Buccaneers vs. Falcons 2025 Prediction, Odds, Picks - Dec 11

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) are the favorites -- expected to win by at least a field goal, but less than a touchdown (currently -4.5) -- versus the Atlanta Falcons (4-9) in a battle of two division rivals. The total for this one is set at 45.5 points.

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Buccaneers vs. Falcons Odds & Betting Lines

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Buccaneers vs. Falcons Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Buccaneers (-4.5)
  
• Pick OU: Over (45.5)
  
• Prediction: Buccaneers 28 - Falcons 18

How to Watch Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta

• Game date: Thursday, December 11, 2025
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Venue: Raymond James Stadium
• Location: Tampa, Florida
• TV: Amazon Prime Video
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Recent Matchups

• Atlanta has a 3-2 record against Tampa Bay in their last five matchups.
• In their last five head-to-head matchups, Atlanta has tallied 128 points versus Tampa Bay, while surrendering only 121 points.

Tampa Bay Betting Info

• Tampa Bay is 5-8-0 against the spread this season.
• The Buccaneers have been favored by 4.5 points or more three times this season, and covered the spread in one of those games.
• Tampa Bay games this year have hit the over on seven of 13 set point totals (53.8%).
• The Buccaneers have won 71.4% of the time they have played as moneyline favorites (5-2).
• The implied probability for this matchup, considering the moneyline, gives the Buccaneers a 69.7% chance to win.

Buccaneers Stats

Tampa Bay's Key Players

Offense

• Baker Mayfield has thrown for 2,722 yards, 20 touchdowns (10th in the NFL) and six interceptions this year. He is averaging 209.4 yards per game and 6.5 per attempt, while completing 61.6% of his attempts.
• He has added 285 rushing yards (21.9 per game) and one touchdown on the ground.
• Emeka Egbuka's 806 receiving yards this season have come from 110 targets and 54 receptions. He's averaging 62.0 receiving yards and 4.2 catches per game, with six receiving touchdowns.
• Rachaad White has 474 rushing yards with four touchdowns (36.5 yards per game across 13 games).
• White has 33 receptions on 38 targets for 172 yards, though he has not scored a touchdown in the passing game.
• Bucky Irving has rushed for 353 yards with one touchdown (58.8 yards per game across six games).
• He has added 23 catches (on 24 targets) for 239 receiving yards with three touchdowns. He's averaging 39.8 receiving yards and 3.8 receptions per game.

Defense

• On defense, Tykee Smith has 90 tackles, 6.0 TFL, two sacks, and one interception in 2025.
• Lavonte David has 89 tackles, 7.0 TFL, 2.5 sacks, and one interception this season. He's second on the Buccaneers in tackles.
• SirVocea Dennis has put up 83 tackles, 7.0 TFL, two sacks, and one interception this year. He's third on the Buccaneers in tackles.
• This season, Antoine Winfield Jr. has 68 tackles, 4.0 TFL, one sack, and two interceptions.

Atlanta Betting Info

• Atlanta is 6-7-0 against the spread this year.
• The Falcons are 3-1 ATS when underdogs by 4.5 points or more this season.
• Games involving Atlanta have hit the over on six occasions this season.
• This season, the Falcons have been the underdog eight times and won three of those games.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 34.5% chance of a victory for the Falcons.

Falcons Stats

Atlanta's Key Players

Offense

• This year in 13 games, Bijan Robinson has churned out 1,081 rushing yards (leading the Falcons and fourth in the NFL) and scored five rushing touchdowns. He averages 83.2 yards per game and 5.0 per carry (seventh in the NFL).
• On top of his impact on the ground, Robinson has caught 56 passes (on 70 targets) for 602 yards (third on the Falcons), with two receiving touchdowns. He's averaging 46.3 yards per game.
• Drake London has put together a 2025 campaign that includes 60 catches for 810 yards and six receiving touchdowns over nine games played. He has been on the receiving end of 94 targets and is averaging 6.7 receptions per game.
• Tyler Allgeier is averaging 29.1 rushing yards per game this season (378 total yards), while scoring eight rushing touchdowns.
• Kyle Pitts has been targeted 85 times, resulting in 62 catches for 631 yards .

Defense

• Kaden Elliss has amassed 3.5 sacks (fifth on the Falcons) to go with 9.0 TFL, 88 tackles, and one interception over 13 games in 2025.
• DeAundre Alford has 2.0 sacks in addition to his 4.0 TFL, 47 tackles, and one interception through 11 games.
• Jessie Bates III has recorded 1.0 TFL, 77 tackles, and two interceptions in the 2025 campaign.
• Xavier Watts has intercepted three passes to go with 68 tackles and seven passes defended.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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