NHL season preview: Could Lightning strike shake up established order?
Stability is the buzzword as the NHL opens its 2014-15 regular season on Wednesday with four games; two in each conference.
The league put the bitter taste of the 2012-13 lockout behind it with record revenue that reached $3.7 billion last season and should top $4 billion this season.
Three financially troubled franchises were sold to stable ownership groups (Arizona, Florida and the New York Islanders), the new, $5.2 billion (Canadian) Rogers TV deal will kick in this season, adding to league and team coffers, and there is even talk of expansion on the horizon to locales such as Seattle, Quebec and Las Vegas.
The 2014 playoffs produced marquee conference finalists from the top three U.S. markets (New York, Los Angeles and Chicago), and the sport's most accomplished franchise, Montreal, made it a flawless foursome.
Aside from the annual personnel changes that normally occur through trades and free agency, not much has changed since the Kings won the Stanley Cup in June. The newly adopted playoff format remains the same to encourage division rivalries while making certain that worthy teams aren't left out. Any rules changes were mostly minor, and players won't have to worry about an Olympic break adding mileage to their travel and playing-weary legs.
Even the contenders look the same, with the Blackhawks, Bruins, Kings, Penguins and Ducks sporting the best odds.
NHL business is healthy and happy as a new season begins.
THREE BIGGEST OFFSEASON CHANGES
East-West gap widens: The disparity between the Western Conference and the Eastern Conference was apparent in head-to-head play last season. The West went 246-150-52 against the East, earning 60.7 percent of its possible points. The East was 202-188-58 against the West, earning 51.5 percent of its possible points.
The gap may have grown this offseason. Two of the East's top teams suffered significant losses. Boston lost Jarome Iginla and Shawn Thornton while the Rangers lost Brad Richards, Benoit Pouliot, Brian Boyle, Derek Dorsett, and Anton Stralman.
More important, in the West, Anaheim added center Ryan Kesler, St. Louis added center Paul Stastny, Dallas added center Jason Spezza and wing Ales Hemsky, Chicago added center Brad Richards, Colorado added Iginla and Minnesota added wing Thomas Vanek. It's not a stretch to suggest that eight of the NHL's top 12 or 13 teams now reside in the West. In the nine seasons since the 2004-05 NHL lockout, the West has won six Stanley Cups, including four of the past five.
Old coaches in new places: Talk about a contrast in situations. Noted defensive coach Barry Trotz takes over in Washington after 15 seasons of overachievement and under-appreciation in Nashville. His replacement in Music City, Peter Laviolette, has been charged with bringing a quicker tempo and a more offensive style to a team that may not have the horses to play that way. Nashville added forwards James Neal, Mike Ribeiro, Derek Roy and Olli Jokinen in the offseason, which looks OK until you start comparing that group to what the rest of the West offers.
Trotz has the opposite challenge with a defensively challenged group in Washington. Washington can score. The Capitals finished sixth in the East last season with 235 goals, just two goals off fourth place. But the Caps allowed 240 (11th). Washington added Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik in the offseason to address this problem. Not many analysts were impressed.
Young coaches with veteran teams: The one-year John Tortorella experiment was a disaster in Vancouver. A club accustomed to deep playoff runs became a non-playoff team that looked old. The Canucks didn't necessarily rectify the latter problem, but they jettisoned Tortorella in favor of Willie Desjardins, who has been remarkably successful at every other level of coaching. Vancouver also added pure goal scorer Radim Vrbata to play alongside the Sedins (Daniel and Henrik) and veteran goalie Ryan Miller. Will that be enough to stay afloat in the deep West?
First-year coach Mike Johnston faces even greater expectations in Pittsburgh. A team that sports Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin shouldn't boast the dubious distinction of not having won a playoff game past the second round since 2009. Christian Ehrhoff was a nice signing for the blue line, and Pittsburgh hopes it has improved the depth of its troublesome bottom six forwards. The main problem is that Marc-Andre Fleury still mans the net.
TEAM ON THE RISE
The Stars could be on the rise if goalie Kari Lehtonen holds up.
Dallas Stars: The Stars added center Jason Spezza and wing Ales Hemsky to a forward core that already included center Tyler Seguin, wing Jamie Benn and exciting rookies Alex Chiasson and Valeri Nichushkin. Defensive play is still a major question for a team that finished last in goals against (228) among the West's playoff teams. But the defensive corps the Stars sport on opening day could change at some point in the season if the offensive potential of this team is realized and goalie Kari Lehtonen can still perform at a high level.
TEAM IN DECLINE
Detroit Red Wings: It's not a given the Wings will continue to fall as stars Henrik Zetterberg (almost 34), Pavel Datsyuk (36) and Johan Franzen (34) age. Detroit has some young forward talent in Gustav Nyqvist and Tomas Tatar, and the Eastern Conference is forgiving to middle-of-the-road teams. But the Red Wings did nothing in the offseason to shore up a problematic blue line, and the team is too reliant on those three aging stars, who have all had injury problems recently.
TEAM THAT'S HARD TO PREDICT
Colorado Avalanche: There are two ways to look at the Avs. The positive spin is that 26-year-old goalie Semyon Varlamov's .927 save percentage and near Vezina-Trophy win were not anomalies in an otherwise ordinary career; they were signs of a goalie coming of age, which normally happens in the late 20s. Colorado also boasts a dazzling array of top-end forward skill in Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, Ryan O'Reilly, Matt Duchene and newly acquired veteran Jarome Iginla to help erase mistakes. The negative spin? Varlamov will regress to the mean, the Avs' blue line is ordinary, and Colorado was one of the worst possession teams in the league last season. Over the last seven years, teams that finished below 48 percent in FenClose, a puck possession stat that measures the percentage of even-strength shot attempts with the score close, made the playoffs only 20 percent of the time (11 out of 54).
