Mets vs. Reds Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 18

Updated Jul. 18, 2025 7:00 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The New York Mets will send a hot-hitting Pete Alonso to the plate against the Cincinnati Reds and Elly De La Cruz, who has been on a tear as of late, when the clubs square off on Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Mets are -157 moneyline favorites in this matchup against the Reds (+132). New York is a 1.5-run favorite (at +139 odds). The total is 7.5 runs for the matchup (with -106 odds to go over and -114 odds on the under).

Here is everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Mets-Reds game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Mets vs. Reds Game Information & Odds

When: Friday, July 18, 2025 at 7:10 p.m. ET
Where: Citi Field in Queens, New York
How to watch on TV: SNY and FDSOH

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Mets	-157	+132	7.5	-106	-114	-1.5	+139	-166

Mets vs. Reds Prediction

Score Prediction: Mets 5, Reds 4
Total Prediction: Over 7.5 runs
Win Probabilities: Mets 57%, Reds 43%

Mets vs. Reds Betting Insights

The Mets have entered the game as favorites 68 times this season and won 44, or 64.7%, of those games.
New York has a record of 21-9, a 70% win rate, when favored by -157 or more by oddsmakers this season.
The moneyline for this contest implies a 61.1% chance of a victory for the Mets.
The Reds have been underdogs in 52 games this season and have come away with the win 27 times (51.9%) in those contests.
Cincinnati has a win-loss record of 9-10 when favored by +132 or worse by sportsbooks this year.
Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Reds have a 43.1% chance of pulling out a win.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

The Mets have a 5-2 record from the seven games they were moneyline favorites over their last 10 matchups.
In their last 10 outings, the Mets and their opponents combined to go over the run total five times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
The Mets' ATS record is 3-7-0 over their past 10 games.

Mets Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	6-4
Runs Per Game	4.9
HR	13
ERA	4.09
K/9	7.7

Mets Player Insights

Juan Soto has launched a team-best 23 home runs.
Among all MLB hitters, Soto is 71st in batting average, fourth in on-base percentage, and 17th in slugging.
Alonso has 77 runs batted in while hitting .280. Both are team-highs.
Alonso is 12th in home runs and fifth in RBI among all major league hitters this year.
Francisco Lindor is batting .260 with 18 doubles, 19 home runs and 33 walks.
Brandon Nimmo is batting .259 with 17 doubles, 18 home runs and 29 walks.

Mets Team Props

	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Pete Alonso	0.5 (-185)	1.5 (+130)	-	0.5 (+145)
Mark Vientos	0.5 (-215)	1.5 (+130)	-	0.5 (+200)
Francisco Lindor	0.5 (-245)	1.5 (+115)	-	0.5 (+175)
Sean Manaea	-	-	-	-
Tyrone Taylor	0.5 (-155)	-	-	0.5 (+240)

Reds Recent Betting Performance

In three games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Reds have a record of 1-2.
The Reds and their opponents have combined to hit the over two times in their last 10 games with a total.
The Reds have a record of 4-6-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Reds Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	5-5
Runs Per Game	3.7
HR	9
ERA	3.78
K/9	8.9

Reds Player Insights

De La Cruz paces the Reds in home runs (18), runs batted in (63) and has posted a team-best batting average of .284.
Among all hitters in MLB, De La Cruz's home run total is 26th and his RBI tally is 14th.
De La Cruz has collected a hit in five games in a row. In his last five games he is batting .471 with three doubles, a triple, four walks and three RBIs.
TJ Friedl is hitting .276 with 15 doubles, two triples, nine home runs and 46 walks.
Friedl is 138th overall in home runs and 146th in RBI this year.
Spencer Steer has 15 doubles, a triple, 11 home runs and 24 walks while hitting .251.
Matt McLain is hitting .210 with 10 doubles, 10 home runs and 35 walks.