New England Patriots

W2W4: New England Patriots (3-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-4)

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 2:21 p.m. ET

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New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is back. Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

The New England Patriots are coming off a clunker of a loss last week against the Buffalo Bills. With rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett playing the role of sacrificial lamb in the final game without Tom Brady, the offense was ineffective against Rex Ryan and the Buffalo Bills as they were shutout 16-0.

Brissett had surgery on this injured right thumb this week and has been placed on season-ending injured reserve. Jimmy Garoppolo will have to back-up Brady as Brissett’s thumb injury was clearly worse than believed and probably had no business trying to throw a football last week.

The worst performance against Buffalo was the New England defense. The unit was gashed by running back LeSean McCoy and the short passing game of quarterback Tyrod Taylor. The Patriots’ defensive game plan of repeatedly dropping into a zone defense forced Taylor to put together long drives with accurate, short passes and that is exactly what he did in the first half.

The coaches on both sides of the ball were overly conservative and uninspired. The defense failed to make big plays and the offense (outside of Martellus Bennett) looked overmatched. Even the special teams unit–so strong the week before against Houston–was making mistakes.

It was something not often seen in New England in the past decade and a half: a sloppy, ugly, uninspired game. However, New England has the perfect remedy: the emotional leader, the heart and soul of the franchise, Tom Brady is going to be back on the field against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday.

So without further delay, let’s get to the match-ups, the keys to to the game, and a look at both teams in Tom Brady’s first game back in 2016:

New England Patriots Passing Offense vs Cleveland Browns Passing Defense

New England Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman will have Tom Brady to toss him passes at last. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Tom Brady is back.

Oh wait, that’s not enough? OK.

There are major questions regarding the Patriots’ chemistry on offense as they incorporate Tom Brady back into the offense after he has been away from the team for a month. His top two targets–Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski–are both on the injury report this week. Starting right tackle Marcus Cannon (calf) and left guard Joe Thuney (shoulder) showed up as questionable this week as well.

Gronkowski has one reception in two games after missing the first two games of the season. Edelman leads the team with just 19 reception in four games. Tight end Martellus Bennett has picked up the slack with 15 catches for a team-leading 247 yards. Danny Amendola leads all receivers with two touchdowns. Free agent Chris Hogan is averaging just two receptions a game. The offense has clearly struggled with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback these last two and a half games.

The return of Tom Brady will solve some of those woes–but the next question becomes how much rust does he have and how long to shake it off?

In Brady’s absence, LeGarrette Blount has been the bellcow with 352 yards in four games (a 1,400 yard pace over 16 games). Blount is on the injury report with a hip injury and with Brady back receiving back James White (and possibly D.J. Foster) should get more opportunities receiving out of the backfield in spread formations.

Through four games the Patriots are 28th in the NFL in passing yards and 3rd in rushing yards. With Brissett behind center, the offense has failed to gain 300 total yards during the past two games. It should be interesting to see what the offense looks like with Martellus Bennett, Gronkowski, Edelman, Amendola, and Hogan with Brady behind center.

The Browns may be 0-4 but they will not lay down at home against the Patriots. That said, their defense has allowed 29, 25, 30, and 31 points in each game this season. They have allowed 1,039 yards through the air in four games with ten passing touchdowns allowed. The defense lacks marquee stars other than cornerback Joe Haden.

The Browns got two sacks from scrap heap pickup Cam Johnson coming off the bench behind starting outside linebackers Corey Lemonier and Emmanuel Ogbah. The rookie Ogbah had his best game of the season last week making plays all over the field as he adapts to outside linebacker after having had his hand on the ground throughout his college career.

Patriots fans will recognize inside linebacker Demario Davis who tangled with Gronkowski in coverage the past four years with the Jets. Opposite Haden at cornerback is another familiar face in Jamar Taylor who formerly was with the Dolphins after being a second round pick in 2013. Taylor and Haden have been solid in pass coverage. However, after those two there are weak spots New England can exploit.

The Browns have veteran Tramon Williams and Briean Boddy-Calhoun at the third cornerback position and both have been terrible. Look for Brady to look for Amendola matched-up with these two throughout the game.

Ditto at linebacker where Chris Kirksey is underrated and one of the better coverage linebackers in the NFL. In a two tight end set Kirksey can cover Gronkowski or Bennett, but whoever draws Demario Davis should have a big advantage. With two tight ends, the Browns may not be able to hide Davis in coverage as the Jets have done.

With Brady even somewhat on track and accurate, he should find big holes in the Cleveland coverage and be able to exploit the matchups before the pass rush can get near him.

ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Next: New England Patriots Rushing Offense vs Cleveland Browns Rushing Defense

New England Patriots Rushing Offense vs Cleveland Browns Rushing Defense

New England Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount has been leading the offense. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

LeGarrette Blount has been the MVP of the Patriots’ offense through the first four weeks of the season with Tom Brady out due to suspension. With Brady back, Blount is expected to see his workload lessen. However, if Brady can get the offense out to some leads, Blount should still have opportunities to wear down defenses and churn the clock in the second half of games.

Last week Matt Jones led a Washington rushing attack with 117 yards on the ground on 22 carries. The Browns allowed 145 yards total on the ground against Washington, 115 yards rushing the week prior to the Dolphins, 80 yards to the Ravens in week two, and 133 yards to the Eagles in week one.

Demario Davis was brought in from New York to help in the running game but his impact has been minimal this year. Not having the Jets dynamic defensive line in front of him seems to limit his effectiveness. On the Cleveland defensive line, the Browns lean on the gigantic frame of former first round draft pick Danny Shelton. Shelton has size and is strong and can clog rushing lanes and tie up blockers to let his linebackers and strong safety Derrick Kindred to clean up the running backs.

Alongside Shelton, the Browns lack impact players at the defensive end positions. Jamie Meder and Xavier Cooper are young players still trying to make their way in the NFL. The Browns need Carl Nassib (aka Crazy Carl from Penn State) to use his athleticism and length to make an impact. Unfortunately, the rookie broke his hand in week two and is questionable to play and even if he returns may be limited.

The Patriots pulled the plug on the Jonathan Cooper experiment as the former Arizona first round draft pick was released this week. That leaves guards Shaq Mason and rookie Joe Thuney as the presumptive starters alongside center David Andrews. The three youngsters had a rough game against Buffalo and need to bounce back this week to make space for the running game.

Left tackle Nate Solder has been fantastic in the running game mauling defensive ends so far in the first quarter of the season. Marcus Cannon has shown improvement with his biggest backer–offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia–back in the fold. Cannon is questionable with a calf injury this week. If he cannot go then Cameron Fleming is next in line at right tackle. Fleming is an excellent run blocker (better than Cannon) but is behind him due to spotty pass blocking.

So far, the Browns have failed to stop anyone in the rushing game and with LeGarrette Blount running as well as he ever has in New England, there is little reason to expect them to stop the Patriots on the ground this week.

ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Next: New England Patriots Passing Defense vs Cleveland Browns Passing Offense

New England Patriots Passing Defense vs Cleveland Browns Passing Offense

New England Patriots cornerback Logan Ryan has had a tough 2016 to date. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

One of the biggest surprises last week was the substandard play of cornerback Logan Ryan against the Bills’ wide receivers. While a clearly hobbled Malcolm Butler was solid in coverage, Ryan seemed to have open receivers in front of him the entire game. Part of that was the game plan (way too much weak zone defense giving the receivers too much cushion) but part of that was Ryan seeming a half-step slow and not driving back to the ball.

Ryan and Butler are much better in press man-coverage and last week’s game plan may have had as much to do with Butler’s ankle as with the mobile quarterback style of Tyrod Taylor. The week prior, both Ryan and Butler (and even nickel cornerbacks Cyrus Jones and Justin Coleman) were fantastic playing press-man on Houston’s wide receiver group. If healthy, they need to get back to that aggressive, swarming defensive style.

The Patriots face Cleveland’s rookie quarterback Cody Kessler in just his third start. Kessler is accurate and intelligent and has completed 67% of his passes so far this season. With presumptive starters Robert Griffin and Josh McCown out, Kessler has had to step into the role ahead of schedule. For two weeks, Kessler has held his own.

He has a few weapons on offense who are sneaky good: wide receiver Terrelle Pryor has blossomed into the top wide receiver. While veteran Andrew Hawkins and rookie Corey Coleman have been inconsistent opposite Pryor, Duke Johnson has been excelling as the third down back. While he has not been the consistent contributor he was last year, Gary Barnidge is sneaky good at wide receiver.

Pryor–like Julian Edelman in New England–has transformed from a college quarterback to a wide receiver. Pryor has polished route running for such an inexperienced receiver and excellent athleticism. Pryor has strong hands and speed to get deep. His biggest asset is his brain as his knowledge from the other side of the pass has helped him tremendously.

