Miami (FL) vs. Florida State Prediction, Odds, Picks - October 4, 2025

Updated Oct. 4, 2025 3:04 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The No. 3 Miami Hurricanes (4-0) take college football's eighth-ranked rushing defense into a matchup with the No. 18 Florida State Seminoles (3-1), who have the No. 2 rushing attack, on Saturday, October 4, 2025. The Hurricanes are 4-point favorites. The contest has a 54.5-point over/under.

The Hurricanes won versus the Florida Gators in their last game, 26-7. Last time around, the Seminoles fell to the Virginia Cavaliers, with 46-38 being the final score.

Keep up with college football all season on FOX Sports.

Can Miami get their third ranked win of the season vs. Florida State? 👀 Joel Klatt Show

Joel Klatt previewed the Miami Hurricanes vs. Florida State Seminoles. He questioned if Miami can get their third ranked win in an ACC rival game. Joel explained how the bye week could benefit Miami going into this rivalry game. He also previewed the Wisconsin Badgers heading to Ann Arbor to take on the Michigan Wolverines.

Miami (FL) vs. Florida State Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, October 4, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida
TV: ABC
Live Box Score on FOX Sports

Miami (FL) vs Florida State Betting Information updated as of October 4, 2025, 2:45 p.m. ET.
Favorite	Spread (Odds)	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Moneyline	Under Moneyline
Miami (FL)	-4 (-112)	-188	+158	54.5	-110	-110

Miami (FL) vs. Florida State Prediction

Pick ATS: Florida State (+4)
Pick OU: Over (54.5)
Prediction: Miami (FL) 30, Florida State 29

Predictions are made by the Data Skrive betting model.

Learn more about the Miami Hurricanes vs. the Florida State Seminoles game on FOX Sports!

Miami (FL) vs. Florida State Betting Insights

Based on the spread and over/under, the implied score for the matchup is Hurricanes 29, Seminoles 25.
The Hurricanes have a 65.3% chance to claim victory in this contest based on the moneyline's implied probability. The Seminoles hold a 38.8% implied probability.
Miami (FL) is 3-1-0 ATS this season.
Florida State has a record of 2-1-0 against the spread this year.

Miami (FL) vs. Florida State: Head-to-Head

In their past four head-to-head matchups, Florida State has beaten Miami (FL) three times.
The two teams have never hit the over on the total while sharing a split 2-2 record in their games against the spread.
In their last four head-to-head matchups, Florida State has tallied 117 points versus Miami (FL), while allowing only 87 points.

Miami (FL) vs. Florida State: 2025 Stats Comparison

	Miami (FL)	Florida State
Off. Points per Game (Rank)	36.8 (51)	53 (9)
Def. Points per Game (Rank)	11.5 (6)	19 (34)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank)	3 (18)	6 (74)
Turnovers Forced (Rank)	6 (51)	6 (51)

Miami (FL) 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Mark Fletcher	RB	388 YDS / 5 TD / 97 YPG / 5.9 YPC 4 REC / 45 REC YDS / 0 REC TD / 11.3 REC YPG
Carson Beck	QB	972 YDS (72.6%) / 7 TD / 3 INT 19 RUSH YDS / 1 RUSH TD / 6.3 RUSH YPG
CharMar Brown	RB	191 YDS / 4 TD / 47.8 YPG / 3.9 YPC 8 REC / 75 REC YDS / 1 REC TD / 18.8 REC YPG
CJ Daniels	WR	18 REC / 191 YDS / 3 TD / 47.8 YPG
Rueben Bain Jr.	DL	19 TKL / 1 TFL / 2 SACK / 1 INT
Jakobe Thomas	DB	13 TKL / 2 TFL / 1 SACK
Akheem Mesidor	DL	14 TKL / 1 TFL / 2.5 SACK
Mohamed Toure	LB	14 TKL / 1 TFL / 1 SACK

Florida State 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Thomas Castellanos	QB	848 YDS (64.3%) / 4 TD / 3 INT 217 RUSH YDS / 4 RUSH TD / 54.3 RUSH YPG
Gavin Sawchuk	RB	234 YDS / 6 TD / 58.5 YPG / 5.6 YPC 3 REC / 60 REC YDS / 1 REC TD / 20 REC YPG
Duce Robinson	WR	17 REC / 346 YDS / 3 TD / 86.5 YPG
Micahi Danzy	WR	7 REC / 168 YDS / 0 TD / 42 YPG
Earl Little II	DB	28 TKL / 0 TFL / 1 INT / 2 PD
Elijah Herring	LB	15 TKL / 1 TFL / 1 SACK / 1 INT
Ja'Bril Rawls	DB	19 TKL / 1 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD
Ashlynd Barker	DB	14 TKL / 2 TFL / 2 SACK