Falcons vs. Commanders Prediction, Odds, Picks - Oct 15

Published Oct. 11, 2023 1:07 p.m. ET

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The Washington Commanders (2-3) will be attempting to snap a three-game losing run against the Atlanta Falcons (3-2). The Falcons are slim favorites (-2.5). The matchup has an over/under of 42.5 points.

Falcons vs. Commanders Odds & Betting Lines

Falcons vs. Commanders Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Atlanta (-2.5)
  
• Pick OU: Over (42.5)
  
• Prediction: Atlanta 31 - Washington 14

How to Watch Atlanta vs. Washington

• Game Date: Sunday, October 15, 2023
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
• Location: Atlanta, Georgia
• TV: Watch on CBS

Falcons vs. Commanders Recent Matchups

• Atlanta holds a 4-1 record against Washington in their last five matchups.
• In their last five head-to-head matchups, Atlanta has scored 127 points against Washington, while allowing only 95 points.

Atlanta Betting Info

• Atlanta has one win against the spread in five games this year.
• The Falcons have covered the spread once this season (1-2 ATS) when playing as at least 2.5-point favorites.
• Atlanta's games this year have hit the over one time in five opportunities (20%).
• The Falcons have not yet lost a game they were the moneyline favorite, going 3-0 in those matchups this season.
• Atlanta has played as a moneyline favorite of -148 or shorter in just two games this season, and it won both.
• The Falcons have a 59.7% chance to win this matchup, based on the implied probability of the moneyline.

Falcons Stats

Atlanta's Key Players

Offense

• Desmond Ridder has 1,073 passing yards through five games this year, averaging 214.6 per game with a 65.4% completion percentage and four touchdowns against three interceptions.
• To go along with his passing stats, Ridder also has 57 rushing yards (third on the Falcons), with two rushing touchdowns.
• Bijan Robinson has racked up 364 rushing yards (eighth in the NFL) without a rushing TD (72.8 yards per game through five games). His 5.4 yards per attempt rank sixth in the NFL.
• He has hauled in 21 passes (on 24 targets) for 146 receiving yards with two touchdowns. He's averaging 29.2 receiving yards and 4.2 catches per game.
• Tyler Allgeier has 191 rushing yards with two touchdowns (38.2 yards per game through five games).
• Drake London averages 3.4 receptions and 40.8 yards per game, and has 204 total receiving yards and 17 catches. He's gotten 31 total targets, and has caught two touchdown passes.

Defense

• On defense, Jessie Bates III has 35 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and three interceptions in 2023. His tackle total leads the Falcons.
• Kaden Elliss has 1.0 sack (second on the Falcons) to go with 2.0 TFL and 35 tackles.
• Richie Grant has collected 31 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and one pass defended.
• This season, David Onyemata has 18 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and 1.5 sacks.

Washington Betting Info

• Washington has covered the spread two times in five games with a set number.
• The Commanders have been underdogs by 2.5 points or more three times this year and have covered the spread twice.
• Games involving Washington have hit the over on three occasions this year.
• The Commanders have been underdogs in three games this season and won one (33.3%) of those contests.
• Washington has entered three games this season as the underdog by +124 or more and is 1-2 in those contests.
• The implied probability of a win by the Commanders based on the moneyline is 44.6%.

Commanders Stats

Washington's Key Players

Offense

• Sam Howell is averaging 7.1 passing yards per attempt (14th in the NFL) and 269.8 yards per game this year, completing 68.6% of his passes on the way to 1,349 total yards (sixth in the NFL), six touchdowns and six interceptions through five games.
• Howell has also rushed for one touchdown and 101 yards (second on the Commanders).
• Brian Robinson Jr. has scored three rushing touchdowns, while totaling 271 rushing yards (4.0 per carry and 54.2 per game).
• Brian Robinson Jr. has added nine receptions (1.8 per game) for 88 yards (17.6 per game) with one receiving touchdown. He's been targeted 11 times in the passing attack.
• In five games played this season, Curtis Samuel has 23 catches (4.6 receptions per game on 5.4 targets per game) for 243 yards and one receiving touchdown.
• Terry McLaurin has been targeted 31 times, resulting in 25 catches for 261 yards .

Defense

• Montez Sweat has 4.5 sacks (first on the Commanders and 10th in the NFL) to go with 6.0 TFL and 19 tackles over five games in 2023.
• Kamren Curl has 44 tackles, 3.0 TFL, one sack, and one pass defended.
• Cody Barton has 45 tackles in the 2023 season.
• Da'Ron Payne has 15 tackles, 5.0 TFL, one sack, and three passes defended.

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