New England Patriots

Week 3: Texans - Patriots Preview and Prediction

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 10:10 p.m. ET

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The Houston Patriots…er, the Houston Texans (2-0) travel to Foxboro on to face the New England Patriots (2-0) to play on Thursday Night Football.

The Texans have been referred to as the “Patriots of the South” due to how similar both teams have been since Bill O’Brien arrived in Houston.

Last week, the Patriots just barely escaped what could have been a disaster against the Miami Dolphins. But not everything was positive about the win, as the team lost QB Jimmy Garoppolo during the 2nd Quarter and were forced to play rookie QB Jacoby Brissett.

Luckily for them, it is possible the Garoppolo may be able to make a return to play on Thursday. But could the team be rushing him back too fast?

The Texans also beat the Kansas City Chiefs last week, as they got their payback for an embarrassing loss last season in the playoffs. It was a defensive struggle, as there were a total of 8 FGs (4 for each team) and a total of 5 turnovers between both teams.

On a short week, it will be interesting to see how these two teams scheme against each other with so much familiarity between them.

Dec 13, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt (99) rushes against New England Patriots offensive tackle Cameron Fleming (71) during the second quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Quick stats

Matchups to Watch

Patriots OL vs Texans DL

The Texans boost one of the best defensive fronts, simply because they have arguably the best defensive player in the league on their roster: J.J Watt. As the quarterback of the defense, Watt is now partnered with former Patriots Defensive Tackle Vince Wilfork, who’s leadership is well known on the team. The team also gets a boost with 2014 first round-pick Jadeveon Clowney constantly improving. For the Patriots, their offensive line got a boost last week with Nate Solder back at Left Tackle, and Shaq Mason playing more snaps at Right Guard. They have played far better than last season the first two games, but they will be up for their biggest challenge yet.

Texans WRs vs Patriots CBs

Malcolm Butler ad Logan Ryan will have their hands full with WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller the entire night. If one thing is for certain, Bill Belichick will gameplan around taking away the opposing team’s most important player on offense. He won’t let the team’s #1 beat him, but if you can beat him with your #2 or #3, you deserve to win. Which means, it’s likely Ryan will again cover Hopkins with safety help overtop, and leave Butler on Fuller. Fuller is coming off two huge back to back games. It’s not certain if Bulter’s ankle will be a factor, but its something worth watching. Also, Braxton Miller got injured vs. the Chiefs and Jaelen Strong was forced to take his place. Don’t be surprised if Bill O’Brien tries to get him involved as the #3.

Dec 13, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans tight end Ryan Griffin (84) cannot make a catch during the second half against the New England Patriots at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

X-Factors

Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Duron Harmon

With two great, play-making receivers on the roster, and QB Brock Osweilier now throwing a good deep ball out of nowhere, it would not be surprising if the Texans offense dials up the deep ball multiple times during the game. Not only will both Devin McCourty and Duron Harmon be important in the middle of the field, but they may also be called upon as well as Patrick Chung to help cover TE CJ Fiedorowicz. He may not be a threat as a receiver, but taking away more options from Osweiler will allow the Patriots pass rush to get home.

Players to Watch

Will Fuller

As stated earlier, The Patriots are going to try to eliminate Hopkins as an option, meaning Osweiler will likely look Fuller’s way. Depending on who is across from Fuller, whether it is Butler or Justin Coleman, this could ultimately be one of the most important matchups for the Patriots defense.

Interesting Stat: According to Pro Football Focus, Will Fuller has been targeted 10 times 20+ yards downfield, the most by any WR in the league through two weeks.

Jadeveon Clowney

With majority of the offensive gameplan surrounding neutralizing Watt as usual, this may open things up for Clowney, who has increasingly become effective at rushing the passer. Watt can line up anywhere on the line, so they need to recognize where he is, but they also need to identify where Clowney will be and how their blocking assignments will change. There has been progress along the line since Dante Scarnecchia has returned, so it will be intriguing to see how they responds.

Dec 13, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; New England Patriots defensive tackle Malcom Brown (90) recovers a fumble during the fourth quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. The Patriots defeated the Texans 27-6. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Keys to the Game

Keeping the Ball out of Brissett/Garoppolo’s hands

Regardless of who takes snaps on Thursday, whether it is a banged up Garoppolo, or Brissett, the Patriots will again need to rely on the ground game to win. If Garoppolo plays, depending on how well he will be able to throw the ball downfield, it will determine how often they go to the ground. However, he is obviously not 100%, so its likely they won’t be able to drop back as much as they did in the previous games. The same will likely happen if Brissett plays. Resorting to the run-game will mean the Patriots run-blocking will need to be at it’s best. TE Martellus Bennett has proved he is a solid at blocking, but if the Patriots as able to get Rob Gronkowski back for this game, it will make things even simpler. When asked to drop back, play-action and quick three-step drops will be most effective to keep the Texans pass rush at bay.

No Explosives Plays

Stopping the Texans offense will be similar to trying to stop the Cardinals offense: No explosive plays downfield. The secondary performed well against the Cardinals, so if they can implement a similar gameplan, they keep the Patriots in this game. This also relates to the run game as well. Despite being heavily under-utilized in Miami, RB Lamar Miller is being put to good use in Houston. Limiting him on the ground and stopping any possible huge gains will be pivotal.

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Pass Rush

Last week against the Miami Dolphins, New England’s pass rush was somewhat non-existent. If they are not able to get to Osweiler this game, there will be huge issues. A lot of that may have to do with two of the Patriots skillful pass rushes inactive last week (LB Dont’a Hightower, DT Anthony Johnson). If both are again unable to play this Thursday, which may be the case on a short week, they will need to find other ways to bring pressure without leaving someone like Jonathan Freeny one-on-one in coverage. Osweiler hasn’t been perfect this season so far (3 TDs 3 INTs), so if the Patriots can confuse him with different types of pressure, the likelihood of him turning the ball over will increase.

No Turnovers

Speaking of turnovers, the Patriots will need to play a clean game, something they haven’t been able to do yet this season. All their turnovers have been on fumbles, so ball security will need to be improved this week and going forward. With a rookie QB or a banged up QB, the Patriots will need as many opportunities to put points on the board as possible. Should something like last week happen again, they will surely lose this game.

Health

Escaping this game with no injuries whether they win or lose will be the most critical key to this game. The Patriots are already banged up on both sides of the ball and are trying to get players back. A repeat of last season or 2009 is not ideal.

Dec 13, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; New England Patriots defensive tackle Malcom Brown (90) and defensive end Jabaal Sheard (93) celebrate recovering a fumble during the second half against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Last Match Recap

27-6 Patriots

With the team losing back-to-back games for the first time since 2012, the Patriots looked to get back on track with a win on the road against the Texans on Sunday Night Football. This was also the first time Bill O’Brien and Brian Hoyer faced their former coach and team. The Patriots defense held the Texans to 6 points (2 FGs) the entire game, and it was pretty much over at half time. It wasn’t an impressive outing for the offense, however, they did so without some of their top players.

Prediction

The opponents the Texans played the first two weeks (WK1 – Bears, WK2 – Chiefs) may not have been huge threats, however, this is a team who is off to a hot start. Bill O’Brien will also try to motivate his team so he can possibly get a meaningful win. This will also be the first time Wilfork returns to Foxboro for the first time since playing the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship during the 2014 season. Expect him to be pretty emotional as well.

HoustonTexans13

Regardless of who is starting at QB, this game will be fairly close. The Patriots will need to heavily rely on their ground game and their defense to escape with a win.