Browns quarterbacks have been sacked 11 times in four games, but the offensive line has some solid pieces. Left tackle Joe Thomas is the best blocker in the NFL and guards John Greco and Joel Bitonio are solid but Greco has to move to center. Center Austin Reiter tore his ACL and is likely lost for the season just weeks after he was signed to replace center Cameron Erving who is out with a bruised lung.

With Greco at center, the Browns have to move Alvin Bailey to right guard. Bailey was being disciplined for an off-field arrest but rookie Spencer Drango struggled at guard last week and Bailey “coincidently” had his punishment end this week.

The Patriots will be without impressive rookie defensive tackle Vincent Valentine and had to promote rookie Woodrow Hamilton from the practice squad. Hamilton is not a pass rusher so expect defensive end Jabaal Sheard to move inside on passing downs to rush the passer. With Rob Ninkovich back second-year pass rusher Trey Flowers and veteran Chris Long can bring fresh legs on the edge on passing downs and revitalize the pass rush.

The Browns will have a difficult time getting the ball downfield with a healthy Malcolm Butler at cornerback and a bounce-back week from Logan Ryan, the Patriots should be in position to confuse the rookie quarterback and create a few turnovers.

ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Next: New England Patriots Rushing Defense vs Cleveland Browns Rushing Offense

New England Patriots Rushing Defense vs Cleveland Browns Rushing Offense

New England Patriots defense end Rob Ninkovich is back from his suspension. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

One sign of trouble last week in the New England rushing defense against Buffalo was the lack of containment on the edge. No matter how disappointing Chandler Jones could be disappearing as a pass rusher in big games, he was always an underrated run defender (and looked great in the role on Thursday night with Arizona). The return of defensive end Rob Ninkovich from suspension should go a long way in run defense this week.

The Patriots will be without linebacker Shea McClellin who has been solid in run defense so far in 2016. Keeping defensive ends Chris Long and Trey Flowers on the field to rush the passer only should help keep them fresh and improve the pass rush and also help out against the run with them on sidelines. Both can be undisciplined and in the backfield after the running back runs through where they were supposed to be setting the edge.

In 2016 no team has figured out how to slow down the Cleveland run game. The Browns let two of their best offensive linemen go in free agency as center Alex Mack and promising right tackle Mitchell Schwartz found greener pastures. However, Cameron Erving (when healthy) and right tackle Austin Pasztor–while weak in pass protection–have been excellent making space for the running backs.

Both running back Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson have been anchoring the top running game in the NFL. The Browns are tops in the NFL with 597 yards on the ground in four games. They averaged 5.7 yards per rush so far and have rushed for 120, 145 169, and 163 total yards rushing week-by-week.

Crowell is the power back who runs over defenders. He has 394 yards on 61 attempts for a ridiculous 6.5 yards per rush. Johnson is the third down back who is a weapon in the passing game but also a weapon running the ball. Johnson is quick and shifty and has 148 yards so far on just 24 carries for a 6.2 rushing average.

After New England struggled with the read-option and Wildcat formations against Buffalo last week the Browns should be tempted to put those into the playbook this week. Wide receiver Terrelle Pryor has already run the read-option for Cleveland and his experience at quarterback makes him a running threat.

New England will be game planning to stop the Browns rushing attack, but their plan did not work well against the Bills last week. The Patriots will have a tough matchup against the best rushing attack in the NFL.

ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND BROWNS

Next: SUMMARY AND SCORE PREDICTION

SUMMARY AND SCORE PREDICTION:

Fans hold a sign announcing that New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady will be returning. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Last week the New England Patriots came out flat at home and were defeated by AFC East rivals the Buffalo Bills 16-0. The Patriots do not play the Browns often, but they have had trouble against them the last two games.

In 2010 the Browns (and former Patriots assistant Eric Mangini) crushed the Patriots 34-14. In 2013, the Patriots lost Rob Gronkowski to a knee injury and almost lost the game as they needed to recover an onside kick and score two touchdowns in 61 seconds to win.

The Patriots will have their emotional and offensive leader Tom Brady back to face the Browns and after having to serve a four game suspension for…wait, did the NFL ever prove anything? No? So it was a four game suspension for nothing other than trying to restore the competitive balance in the league. OK, so with Brady back the Patriots should get a jumpstart on offense. Add in how Bill Belichick has likely been ripping the other 52 (well, not Ninkovich, so let’s say 51) players on the roster and they should be ready to reboot the season.

This is stop one of the Tom Brady Revenge Tour against the rest of the NFL. Sorry, Cleveland, it is going to be hard to stop this train as it leaves the station.

Final Score Prediction: New England Patriots 31 – Cleveland Browns 16