Pac-12 preview: Oregon, Arizona could be Final Four contenders
Sports Illustrated’s 2016–17 preview is guided by data from our College Basketball Projection System, a collaboration between economist Dan Hanner and SI’s Luke Winn and Jeremy Fuchs. We project teams on a player-by-player, lineup-based level and then simulate the season 10,000 times to generate our 1–351 national rankings and conference forecasts.
These are the model’s projections for the Pac-12, including individual awards, the teams’ order of finish and (advanced and raw) stats for the top seven players in each school’s rotation.
Find more about how our projection system works here, and read all of our 2016–17 preview content here.
The Big Picture
The Pac-12 hasn’t produced a Final Four team other than UCLA since 2001, and Oregon and Arizona are both candidates to end that drought this season. At the very least, they’ll start ‘16–17 ranked in the top 10, while UCLA and Cal have enough talent to crack the top 25. The league drops off precipitously after that, and there’s a chance it’ll only get four teams in to the 2017 NCAA tournament.
Player of the Year: Ivan Rabb, Cal
Rabb projects to average 18.3 points and 9.7 boards—making him the major-conference big man closest to 20-and-10—with a 119.7 offensive rating. He was an efficient role player last season while Jaylen Brown and Jordan Mathews dominated the offense, and there’s a chance Cal’s scoring attack could be better off with Rabb as its centerpiece. He’s hardly a lock for Pac-12 POY, though: Oregon’s Dillon Brooks, if he’s not slowed by a foot injury, will provide stiff competition, as will the guy who’s projected to win the next award. . . .
Newcomer of the Year: Markelle Fultz, Washington
Fultz averaged a stunning 21.8 points, 6.3 rebounds and 4.8 assists on the Huskies’ exhibition tour of Australia in August, and we project his freshman-year stat line to be in that range: 18.2 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 5.2 assists. Washington’s fast pace will inflate his numbers a bit, but Fultz is also a transcendent talent who’s the favorite to go No. 1 overall in the 2017 NBA draft. The biggest thing holding him back in awards races is the fact that the Huskies aren’t likely to be an NCAA tournament team.
All-Conference Team & Sixth Man
PG: Markelle Fultz, Washington
SG: Allonzo Trier, Arizonar
SF: Dillon Brooks, Oregon
PF: Chris Boucher, Oregon
PF: Ivan Rabb, Cal
6th man: SG: Isaac Hamilton, UCLA
Projected Order of Finish
| Conference Rank | Team | Proj. Conf. Record | ’15-16 Conf. Record |
| 1 | Oregon | 14–4 | 14–4 |
| 2 | Arizona | 13–5 | 12–6 |
| 3 | UCLA | 11–7 | 6–12 |
| 4 | California | 11–7 | 12–6 |
| 5 | USC | 9–9 | 9–9 |
| 6 | Utah | 9–9 | 13–5 |
| 7 | Colorado | 8–10 | 10–8 |
| 8 | Washington | 8–10 | 9–9 |
| 9 | Oregon State | 7–11 | 9–9 |
| 10 | Stanford | 7–11 | 8–10 |
| 11 | Arizona State | 7–11 | 5–13 |
| 12 | Washington State | 4–14 | 1–17 |
The Skinny on Each Team
1. Oregon (14–4)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Dillon Brooks | Jr | SF | 17.2 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 117.0 | 26% | 82% |
| Tyler Dorsey | So | SG | 12.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 117.6 | 21% | 70% |
| Chris Boucher | Sr | PF | 12.5 | 7.0 | 0.6 | 129.1 | 20% | 66% |
| Dylan Ennis | Sr | PG | 9.8 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 113.6 | 21% | 65% |
| Jordan Bell | Jr | PF | 8.3 | 5.8 | 1.4 | 114.1 | 19% | 57% |
| Kavell Bigby-Williams | Jr | PF | 6.9 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 107.6 | 20% | 43% |
| Casey Benson | Jr | PG | 5.7 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 126.1 | 12% | 60% |
2. Arizona (13–5)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Allonzo Trier | So | SG | 17.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 116.6 | 23% | 80% |
| Lauri Markkanen | Fr | PF | 9.8 | 6.0 | 0.8 | 109.8 | 21% | 60% |
| Dusan Ristic | Jr | C | 9.6 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 113.3 | 21% | 55% |
