NHL Predictions: Answering Tough Questions
Apr 9, 2016; Columbus, OH, USA; Chicago Blackhawks right wing Patrick Kane (88) against the Columbus Blue Jackets at Nationwide Arena. The Blue Jackets won 5-4 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
NHL Predictions: Answering Tough Questions For Who is Most Likely to…
Next in line for our NHL predictions, we attempt to answer some very difficult questions about the upcoming 2016-17 season. We see similar scenarios play out each and every year; someone unexpectedly takes the league by storm, another player blossoms with a change a scenery, a team falls flat on their face out of the gates to open the season, and another one finds a way to collapse in the second half.
While every situation is unique in its own way, we’ve managed to identify particular situations that tend to be stuck on repeat playing over and over.
Which brings us to today’s topic. We are simply proposing questions that begin with “most likely to…” We have identified some of these common scenarios listed above, and in parentheses followed the question with the team/or individual that fit the mold in 2015-16.
NHL Predictions: Most Likely to…
Take the league by storm with a dominating breakout season (i.e. Patrick Kane in 2015-16)?
Vladimir Tarasenko, St.Louis Blues
Mar 14, 2016; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; St. Louis Blues right wing Vladimir Tarasenko (91) during the warmup period against the Calgary Flames at Scotiabank Saddledome. Calgary Flames won 7-4. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports
The Tarasenk-show posted a career-high 40 goals (74 points) in 2015-16. Even more impressive, he did while St.Louis was continually ravaged by injuries. It’s a bit scary to think of the possibilities if he were given a full season to play alongside Jaden Schwartz. If anyone can challenge the great Alexander Ovechkin as the best Russian player in the game, put your money on Vladimir Tarasenko.
March 18, 2015; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Columbus Blue Jackets head coach Todd Richards as they played the Edmonton Oilers during the third period at Rexall Place. Blue Jackets won 4-3 in a shootout. Mandatory Credit: Walter Tychnowicz- USA TODAY Sports
Stumble out of the gates early in the season (i.e. Columbus Blue Jackets in 2015-16)?
Carolina Hurricanes
Apr 7, 2016; Raleigh, NC, USA; Carolina Hurricanes head coach Bill Peters (C) looks on from behind the bench against the Montreal Canadiens during the third period at PNC Arena. The Canadiens won 4-2. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
It’s nothing more than pure speculation, but the ingredients are there for a sloppy start to the season. Maybe it’s the fact that nearly half their defense core needs to avoid the sophomore slump. Or, perhaps it has something to do with a lot new faces joining the team.
If rookies and second year players aren’t enough to garner a slow start, just leave it to their underwhelming top six forward group. This feels like one of those teams that will get progressively better as the year goes on.
Suffer a collapse mid-to-late season (i.e. Montreal Canadiens in 2015-16)?
Arizona Coyotes
Mar 12, 2016; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Arizona Coyotes goalie Mike Smith (41) guards his net as Edmonton Oilers left wing Patrick Maroon (19) tries to score during the second period at Rexall Place. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports
Again, this is pure speculation. History tends to repeat itself, and Arizona neglected to address their goaltending.
Folks tend to focus too much on his 2011-12 campaign where he carried the Coyotes deep into the playoffs. It’s too bad that Mike Smith is the definition of inconsistent. He failed in Dallas and Tampa Bay, and frankly hasn’t been good enough for four seasons now. Even if he manages to stay healthy (perhaps the most difficult career task), there’s no guarantee he gives this team a chance to win every night.
Sure, they could turn to young Louis Domingue, who won Rookie of the Month honors back in January, but we don’t see Toronto forcing Garret Sparks into the crease, or Boston pressuring Malcolm Subban to perform. My point? Any prospect can come up and perform for a brief stint, but it doesn’t necessarily mean they’re ready.
To be honest, Arizona may regret putting so much dead money on the books. Their only relief will come when Dave Bolland is transferred to the long-term IR, at which point the Yotes should seriously consider calling Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Colorado, or Columbus.
Feb 26, 2016; Newark, NJ, USA; New Jersey Devils right wing Kyle Palmieri (21) shoots the puck during the second period of their game against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Prudential Center. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports
Have first breakout season with new team (i.e. Kyle Palmieri in 2015-16)?
