a slightly higher-scoring contest that the Astros win, they should have several hits tonight. Because Suárez and company may try to keep the ball down, there may not be a lot of home runs beyond the usual suspects, so I like 10.   

Again, think of multiple paths where this number could hit. If this game goes into extra innings, a higher number would also make more sense. 

Which team will have the most combined individual baserunners left on base and how many will they have?

Because I have the Astros with a lot of singles and doubles but also some strikeouts, it may be a high number. If they have ten hits but eight of them are singles and doubles, add to that a smattering of walks, and you have a lot of possibilities. I like 11-12. 

Which team will have the most at-bats and how many will they have?

Let’s do some simple math: there are 27 at-bats for the Astros at a minimum (remember, plate appearances are different because they include walks), "10 hits" is the number I like, so let’s go with 37.

Which team will win and by how many runs?

Even though the series will eventually resume in Philadelphia and the scene will be electric, Astros hitters are too much to withstand over the course of any series. Houston will win this game by a 5-3 score, so 2 runs is my pick.

Class dismissed!

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football.  Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports. 

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MLB - Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies - 11/01/2022

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