| Rawle Alkins | Fr | GF | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 105.5 | 19% | 58% |
| Kadeem Allen | Sr | PG | 7.8 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 106.8 | 20% | 58% |
| Ray Smith | Fr | SF | 7.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 110.5 | 20% | 44% |
| Parker Jackson-Cartwright | Jr | PG | 6.2 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 116.2 | 17% | 54% |
3. UCLA (11–7)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Isaac Hamilton | Sr | SG | 16.5 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 115.4 | 22% | 85% |
| Bryce Alford | Sr | PG/SG | 14.7 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 116.5 | 22% | 80% |
| Lonzo Ball | Fr | PG | 13.8 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 116.9 | 22% | 77% |
| Thomas Welsh | Jr | C | 11.8 | 8.8 | 0.7 | 126.5 | 17% | 70% |
| T.J. Leaf | Fr | PF | 10.5 | 6.9 | 0.9 | 111.5 | 20% | 63% |
| Aaron Holiday | So | PG/SG | 8.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 105.6 | 20% | 56% |
| Ike Anigbogu | Fr | C | 3.7 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 107.1 | 18% | 25% |
4. California (11–7)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Ivan Rabb | So | PF | 18.3 | 9.7 | 1.1 | 119.7 | 26% | 83% |
| Jabari Bird | Sr | SG | 16.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 118.8 | 22% | 79% |
| Grant Mullins | Sr | PG | 10.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 111.7 | 22% | 63% |
| Charlie Moore | Fr | PG | 6.7 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 104.7 | 21% | 46% |
| Kameron Rooks | Jr | C | 5.7 | 5.9 | 0.6 | 116.3 | 16% | 53% |
| Don Coleman | So | PG | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 99.9 | 20% | 41% |
| Sam Singer | Sr | PG | 4.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 99.4 | 18% | 47% |
5. USC (9–9)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Jordan McLaughlin | Jr | PG | 15.8 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 115.2 | 23% | 88% |
| Elijah Stewart | Jr | SG | 13.3 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 116.7 | 18% | 81% |
| Bennie Boatwright | So | PF | 12.4 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 110.4 | 23% | 63% |
| Chimezie Metu | So | PF | 9.5 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 108.6 | 21% | 59% |
| Shaqquan Aaron | So | SG | 7.6 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 97.1 | 21% | 54% |
| Jonah Mathews | Fr | SG | 7.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 105.6 | 19% | 47% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Fr | SG | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 103.6 | 16% | 42% |
6. Utah (9–9)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Kyle Kuzma | Jr | PF | 14.6 | 7.7 | 2.0 | 107.6 | 25% | 78% |
| Lorenzo Bonam | Sr | PG/SG | 13.9 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 115.1 | 21% | 86% |
| David Collette | Jr | PF | 10.4 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 112.1 | 22% | 33% |
| JoJo Zamora | Jr | SG | 8.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 101.6 | 19% | 61% |
| Tyler Rawson | Jr | PF | 7.5 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 103.1 | 21% | 50% |
| Gabe Bealer | Sr | SG/SF | 6.6 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 106.5 | 20% | 44% |
| Jayce Johnson | Fr | PF/C | 6.0 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 103.7 | 18% | 46% |
7. Colorado (8–10)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| George King | Jr | SG/SF | 14.7 | 5.8 | 1.0 | 109.3 | 24% | 70% |
| Xavier Johnson | Sr | SF | 13.6 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 109.9 | 23% | 71% |
| Josh Fortune | Sr | SG | 11.0 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 103.8 | 22% | 65% |
| Wesley Gordon | Sr | PF | 8.1 | 8.2 | 1.6 | 115.1 | 16% | 74% |
| Dominique Collier | Jr | PG | 7.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 104.8 | 19% | 56% |
