There is a lot being said and written about Jim Harbaugh this week, and the word that seems to keep coming up regarding Michigan’s trip to Wisconsin on Saturday is “crossroads.”
It’s easy to understand why the matchup seems pivotal. With a win, the road ahead of the Wolverines and their enigmatic head coach could be a bright one, erasing from memory the team’s recent wobbles like their near-defeat against Army two weeks ago. A College Football Playoff spot would still be very much on the table.
Lose, however, and things begin to get murky. For Harbaugh, his record since taking over as Michigan’s head coach in 2015 would come under even greater scrutiny. He could even wind up on the hot seat, although (as we will see a little later) there are a bevy of reasons why those in the university’s corridors of power may be happy to see him continue.
In truth, this Big Ten matchup at Camp Randall is all about whether Harbaugh has the right to consider his time at Ann Arbor any kind of legitimate success. On paper, it’s hard to argue he’s made a positive impact, having won more games than his predecessors and going a more-than-respectable 10-3 in three of the past four seasons.
“(I) think that he’s probably the most under-appreciated coach in college football,” said FOX Sports college analyst Brady Quinn. “When you look at really what he’s done since he’s got there, (in the) seven years prior to Jim Harbaugh, they (were) averaging six-and-a-half wins a year. They’re averaging 9.5 now.”
There is an overwhelming “but” to the Harbaugh conversation, perpetually hanging over everything: the Big Ten Championship and the looming presence of Ohio State. Harbaugh has made Michigan nationally relevant, but he hasn’t collected any Big Ten hardware and has whiffed in four attempts at toppling the Buckeyes.
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Harbaugh has won a lot of games, but many have been of lesser importance. Against nationally ranked teams, Harbaugh’s Michigan is 8-10. Against top 10 squads, they’re a ghastly 1-9. And against the Buckeyes ... yeah, there’s that goose egg.
“He came back to settle family business, and he hasn’t settled a whole lot,” national columnist Dan Wetzel told the Yahoo! Sports College Podcast. “They’re 2-2 against Michigan State. That’s about all they’ve got, which is better than what they had. But man, Lloyd Carr looks better every year.”
Carr, who was head coach at Michigan from 1995 until his retirement in 2007, won five Big Ten titles, shared the 1997 national championship and compiled a 122-40 record. In terms of winning games, Harbaugh has been far more successful than the men who immediately preceded him, Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke. But as his salary has climbed to $7.5 million per year, the team remains tantalizingly short of where it wants to be.
Except, perhaps, in one key area. MLive this week published a thorough analysis of Harbaugh’s impact on the program since he left the San Francisco 49ers to take over. It’s a complicated tale, because the factors that appeal to the fan base and to Michigan administrators are (as is the case in sports more often than we’d like to believe) somewhat at odds.
“The reality is that he has been a box office smash,” MLive’s Michigan football beat writer Aaron McMann told me in a telephone conversation early Friday morning. “The question I always get asked is this: ‘is Jim Harbaugh on the hot seat?’ And the answer is no — or at least, not as much as people think.
“The administration is happy with what he has done. Michigan is a big brand and the numbers are very positive on the financial side. I wouldn’t say that’s saving him, but it is helping him for sure.”
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According to McMann’s investigation, Michigan’s football revenue has increased to $125 million per the most recent figures, up from $97.1 million in the first year of Harbaugh’s contract. The Wolverines had the highest attendance figures in college football from 2014-17, and the 2018 game against Ohio State was watched by 13.2 million viewers on FOX.
Ultimately though, to keep the loudest and most ardent supporters happy, Harbaugh needs victories in the most important games. This year appeared to show preseason promise when offensive coordinator Josh Gattis was recruited from Alabama. Instead, the Army game — where all that separated them from an embarrassing loss was a missed field goal — raised further concerns.
Harbaugh has the chance to do himself a major favor against Wisconsin, a tough road game where the Wolverines will go in as a 3.5-point underdog.
“This will define which way Michigan’s season goes,” McMann added. “A win puts people back on the bandwagon. If it is a loss, it will be interesting and the fans would grow more frustrated. They will question whether he can win the most important games.
“Our story hasn’t generated any real negativity. Michigan has a very loyal fan base and people like Harbaugh, but they realize he hasn’t done everything they hoped for. That’s why it feels like a crossroads.”
We’ll see where the conversation goes after Saturday. But even with a win, Michigan fans will turn an eye to November 30 ... when the Ohio State Buckeyes come to town.
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