Louisville vs. Virginia Prediction, Odds, Picks - October 4, 2025

Updated Oct. 4, 2025 3:04 p.m. ET

FOX Sports

The Louisville Cardinals (4-0) and the 14th-ranked passing defense will host the No. 24 Virginia Cavaliers (4-1) and the 22nd-ranked passing attack on Saturday, October 4, 2025. The Cavaliers are 6.5-point underdogs. The over/under is 60.5.

The Cardinals won against the Pittsburgh Panthers in their last game, 34-27. Last time out, the Cavaliers defeated the Florida State Seminoles, with 46-38 being the final score.

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Louisville vs. Virginia Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, October 4, 2025 at 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky
TV: ESPN2
Live Box Score on FOX Sports

Louisville vs Virginia Betting Information updated as of October 4, 2025, 2:45 p.m. ET.
Favorite	Spread (Odds)	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Moneyline	Under Moneyline
Louisville	-6.5 (-113)	-247	+201	60.5	-110	-110

Louisville vs. Virginia Prediction

Pick ATS: Louisville (-6.5)
Pick OU: Over (60.5)
Prediction: Louisville 34, Virginia 27

Predictions are made by the Data Skrive betting model.

Learn more about the Louisville Cardinals vs. the Virginia Cavaliers game on FOX Sports!

Louisville vs. Virginia Betting Insights

Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the matchup is Cardinals 34, Cavaliers 27.
The Cardinals have a 71.2% chance to claim victory in this contest based on the moneyline's implied probability. The Cavaliers hold a 33.2% implied probability.
Louisville has a record of 1-3-0 against the spread this season.
Virginia is 4-1-0 ATS this year.

Louisville vs. Virginia: Head-to-Head

Over their last four meetings, Louisville has tallied three wins versus Virginia.
The Cavaliers have a 3-1 record ATS in those games, while the two teams have gone over the total on two occasions.
Virginia has been outscored by 27 points in its last four tilts versus Louisville.

Louisville vs. Virginia: 2025 Stats Comparison

	Louisville	Virginia
Off. Points per Game (Rank)	38.3 (41)	45.6 (6)
Def. Points per Game (Rank)	18.8 (31)	23.2 (82)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank)	6 (74)	5 (53)
Turnovers Forced (Rank)	9 (10)	5 (71)

Louisville 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Miller Moss	QB	1,029 YDS (65.6%) / 5 TD / 3 INT -40 RUSH YDS / 2 RUSH TD / -10 RUSH YPG
Isaac Brown	RB	268 YDS / 3 TD / 67 YPG / 8.1 YPC 7 REC / 30 REC YDS / 0 REC TD / 15 REC YPG
Chris Bell	WR	23 REC / 332 YDS / 2 TD / 83 YPG
Caullin Lacy	WR	22 REC / 266 YDS / 0 TD / 66.5 YPG
Clev Lubin	DL	21 TKL / 2 TFL / 3.5 SACK
TJ Quinn	LB	21 TKL / 1 TFL / 1 SACK / 2 INT
Antonio Watts	LB	13 TKL / 1 TFL / 1.5 SACK / 2 INT
D'Angelo Hutchinson	DB	20 TKL / 1 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD

Virginia 2025 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Chandler Morris	QB	1,279 YDS (71.6%) / 10 TD / 4 INT 169 RUSH YDS / 4 RUSH TD / 33.8 RUSH YPG
J'mari Taylor	RB	397 YDS / 7 TD / 79.4 YPG / 5.3 YPC 11 REC / 60 REC YDS / 0 REC TD / 12 REC YPG
Trell Harris	WR	21 REC / 366 YDS / 3 TD / 73.2 YPG
Harrison Waylee	RB	229 YDS / 4 TD / 57.3 YPG / 7.6 YPC
Daniel Rickert	DL	12 TKL / 3 TFL / 3.5 SACK
Devin Neal	DB	24 TKL / 1 TFL / 0.5 SACK
Ethan Minter	DB	19 TKL / 2 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD
Mitchell Melton	DL	16 TKL / 1 TFL / 1 SACK