CFP Intrigue Rankings: Which First-Round Games Have the Best Storylines?

With the first round of the College Football Playoff this weekend, there are four win-or-go-home college football games. Each contest is a battle between two teams with their seasons on the line, hoping to advance to the quarterfinals and one step closer to a national title. Those stakes bring excitement to each matchup, which will be played on college campuses. 

The first round opens Friday with No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma on Friday night, followed Saturday by No. 10 Miami (Fla.) at No. 7 Texas A&M, No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss and No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon. Meanwhile, No. 1 Indiana, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Texas Tech each have first-round byes and will play their first CFP games this year in the quarterfinals. 

[College Football Playoff Predictions: First-Round Winners to The National Champion]

But which games make for the most intriguing storylines and best stakes?

Here are our rankings for the four first-round College Football Playoff games: 

4. No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 11 Tulane 

Ole Miss beat Tulane 45-10 on Sept. 20th in Oxford, Mississippi. (Photo by Andy Altenburger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels host No. 11 Tulane on Saturday afternoon, and the contest serves as the debut for new Rebels head coach Pete Golding. Coaching is where the drama lies in this matchup, as former Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin agreed to a seven-year contract with LSU on Nov. 30 after leading Ole Miss to an 11-1 record. He, controversially, won't continue coaching the team he led to its best regular-season record in program history. Instead, Golding will get the call. The Rebels former defensive coordinator earned a permanent promotion before coaching his first game, yet he told his players he "views himself as an interim." Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall is also set to move on as he was hired at Florida. However, unlike Kiffin, Sumrall will coach the Green Wave until their season concludes. 

The Rebels and Green Wave met earlier this season, on Sept. 20 in Oxford, Mississippi, and Rebels controlled the entire game. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss threw for 307 yards and two touchdowns, adding another 114 on the ground. The Green Wave totaled 104 passing yards, completing just 10 of 29 pass attempts. If there's anything to take from that previous matchup, Saturday shouldn't be a contest, unless the coaching change greatly impacts Ole Miss's game plan. 

[College Football Playoff Predictions: Why Oregon, Ole Miss Will Cruise Past First Round]

3. No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 James Madison

Dan Lanning seeks his first College Football Playoff as Oregon's head coach after a quarterfinals exit last year. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

The No. 5 Oregon Ducks are heavy favorites over No. 12 James Madison in a game that will cap the College Football Playoff first-round matchups on Saturday night. After earning the No. 1 seed in the inaugural 12-team CFP format last season, the Ducks will host their first playoff game in Eugene, Oregon. The atmosphere in Autzen Stadium, alone, is enticing. Oregon has only lost twice in its home stadium since head coach Dan Lanning took over in 2022. 

Similar to the Tulane-Ole Miss game, there is coaching movement afoot in this matchup, but both Oregon and JMU will have their staffs coach throughout the CFP. When this season ends, Ducks' offensive coordinator Will Stein is set to take over at Kentucky, while defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi will head to Cal. As for the Dukes, head coach Bob Chesney and offensive coordinator Dean Kennedy are going to UCLA as a tandem package.

James Madison is making its first College Football Playoff appearance. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)

James Madison hangs its hat on defense, ranking No. 2 in the nation, behind just Ohio State in yards allowed per game (247.6). But Oregon's offense is 13th in the nation in yards per game (465.2). The Ducks are hoping to bolster their offense as Lanning expressed optimism about the return of wide receivers Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr., both of whom were hurt late in the season. 

[College Football Playoff Predictions: Why Texas A&M Is Poised To Top Miami In First Round]

2. No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Miami (Fla.)

Mario Cristobal led Miami (Fla.) to its second consecutive 10-win season, and its first CFP appearance. (Matias J. Ocner/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

The No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies are hosting No. 10 Miami (Fla.) on Saturday morning. This is a matchup of two teams that wouldn't have expected to play each other a few weeks ago. The Aggies were on a fast track to a top-four seed and their first appearance in the SEC title game. But No. 13 Texas pulled off an upset, beating the Aggies 27-17, and knocking them out of a first-round bye. As for Miami's journey here, many expected the Hurricanes to be on the outside looking in after they were ranked two spots behind Notre Dame in the penultimate CFP poll without an ACC title game to boost their resume. But after a week of controversy and campaigning, the committee flipped the Hurricanes and the Irish, slotting Miami at 10, setting up this matchup with A&M. 

Both the Aggies and Hurricanes had quarterbacks that were early-season Heisman candidates in Marcel Reed and Carson Beck. But late-season struggles hurt their chances. Beck ultimately had the best quarterback rating in the ACC (165.8). Reed starred in a comeback victory against South Carolina, leading the Aggies as they scored 28 unanswered points.

[Related: Comeback, Chaos and a Cop Confrontation: Texas A&M-South Carolina Had Everything]

1. No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 9 Alabama

Oklahoma edged Alabama 23-21 when they met on Nov. 15th. (Photo by Butch Dill/Getty Images)

The No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide are heading to Norman to face No. 8 Oklahoma. This first-round matchup includes two dark-horse championship contenders. The Crimson Tide are the first three-loss team to qualify for the CFP, doing so because of the respectability of each of those losses in the eyes of the committee. They lost once before to Oklahoma, fell to Florida State and were taken down by No. 3 Georgia in the SEC championship game. They had the sixth-strongest strength of schedule, the highest of any CFP team. It's because of that strenuous slate, though, that they may have a chance to make a surprising run in the CFP. They're battle-tested and ready for any situation that could come their way. 

Oklahoma, on the other hand, is a two-loss team who flew under the radar because of injuries to their star quarterback. In fact, John Mateer, was the Heisman favorite before sustaining a broken thumb in his throwing hand. But after rushing his recovery, returning just two weeks later, Mateer hasn't been the same player. He's completed just 58.6% of passes, averaged fewer than 200 passing yards per game and has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 6-to-7 following his injury. 

His diminished play, however, forced Oklahoma to win with its defense. That unit allowed just 21.1 points per game after Mateer's injury. It's possible Mateer hasn't played at 100 percent health, but now with three weeks in between games, he could return to his early season form. Not everyone is accounting for him as a defining factor, and because of that, Oklahoma could make some noise if with an improved defense and a healthy quarterback.

The regular-season matchup between the Sooners and Crimson Tide came down to the wire with Oklahoma's defense winning the game on a turnover on downs. Despite the loss, Alabama outgained Oklahoma, 406 to 212, so if that correlates more to the result this time around, it would favor the Crimson Tide.

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