Twins vs. Red Sox Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 28

Simeon Woods Richardson takes the mound for the Minnesota Twins on Monday against Ceddanne Rafaela and the Boston Red Sox. First pitch is at 7:40 p.m. ET for this first game in a three-game series. The Twins are favored in this one, at -111, while the underdog Red Sox have -109 odds to play spoiler. Boston is the favorite on the run line (-1.5). The over/under for the game is listed at 9 runs.

Take a look at everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Twins-Red Sox game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Twins vs. Red Sox Game Information & Odds

• When: Monday, July 28, 2025 at 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where: Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota
• How to watch on TV: MNNT and NESN

Twins vs. Red Sox Prediction

• Score Prediction: Twins 5, Red Sox 4
• Total Prediction: Under 9 runs
• Win Probabilities: Twins 50%, Red Sox 50%

Twins vs. Red Sox Betting Insights

• This season, the Twins have won 35 out of the 68 games, or 51.5%, in which they've been favored.
• Minnesota has a record of 35-32, a 52.2% win rate, when favored by -111 or more by sportsbooks this season.
• The Twins have a 52.6% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• The Red Sox have won in 17, or 43.6%, of the 39 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
• Boston has a mark of 17-21 in contests where oddsmakers favor it by -109 or worse on the moneyline.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Red Sox have a 52.2% chance of pulling out a win.

Twins Recent Betting Performance

• The Twins played as the moneyline favorite for seven of their last 10 games, and finished 2-5 in those matchups.
• In their last 10 outings -- all had a set run total -- the Twins and their opponents combined to hit the over on the total three times.
• The Twins' ATS record is 3-7-0 over their past 10 games.

Twins Recent Stats

Twins Player Insights

• Byron Buxton paces the Twins in home runs (23), runs batted in (59) and has accumulated a team-best batting average of .282.
• Buxton ranks 13th in homers and 36th in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
• Trevor Larnach has 15 doubles, a triple, 13 home runs and 34 walks while batting .244.
• Among all major league hitters, Larnach ranks 91st in homers and 97th in RBI.
• Ty France has 19 doubles, six home runs and 18 walks while batting .254.
• Carlos Correa is batting .266 with 19 doubles, seven home runs and 26 walks.
• Correa has recorded at least one hit in four straight games. In his last five games he is batting .250 with a double and three walks.

Twins Team Props

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

• In six games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Red Sox have a record of 2-4.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Red Sox and their opponents are 2-8-0 when it comes to hitting the over.
• The Red Sox have won six of their last 10 games against the spread.

Red Sox Recent Stats

Red Sox Player Insights

• Jarren Duran is batting .259 with 26 doubles, 12 triples, nine home runs and 36 walks.
• Duran ranks 148th in homers and 51st in RBI among all batters in the big leagues.
• Duran carries a three-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last five games he is hitting .300 with a double, two triples, a home run, two walks and five RBIs.
• Rafaela's .265 batting average is a team-high mark.
• Rafaela is currently 75th in homers and 75th in RBI in the big leagues.
• Wilyer Abreu leads the Red Sox with 20 long balls.
• Trevor Story has driven in a team-high 61 runs batted in.

Red Sox Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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