THREE STORYLINES WORTH WATCHING
Andrew Barroway's takeover in Arizona: The Coyotes should announce that Barroway has bought 51 percent of the team in the next few days. The infusion of cash should allow Coyotes GM Don Maloney to spend more freely for the first time in his eight-year tenure. How much will that mean to coach Dave Tippett, who regularly squeezes water out of rocks in the desert? And what realistic hope do the Coyotes have of finding that top center they so desperately need?
The fishbowls in Toronto and San Jose: The Maple Leafs haven't won the Cup since 1967, and that is why Brendan Shanahan is calling the shots as team president. Will all the house cleaning and a new focus on analytics matter when the core of a non-playoff-team remains intact? In San Jose, the Sharks are still reeling from a blown 3-0 series lead against the Kings in the first round of the playoffs. Joe Thornton was stripped of his captaincy, and San Jose did relatively little in the offseason despite some talk of changes. Maybe the Sharks realized after a thorough analysis that a total overhaul of a 111-point team wasn't necessary.
The Wild seem poised to take the next step -- until you consider goalie Niklas Backstrom's frequent injuries.
The goaltending in Minnesota: The Wild made a thrilling run in the Western Conference playoffs, upsetting Central Division champ Colorado and giving the Blackhawks a run for their money. Minnesota has speed to burn up front, a free-agent prize in Thomas Vanek and rock on the blue line in Ryan Suter. What they don't have is stable goaltending. Niklas Backstrom hasn't been able to play a full season the last two years due to health issues, and Darcy Kuemper is short on experience.
Ryan Miller, Vancouver: Is Miller done at age 34, or can he enjoy a revival in Vancouver? The Blues made him their major trade-deadline acquisition last season, thinking he could put them over the top, but he posted an .897 save percentage in a first-round playoff loss to Chicago. Once considered one of the NHL's elite goalies, Miller may be out of starting options if he can't deliver this season.
P.K. Subban, Montreal: After a bizarre negotiation that originally was headed for arbitration, the Canadiens signed Subban to an eight-year, $72 million deal. We love Subban's game and his flair on the ice, but he has a lot to prove now that he's living in the same financial neighborhood as Ryan Suter, Shea Weber and Duncan Keith. Subban carries the highest cap hit of any NHL defenseman at $9 million.
BOLD PREDICTION
Vancouver will enjoy a Sedin resurgence, Radim Vrbata will top the 30-goal mark playing alongside Daniel and Henrik, and the Canucks will find a way to sneak back into the playoffs in the logjam that is the Western Conference.
NOT-SO-BOLD PREDICTION
Chicago and Los Angeles will battle it out in the Western Conference final for a third straight year, adding legs to what is becoming one of the best playoff rivalries around. The winner will temporarily gain the edge in the competition for Stanley Cup No. 3 in whatever they're calling this decade.
PRESEASON AWARD WINNERS
Hart Trophy (MVP)
Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh: The best player, er, best forward in the league usually wins this, and the voters will fight you tooth and nail to defend this narrow-minded and somewhat redefined notion of MVP. Crosby is the best forward in the NHL, so he'll win again, which will be a nice consolation prize since the Penguins won't win the Cup.
Chalk up another Hart award for Sidney Crosby.
Vezina Trophy (best goalie)
Tuukka Rask, Boston Bruins: Rask becomes the first repeat winner since New Jersey's Martin Brodeur (2006-07; '07-08). Boston lost some offense when Iginla left but Boston knows how to shut opponents down like no team in the league outside LA. That's a really good skill when you also have one of the league's top three goalies.
Norris Trophy (best defenseman)
Jon Cooper, Tampa Bay Lightning: Cooper coached his first full season last year and produced 101 points and a No. 3 seed in the East. He fell in the first round of the playoffs, but that was mostly because Tampa played without injured goalie Ben Bishop. The offseason additions of defensemen Jason Garrison and Anton Stralman, veteran forwards Brenden Morrow and Brian Boyle and Evgeni Nabokov as a stable backup to Bishop should help the Lightning make noise in the East this year.
Calder Trophy (rookie of the year)
Jonathan Drouin, Tampa Bay: Drouin was 2014 Calder winner Nathan MacKinnon's linemate with the Halifax Mooseheads of the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League. The No. 3 pick in 2013 is limited by a slight thumb fracture right now, but he should be good to go in a couple weeks, adding to Tampa's growing depth of skill.
Selke Trophy (best defensive forward)
Jonathan Toews, Chicago: Maybe Toews and Boston's Patrice Bergeron should just alternate years winning this trophy because we know nobody in the Pacific time zone ever wins this award (sorry, Anze Kopitar). Since the Selke's inception after the 1977-78 season, it has been awarded to a player from a team in the Pacific Time Zone just once -- Vancouver's Ryan Kesler in 2010-11.
GM of the Year
Steve Yzerman, Tampa Bay: Remember all those offseason moves we mentioned above? 'Nuff said.
STANLEY CUP FINALS PREDICTION
Chicago vs. Tampa Bay: Steven Stamkos gets his first taste of the Cup Finals, and the Lightning's stable of young, skilled forwards get a chance to see how the NHL's most skilled club operates. The experience is valuable, but the Hawks win the Cup for the third time in six seasons.
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