Philadelphia Flyers' Slow Starts Are Symptom of Bigger Problem
The Philadelphia Flyers ability to come from behind is great and exciting, but their play outside these spurts is very concerning
The Philadelphia Flyers currently sit at 3-3-1. Not great, but not disastrous either. Likewise, you may see a stat like Claude Giroux’s 0 goals, but also see 8 assists and think no problem. Particularly when Voracek, Simmonds and Konecny are all hovering around a point per game, and the Flyers have one of the best goal rates in the NHL.
The natural fan response to this start might be, “the Flyers are good, but it’s those bad starts derailing them.” Even a casual fan could tell you the Flyers are having bad first periods. It’s hard NOT to notice when the Flyers have been outscored 6-1 in first periods this year.
That’s not ideal, but fortunately the Flyers have shown a great ability to come from behind. Most notably, the Flyers came back from 4-0 to make it 4-4 against the Blackhawks last week, and beat the Sabres despite trailing 3-0. That’s a rare ability, but the ability to control the play when tied up will lead to more wins.
Analyzing Advanced Stats
Overall, the Flyers are really struggling to sustain offensive pressure. This can be quantified by their team Corsi rate (shot attempts). Last year, the Flyers were 5th overall in the NHL by this measure. Thus far this season, the Flyers are 20th. If you try to weigh shot quality into shot quantity and calculate “expected goals for” per 60 minutes (as calculated at www.corsica.hockey), the Flyers are even worse, landing at 25th (they were 17th last year in this category).
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We should even take it one step further. We know that the score of a game effects the way teams play. All that time the Flyers are playing from behind while the opposition sits back protecting a lead is boosting the Flyers’ shot rates. Let’s take that out of the equation, and judge the Flyers only on 5v5 play when the game is tied.
Looking at data only from tied game situations, the Flyers have been terrible this year. Their rate of shot generation (Corsi-for per 60) is 23rd in the league. Their shot attempt differential to the opposition (Corsi percentage) is 27th.
Using “expected goals,” it gets even worse. The Philadelphia Flyers are 29th in expected goals for per 60 in tied situations. In terms of expected goal differential percentage, the Flyers are dead last in the NHL.
Whether or not you are believe in “advanced stats” or “hockey analytics”, these numbers merely reflect what Flyers observers are seeing with their plain eyes; the Flyers’ sustained offensive pressure is very weak so far this season. The line of Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier and Jakub Voracek are the only ones consistently generating chances.
The Flyers’ ability to come from behind shows the talent is there. Nonetheless, these “slow starts” are more than bad starts; they are playing poorly in “even-steven” game situations overall at any point in the game.
Playing from behind is a formula for disaster in the NHL. The Flyers must do a better job of sustaining offensive pressure when both teams are playing straight up, because sooner-or-later playing from behind in individual games will result in playing from behind in the standings table.
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