Braves vs. Phillies NLDS Game 4 Prediction, Odds, Picks - October 12

Updated Oct. 12, 2023 7:00 p.m. ET

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The Atlanta Braves will visit the Philadelphia Phillies in the fourth game of the NLDS on Thursday at 8:07 PM ET, live on TBS from Citizens Bank Park. The Braves hope to force a Game 5 as they enter the matchup trailing in the series 2-1. Bookmakers list the Braves as -151 moneyline favorites, while giving the underdog Phillies +128 moneyline odds to win. Atlanta (-1.5) is the favorite on the run line. An 8.5-run over/under has been listed for the game.

The probable pitchers are Spencer Strider (20-5, 3.86 ERA) for the Braves against Ranger Suarez (4-6, 4.18 ERA) for the Phillies.

Here is everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Braves-Phillies game, from the point spread, moneyline, Over/Under and expert picks.

Braves vs. Phillies Game Information & Odds

• When: Thursday, October 12, 2023 at 8:07 PM ET
• Where: Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• How to Watch on TV: TBS

Braves vs. Phillies Prediction

• Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Braves 4
• Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Braves 51%, Phillies 49%

Braves vs. Phillies Betting Insights

• The Braves have entered the game as favorites 151 times this season and won 97, or 64.2%, of those games.
• This season Atlanta has won 73 of its 106 games, or 68.9%, when favored by at least -151 on the moneyline.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 60.2% chance of a victory for the Braves.
• The Phillies have come away with 24 wins in the 52 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
• This year, Philadelphia has won four of 14 games when listed as at least +128 or worse on the moneyline.
• The Phillies have an implied victory probability of 43.9% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Braves Recent Betting Performance

• The Braves were the moneyline favorite for nine of their last 10 games, and finished 6-3 in those matchups.
• Over their last 10 matchups -- all had a set run total -- the Braves and their opponents combined to hit the over on the total seven times.
• The Braves are 3-7-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Braves Recent Stats

Braves Player Insights

• Ronald Acuna Jr. has racked up a team-high batting average of .337.
• In all of MLB, Acuna is fifth in home runs and eighth in RBI.
• Matt Olson's 54 home runs and 139 runs batted in both pace his team.
• Including all MLB hitters, Olson ranks first in home runs and first in RBI.
• Olson has 11 games in a row with at least one hit. In his last 10 games he is batting .353 with a double, a home run, three walks and seven RBI.
• Ozzie Albies is batting .280 with 30 doubles, five triples, 33 home runs and 46 walks.
• Albies has at least one base hit in six games in a row. During his last 10 games he is hitting .390 with two doubles, a triple, a home run, six walks and six RBI.
• Austin Riley is batting .281 with 32 doubles, three triples, 37 home runs and 59 walks.
• Riley brings a five-game streak with at least one hit into this one. In his last five games he is batting .348 with two doubles, a home run and three RBI.

Braves Team Props

Learn more about this Braves vs. Phillies matchup on Fox Sports.

Phillies Recent Betting Performance

• The Phillies have played as underdogs in four of their past 10 games and won two of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Phillies and their opponents are 5-4-1 when it comes to hitting the over.
• The Phillies have a record of 6-4-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Phillies Recent Stats

Phillies Player Insights

• Kyle Schwarber has a team-best 47 home runs.
• Schwarber is second in homers and 11th in RBI among all batters in the majors.
• Trea Turner has 35 doubles, five triples, 26 home runs and 45 walks while hitting .266.
• Among all MLB batters, Turner ranks 38th in homers and 66th in RBI.
• Alec Bohm is hitting .274 with 31 doubles, 20 home runs and 42 walks.
• Bryce Harper leads the Phillies with a team-high batting average of .293.

Phillies Team Props

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