Jonathan Marchessault, Florida Panthers
Dec 26, 2015; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning center Jonathan Marchessault (42) skates with the puck against the Columbus Blue Jackets during the second period at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
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Here’s a guy that became a victim of the number’s game in Tampa Bay. The Lightning are heavily deep up front, and have key prospects such as Brayden Point, Mitchell Stephens, and Brett Howden in the mix.
There would be no room in the future top six for Marchessault, and even less room on a third-line setting – TB has more than enough projected 3rd liners in their system. Hence the reason he became available in free agency.
It was a very minor piece of news on July 1st by Florida, but notice how early into free agency frenzy he was signed? Now, there’s no guarantee the undersized winger pans out with the Panthers, but it’s well worth the gamble. He’s a slick, creative playmaker that has a tendency to make linemates better. Stick him alongside Nick Bjugstad, it might be a recipe for success.
Struggle scoring goals early in the season (i.e. Anaheim Ducks in 2015-16)?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Mar 31, 2016; Buffalo, NY, USA; Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Mike Babcock (C) talks to right wing Tobias Lindberg (46) from behind the bench during the first period against the Buffalo Sabres at First Niagara Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
Couple the Leafs youth and inexperience with Mike Babcock’s defensively structured system, Toronto should struggle to find the back of the net – doesn’t necessarily mean that will be the case though. If he rewind just one season, who would have ever predicted the Ducks scoring less than a goal per game on average at the beginning?
Show up in a contract year (i.e. Loui Eriksson in 2015-16)?
Martin Hanzal, Arizona Coyotes
Feb 18, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Coyotes center Martin Hanzal (11) and Dallas Stars center Tyler Seguin (91) wait for the puck to drop during the second period at Gila River Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
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Hanzal hasn’t appeared in more than 65 regular season games since 2010-11. His only healthy campaign came back in 2009-10 when he played 81 games (his third NHL season).
Just don’t be surprised if he puts up career-high numbers and actually manages to stay healthy in 2016-17. Hanzal will be 30 when he hits unrestricted free agency next summer, and surely someone will overpay if he shows up in his contract year.
Apr 25, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Anaheim Ducks goalie Frederik Andersen (31) reacts after a save during the first period against the Nashville Predators in game six of the first round of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Lose their starter role (i.e. Frederik Andersen/Jaroslav Halak in 2015-16)?
Ryan Miller, Vancouver Canucks
Mar 24, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Vancouver Canucks goalie Ryan Miller (30) makes a save during the first period against the Nashville Predators at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
This one is fairly obvious. Miller, an aging veteran is on the decline, while Jacob Markstrom prepares to represent Team Sweden at the World Cup of Hockey. They also have top goalie prospect Thatcher Demko in the mix.
It would make little sense to give Ryan Miller the bulk amount of starts. Markstrom will clearly be the one protected in expansion (not that Las Vegas will want Miller), and in all honesty, at this point is the better goaltender anyways.
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See a dip in production (i.e. Nick Foligno from 2014-15 to 2015-16)?
Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks
Apr 9, 2016; Columbus, OH, USA; Chicago Blackhawks right wing Patrick Kane (88) against the Columbus Blue Jackets at Nationwide Arena. The Blue Jackets won 5-4 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
Foligno is a tough example to use since he went from 73 points in 2014-15 to 37 in 2015-16. We don’t foresee any major drop-offs quite that significant, but who knows.
Just don’t be surprised if Patrick Kane takes a slight step back in 2016-17. He saw a 42-point increase (to 106 points) from his previous 64-point total in 2014-15. His two best seasons before that were 88 points in 2009-10 and 73 points in 2010-11. It’s not that Patrick Kane won’t have a productive season, but he might be coming off a career-year when we look back after his career is over.
Exceed expectations in their rookie season (i.e. Artemi Panarin in 2015-16)?
Oliver Bjorkstrand, Columbus Blue Jackets
Mar 17, 2016; Columbus, OH, USA; Columbus Blue Jackets right wing Oliver Bjorkstrand (28) against the Detroit Red Wings at Nationwide Arena. The Red Wings won 3-1. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
He finished the NHL season on a four-game point streak (six points over that span), and then went on to rack up 16 points in 17 games en route to being named Calder Cup MVP helping Lake Erie (now Cleveland) to a league championship.
Oliver had a slow start adjusting to the pro-style game, but found his stride over the second half. Largely underrated, this young man has the potential to be an impact top-six forward, and he certainly has the talent/skill-set to hear his name called among Calder Trophy finalists in 2016-17.
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