Mariners vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Picks - July 4

Cal Raleigh and the Seattle Mariners will see Bailey Falter on the hill for the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday at 4:10 p.m. ET. The favored Mariners have -187 moneyline odds to win against the underdog Pirates, who are listed at +156. Seattle is the run-line favorite (-1.5). The over/under is 7 runs for this game (with -125 odds on the over and +105 odds to go under).

Here is everything you need from a betting perspective on the Mariners-Pirates game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Mariners vs. Pirates Game Information & Odds

• When: Friday, July 4, 2025 at 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where: T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington
• How to watch on TV: ROOT Sports NW and SportsNet PT

Mariners vs. Pirates Prediction

• Score Prediction: Mariners 4, Pirates 3
• Total Prediction: Over 7 runs
• Win Probabilities: Mariners 53%, Pirates 47%

Mariners vs. Pirates Betting Insights

• This season, the Mariners have been favored 56 times and won 30, or 53.6%, of those games.
• Seattle is 3-3 this season when entering a game favored by -187 or more on the moneyline.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Mariners have a 65.2% chance to win.
• The Pirates have been underdogs in 60 games this season and have come away with the win 25 times (41.7%) in those contests.
• Pittsburgh has a win-loss record of 5-12 when favored by +156 or worse by sportsbooks this year.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Pirates have a 39.1% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Mariners Recent Betting Performance

• The Mariners went 4-3 over the seven games they were a moneyline favorite in their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 outings -- all had a set run total -- the Mariners and their opponents combined to go over the total six times.
• The Mariners' ATS record is 2-8-0 over their past 10 games.

Mariners Recent Stats

Mariners Player Insights

• Raleigh has gone yard 33 times in the 2025 campaign while knocking in 71 runs, both totals that lead the Mariners.
• In all of the majors, Raleigh ranks first in homers and second in RBI.
• Julio Rodriguez is batting .252 with 12 doubles, three triples, 11 home runs and 23 walks.
• Rodriguez ranks 78th in homers in baseball, and 64th in RBI.
• Randy Arozarena is hitting .248 with 20 doubles, a triple, 12 home runs and 41 walks.
• J.P. Crawford's .285 batting average leads his team.
• Crawford has recorded at least one hit in five straight games. During his last five outings he is hitting .364 with a double and an RBI.

Mariners Team Props

Pirates Recent Betting Performance

• The Pirates have played as underdogs in six of their past 10 games and won five of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Pirates and their opponents have failed to hit the over four times.
• The Pirates have a record of 7-3-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Pirates Recent Stats

Pirates Player Insights

• Oneil Cruz has swatted a team-high 15 home runs.
• Among all hitters in the majors, Cruz ranks 35th in homers and 105th in RBI.
• Bryan Reynolds has been productive as he leads his team with 45 RBI.
• Reynolds ranks 96th overall in homers and 54th in RBI this season.
• Andrew McCutchen paces the Pirates with a team-high batting average of .269.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa is hitting .277 with 10 doubles, two triples, a home run and 12 walks.

Pirates Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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