| Derrick White | Sr | SG | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 104.5 | 19% | 52% |
| Tory Miller | Jr | PF/C | 6.2 | 4.8 | 0.3 | 104.7 | 20% | 43% |
8. Washington (8–10)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Markelle Fultz | Fr | PG/SG | 18.2 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 114.6 | 27% | 81% |
| David Crisp | So | PG/SG | 10.4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 103.0 | 20% | 67% |
| Dominic Green | So | SF | 9.7 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 102.8 | 21% | 55% |
| Noah Dickerson | So | PF | 9.7 | 5.6 | 0.5 | 105.1 | 20% | 60% |
| Malik Dime | Sr | PF | 9.3 | 6.2 | 0.4 | 123.4 | 16% | 62% |
| Matisse Thybulle | So | SF | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 108.1 | 16% | 61% |
| Matthew Atewe | Jr | PF | 6.1 | 4.7 | 0.5 | 97.7 | 17% | 47% |
9. Oregon State (7–11)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Stevie Thompson | So | SG | 17.3 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 110.9 | 24% | 86% |
| Tres Tinkle | So | SF | 15.9 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 114.0 | 23% | 83% |
| Drew Eubanks | So | PF | 10.7 | 5.9 | 0.7 | 111.0 | 19% | 69% |
| JaQuori McLaughlin | Fr | PG | 7.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 103.6 | 19% | 55% |
| Keondre Dew | Jr | SF | 6.5 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 89.4 | 20% | 50% |
| Ronnie Stacy | Jr | PG | 6.5 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 101.5 | 20% | 49% |
| Ben Kone | Fr | PF | 4.9 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 99.4 | 18% | 38% |
10. Stanford (7–11)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Reid Travis | Jr | PF | 13.1 | 7.1 | 0.8 | 103.2 | 23% | 75% |
| Dorian Pickens | Jr | SG/SF | 13.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 113.3 | 22% | 72% |
| Michael Humphrey | Jr | PF | 12.3 | 6.8 | 1.0 | 106.9 | 24% | 64% |
| Marcus Allen | Sr | SG | 11.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 105.9 | 21% | 68% |
| Marcus Sheffield | So | SG /SF | 7.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 101.0 | 23% | 45% |
| Robert Cartwright | So | PG | 6.0 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 107.3 | 15% | 57% |
| Josh Sharma | So | C | 3.8 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 103.3 | 16% | 31% |
11. Arizona State (7–11)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Tra Holder | Jr | PG | 14.3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 104.7 | 25% | 79% |
| Shannon Evans | Jr | PG | 12.1 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 109.9 | 20% | 78% |
| Obinna Oleka | Sr | SF/PF | 10.2 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 104.3 | 21% | 65% |
| Sam Cunliffe | Fr | SG | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 106.5 | 19% | 57% |
| Torian Graham | Sr | SG | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 108.7 | 20% | 50% |
| Jethro Tshisumpa | Fr | C | 7.4 | 4.9 | 0.6 | 103.8 | 18% | 55% |
| Kodi Justice | Jr | SG | 7.0 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 110.7 | 18% | 51% |
12. Washington State (4–14)
| Name | Class | Pos. | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Josh Hawkinson | Sr | PF | 15.4 | 10.8 | 1.5 | 114.5 | 22% | 82% |
| Ike Iroegbu | Sr | PG | 13.1 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 104.3 | 24% | 77% |
| Conor Clifford | Sr | C | 8.6 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 107.3 | 21% | 47% |
| Charles Callison | Sr | PG | 8.1 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 99.7 | 20% | 63% |
| Derrien King | Jr | SF | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 96.3 | 19% | 49% |
| Milan Acquaah | Fr | PG | 6.0 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 99.0 | 18% | 49% |
| K.J. Langston | So | SG | 5.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 100.0 | 19% | 42% |
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