The Wings can't go wrong with an even split, but Jimmy Howard is having the better season
Through 12 games this season, the Detroit Red Wings have evenly split the time between their two goaltenders, Jimmy Howard and Petr Mrazek.
Earlier this week, head coach Jeff Blashill addressed the timeshare between his two netminders, as reported by MLive's Ansar Khan.
"I think in today's NHL, most teams have had to use two goalies throughout the year; there's very few teams that are able to ride a guy year after year like a Marty Brodeur did at one time, whether it be through the regular season or even in the playoffs," Blashill said. "We want both guys playing at a high level, and they both, I think, have earned the opportunity to continue to play because of their performances."
"So, ultimately, if there's separation, that'll answer itself," Blashill continued. "If there's not, we'll continue to give both of them opportunities to play if we think they give us our best chance to win. Right now, they've both played so equally and so well that I feel they both give us a great chance to win."
Blashill is right. The days of goaltenders taking the reigns and playing each and every game are over. The last six Stanley Cup winning goaltenders have played less than 60 games in the regular season prior to their championships. Goaltenders that aren't overly utilized in the season have more energy for the playoffs, and NHL coaches are taking notice.
He's also right about the state of his current goaltending situation. Both Howard and Mrazek are off to great starts on their seasons. Howard's .934 save percentage ranks ninth in the NHL, while Mrazek's .921 save percentage makes him 18th on the list.
On the surface, Howard's numbers are just slightly better than Mrazek's. But if we dive a little deeper into each player's statistics, we can find that Howard has a definite edge on Mrazek when it comes to their six-game sample.
If we look at both Howard and Mrazek's unadjusted save percentage and adjusted save percentage (adjusted for quantity of high-quality, medium-quality and low-quality shots taken) at even strength 5-v-5, Howard is performing better than Mrazek.
And if we look at each player's save percentage at even strength 5-v-5 in low, medium and high-danger shooting areas, Howard again has the better numbers in the tougher areas of the ice.
Detroit's Goaltenders Save Percentages in Danger Areas at Even-Strength 5-v-5
| Player | Low-Danger | Medium-Danger | High-Danger |
| Jimmy Howard | .969 | .975 | .865 |
| Petr Mrazek | .986 | .971 | .810 |
Howard's .865 save percentage in high-danger areas is significantly better than Mrazek's .810 save percentage. That means if things get really ugly in Detroit's own zone, Howard has a better chance of bailing his team out than Mrazek through this six game sample.
The same can be said on the penalty kill. Take a look at each player's adjusted and unadjusted save percentage when they are shorthanded.
According to Hockey Reference, Howard has recorded five quality starts so far this season. That means in five different games, Howard has recorded a save percentage greater than his average save percentage on the year, or a .885 save percentage on nights in which he faces fewer than 20 shots. Mrazek has four quality starts.
Blashill has two quality starting goaltenders on his hands, a luxury in today's NHL. But if he wants to roll with the hot hand early on in the season, or a must-win game comes up early, he's better off putting Howard on the ice for now.
Emphasis on "for now." Each goaltender has only participated in six games so far this season, a small sample size to forecast an entire season. Should Howard keep up his numbers for the remainder of the season, he is quite easily the best option for the Red Wings. But his .942 adjusted save percentage at even strength this season is his highest save percentage of his entire career, far greater than his .919 adjusted save percentage at even strength just last year. It wouldn't be all that surprising if Howard starts regressing towards his averages. And Mrazek? The 23-year-old is putting up slightly better numbers than his previous season, exactly on pace with what is expected for a goaltender who hasn't yet reached his prime.
Right now, the Red Wings have two good goaltenders on their hands. Both are at the top of their game, and there is no clear-cut winner in the starting goaltender race far down the line. And that's a good problem to have.
