One would've been hard-pressed at the start of this NHL season to find any predictions putting the Dallas Stars among playoff-contending teams.
The Stars had an inexperienced general manager in former player Joe Nieuwendyk, a limited payroll as the team's lenders sought new ownership, a lack of experienced blueline depth and had cut loose popular veterans Mike Modano and Marty Turco during the offseason.
That ownership uncertainty also led to rampant early season speculation Nieuwendyk would be forced to trade away top center Brad Richards rather than lose him for nothing next summer to unrestricted free agency.
After missing the 2010 playoffs with a 12th overall finish in the Western Conference, most experts predicted the rebuilding Stars would once again fall short.
But entering this season's Christmas break, the Stars are not only in playoff contention but are jockeying with the Detroit Red Wings and Vancouver Canucks for first overall in the Conference, ranking among this season's biggest surprises so far.
One reason for the success was Niewendyk's savvy moves since the middle of last season. Working with a limited budget, he shored up his goaltending by acquiring and re-signing Kari Lehtonen and inking free agent Andrew Raycroft.
Lehtonen was considered a gamble due to his injury history, but he's been a workhorse this season with a 15-7-3 record in 25 games, including a 2.55 goals-against average and a .920 save percentage. He and Raycroft were also among the top 10 tandems in the league as their combined GAA was 10th-best, their save percentage ninth-best.
Head coach Marc Crawford appears more comfortable in his second year behind the Stars bench and his players have bought into his system that stresses offensive skill, speed, and grit.
Leading that aggressive offense is the first line of Brad Richards, Loui Eriksson and James Neal, who sit one-two-three in team scoring thus far.
Richards, coming off a 91-point effort in 2009-10, is having another strong performance and is on pace to exceed last season's numbers. He's also sixth overall among the league's points leaders. Meanwhile, Eriksson is on pace for a career-best 86 points, Neal 69 points.
The Richards line has carried the bulk of the offense so far, but since early December the second line of Mike Ribeiro, Brenden Morrow and Jamie Benn have been finding the back of the net more frequently, especially the latter two, which bodes well heading toward the second half of the schedule.
Another area of improvement was their overall defensive game, thanks in part to the play of workhorse Stephane Robidas and fellow blueliners Trevor Daley, Karlis Skrastins and Jeff Woywitka.
Home also appears to be where the heart is for this club, their 12-3-2 home record heading toward the Christmas break ranking among the league's best.
With over a half a season to be played, however, there remain problem areas that have to be addressed.
They still lack experienced puck-moving defensemen, something Nieuwendyk sought in vain to rectify earlier this season. A lack of offensive production from the blueline could be a significant issue as the season progresses.
While their overall defensive game has improved, their penalty killing, which entering this week was 24th overall, still needs work.
Lehtonen's injury history remains a concern and if he should be sidelined for any significant period, it could be a substantial blow to their playoff hopes despite the presence of backup Raycroft.
The Stars are barely above the bottom third of the league on the power play and if the production of the Richards line cools in the second half, it would be a serious setback.
While they've played very well at home, their road record (9-7-1) pales by comparison. It's not bad, but there is room for improvement.
Despite these issues, the Stars have made substantial strides and have gained confidence as a team. They've received clutch goaltending and timely scoring to lead the league in one-goal victories, playing with improved consistency compared to last season.
It remains to be seen how long the Stars can remain near the top of the very tight Western Conference standings this season but given their improvement despite a low payroll, ownership issues and lack of skilled two-way defensemen, the odds of at least making this year's playoffs are very good.
