College Basketball

NCAA Tournament odds: Picks for the Final Four games

Updated Apr. 2, 2022 11:10 p.m. ET

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By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

From the underdogs barking in every round of the tournament to watching Coach K.'s greatness for one last run, March has been both mad and magical. 

Duke and North Carolina will play each other for the first time ever in the NCAA Tournament. Kansas is playing in its 16th Final Four! Villanova is on a mission to snag its first title since 2018. One thing I know for sure is that this is the weekend to bet on blue.

So what lies ahead for the last four teams dancing?

How about we do a full-court press and break down each Final Four matchup (with all odds via FOX Bet).

OVERALL RECORD: 30-34-1

Elite Eight Record: 4-0

Final Four record: 0-2

Kansas 81,  Villanova 65

Statistical models like Bart Torvik and Ken Pom love the Villanova Wildcats. Still, those metrics don't consider how enormous it was for the Wildcats to lose senior guard Justin Moore to an Achilles injury late against Houston. Moore was the team’s second-leading scorer (15.0 points per game) and led the team in minutes played. 

Villanova only plays six guys, and senior Caleb Daniels will have to move into the starting lineup. Undeniably, Moore's injury cripples the team’s depth. Outside their top six guys, other players totaled 14 minutes in the last three games combined. Early foul trouble or an early deficit? That could spell doom for the Wildcats. 

Villanova and Kansas are two teams that play two different styles. Villanova is the biggest snail left in the tournament ranking 349th in the country in possession length. On the other side are the Jayhawks. They like to run and rank 40th in possession length. 

The Wildcats have been riding Jermaine Samuels’ strong inside-play all tourney long. He went 16-10 against Houston, scored 22 points against Michigan and his assortment of moves in the paint have been impressive. But the Jayhawks have significant size and depth inside, and against Kansas, Samuels is facing a three-headed monster. KU has got David McCormack who ranks fourth in the country in offensive rebounding, power forward Jalen Wilson and then backup center Mitch Lightfoot. Samuels has his work cut out for him.

Another problem for Villanova will be Kansas' defensive length on the wing. And the best pure scorer in the game, the Jayhawks' sixth man Remy Martin, could take advantage of Villanova's tired legs in transition. While Villanova's defense gave problems to Michigan and Houston, those two teams weren't used to seeing tenacious half-court defenses. Kansas, on the other hand, played seven games against Top 5 defenses, going 6-1 against Iowa State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.

Despite the problems they'll have against Kansas, Villanova does have a couple of huge advantages. Coach Jay Wright gives the Wildcats an edge as he has won four of five contests against Jayhawks' coach Bill Self. They've also got an advantage in free throw shooting. The Wildcats rank first in the country in that category, and Kansas — a squad that went a dismal 13-of-26 against Miami — struggles from the FT line. 

My problem betting on the spread in this game comes down to free throws, so I’ll take the Jayhawks on the moneyline and parlay it with the Blue Devils to win straight up.

PICK: Duke and Kansas moneyline parlay +130 at FOX Bet (Loss)

North Carolina 81, Duke 77

It’s wild that the two teams who make up the best rivalry in college basketball have never faced off in the NCAA Tournament, but here we are! However, these enemies have seen each other a couple of times already this season.

In the first meeting, Duke won easily as Blue Devil A.J. Griffin scored 27 points in a 20-point blowout of the Tar Heels. Then, in the rematch at Cameron, the game was close until the final few minutes. That's when the young Duke team fell apart under the weight of Coach K.’s last home game and lost. 

In that second meeting, point guard Jeremy Roach — arguably Duke's best player in the tournament — came off the bench instead of starting. Also in that game, A.J. Griffin only attempted five shots. His last showing against UNC wasn't his best basketball, but Griffin does have length and inside-outside ability that will be a tough matchup for the Tar Heels whose only top-notch wing defender is Rechon "Leaky" Black, a first-team, All-ACC Defense selection. 

According to the stats, though, it looks like UNC might still have the advantage. In a sample size of six games, some numbers show that the Tar Heels are the best team in college basketball in March. Guards R.J. Davis and Caleb Love, wing player Brady Manek and then the inside force of Armando Bacot all make UNC's offense unstoppable.

In the teams' first meeting, Bacot got in foul trouble, and the Tar Heels fell into a massive hole. He rebounded in the second meeting and scored 23 points. Watching him face off with emerging talent Mark Williams — a player who's averaging 14.5 ppg and four blocks per game in the tourney — will be a lot of fun. 

Then there's Love who has a fantastic story. He was left off the three All-ACC teams but then ended up saving the Tar Heels with his 30 points against UCLA in the Sweet 16. 

Even though the Tar Heels have made at least 10 3-pointers in every tournament game except against Saint Peter's, they will look to trade 3-pointers for 2s since Duke has scored 52% of their points in the tournament in the paint. Duke can over-commit to a 3-point defense with Williams sitting on the back line, which will be crucial to watch.

There’s so much firepower in this game, with six potential first-round picks on the floor. The offensive ceiling has had this total bet up from 149.5 to 151. In a rivalry game, I am inclined to take the under. Toss in the game being played in the massive Superdome in New Orleans which is a tough place to shoot, and I'd bet the under if I played the total.

For now, give me the Blue Devils to win straight up.

PICK: Duke (-200 moneyline at FOX Bet) to win straight up (Loss)

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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College Basketball

CBK - Villanova Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks - 04/02/2022

CBK - North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils - 04/03/2022

Duke Blue Devils

North Carolina Tar Heels

Armando Bacot

Jermaine Samuels

David McCormack

Mitch Lightfoot

Jeremy Roach

Brady Manek

Jason McIntyre