Padres vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 23

Kyle Stowers and the Miami Marlins hit the field on Wednesday at loanDepot park against Dylan Cease, who is projected to start for the San Diego Padres. First pitch will be at 12:10 p.m. ET. The Padres are favored in this one, at -149, while the underdog Marlins have +124 odds to play spoiler. San Diego (-1.5) is favored on the run line. The total is 8 runs for this matchup (with -103 odds to hit the over and -123 odds to go under).

Take a look at everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Padres-Marlins game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Padres vs. Marlins Game Information & Odds

• When: Wednesday, July 23, 2025 at 12:10 p.m. ET
• Where: loanDepot park in Miami, Florida
• How to watch on TV: FDSFL and SDPA

Padres vs. Marlins Prediction

• Score Prediction: Marlins 6, Padres 5
• Total Prediction: Over 8 runs
• Win Probabilities: Padres 51%, Marlins 49%

Padres vs. Marlins Betting Insights

• The Padres have won 31, or 59.6%, of the 52 games they've played as favorites this season.
• This season San Diego has won 17 of its 26 games, or 65.4%, when favored by at least -149 on the moneyline.
• The Padres have a 59.8% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
• The Marlins have been victorious in 41, or 47.1%, of the 87 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
• This season, Miami has come away with a win 26 times in 53 chances when named as an underdog of at least +124 or longer on the moneyline.
• The Marlins have an implied victory probability of 44.6% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Padres Recent Betting Performance

• The Padres went 2-2 across the four games they were a moneyline favorite in their last 10 matchups.
• In their last 10 outings (all 10 of them had set totals), the Padres and their opponents combined to hit the over four times.
• The Padres have gone 8-2-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Padres Recent Stats

Padres Player Insights

• Manny Machado has gone yard 18 times in the 2025 campaign while driving in 60 runs, both totals that lead the Padres.
• Machado ranks 30th in homers and 22nd in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. is batting .262 with 14 doubles, two triples, 16 home runs and 55 walks.
• Of all MLB hitters, Tatis ranks 47th in home runs and 92nd in RBI.
• Luis Arraez leads the Padres with a team-high batting average of .286.
• Arraez has at least one base hit in five games in a row. In his last five games he is batting .400 with a double, a walk and two RBIs.
• Xander Bogaerts is batting .268 with 22 doubles, six home runs and 43 walks.
• Bogaerts has recorded at least one hit in three games in a row. In his last five games he is hitting .300 with three doubles, a home run, two walks and four RBIs.

Padres Team Props

Marlins Recent Betting Performance

• The Marlins have played as underdogs in eight of their past 10 games and have gone 4-4 in those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Marlins and their opponents have failed to hit the over seven times.
• The Marlins are 4-6-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Marlins Recent Stats

Marlins Player Insights

• Stowers leads the Marlins with 22 home runs and 61 runs batted in, while posting a team-high batting average of .295.
• Stowers ranks 14th in homers and 21st in RBI among all batters in the big leagues.
• Otto Lopez has 11 doubles, 11 home runs and 33 walks while batting .252.
• Lopez is 113th in homers and 55th in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
• Xavier Edwards is batting .291 with 15 doubles, two triples, a home run and 33 walks.
• Agustin Ramirez has 22 doubles, a triple, 14 home runs and 19 walks while hitting .244.

Marlins Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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