National Football League

NFL odds Week 7: How to bet Steelers-Dolphins, pick

Published Oct. 21, 2022 11:52 a.m. ET

The Pittsburgh Steelers are heading to Florida to square off against the Miami Dolphins in a Week 7 matchup.

The Steelers are fresh off a 20-18 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, while the Dolphins are coming off a 24-16 loss to the Minnesota Vikings — their third straight loss.

Here's everything you need to know about the NFL odds for Sunday's matchup between the Steelers and Dolphins — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and a pick from our betting expert (with all NFL odds via FOX Bet).

Tom Brady, Bucs struggle in upset loss vs. Steelers

RELATED: Week 7 lines, odds

Steelers at Dolphins (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)

Point spread: Dolphins -7 (Dolphins favored to win by more than 7 points, otherwise Steelers cover)
Moneyline: Dolphins -303 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $13.30 total); Steelers +220 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $32 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 44.5 points scored by both teams combined

Pick via FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

It’s easy to look at the Dolphins and say that this was a team that jumped out early this season, looked decent and then showed more of its true colors. They lost their last three games, two of which were by double digits, and the return of Tua won’t mean much to this offense.

That’s the cop-out.

That’s the lazy man’s narrative.

A few things to poke a few holes in your argument.

1) Did you realize that Tua Tagovailoa was knocked out of the Bengals game with nearly six minutes remaining in the second quarter, and despite that, on the road on a short week Thursday game, off the brutal heat game vs. the Bills, that the Dolphins led the Bengals in the fourth quarter?

The Bengals scored 13 unanswered fourth-quarter points to produce a 12-point win.

2) Did you realize that Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out of the Jets game after ONE play, and the rookie Skylar Thompson, with zero practice all season with the first team offense, entered the game at that point, and despite that, on the road, the Dolphins trailed by only two, 19-17, with less than 10 minutes to go in the fourth quarter?

The Jets scored 21 unanswered points in the final 9:22 of the game to produce the lopsided 40-17 final score, but this game was a two-point game for most of the third quarter and early into the fourth quarter.

3) Did you realize that Skylar Thompson was knocked out of the Vikings game just ONE minute into the second quarter, and Teddy Bridgewater had to fill in for him after not practicing at all week due to being in the concussion protocol? Despite that, the Dolphins trailed by just six points late in the fourth quarter and were driving for another touchdown to take the lead.

But on a second down, after gaining enough yardage to convert the first down, Jaylen Waddle fumbled the ball on the Vikings 26-yard line. Instead of a first-and-10 for the Dolphins with 4:00 to go and in scoring territory, Minnesota had the ball. After a 6-yard run, Dalvin Cook broke off a 53-yard TD run and the Vikings made the 2-point conversion. And what might have been a 1-point deficit had Miami scored turned into a 14-point Vikings lead.

And beyond that, the Dolphins massively outgained the Vikings the entire game, and it wasn’t close.

First downs: MIA 23, MIN 11

Total yards: MIA 458, MIN 234

Passing Yards: MIA 418, MIN 175

We could go on, but the point is Miami should have won this game despite being down three turnovers. But they lost in what looked like a lopsided game which was far closer.

4) For THREE STRAIGHT GAMES, the Miami Dolphins have seen their starting QB get knocked out of the game. For THREE STRAIGHT GAMES, a backup QB who either didn’t take first-team reps, had never even played with the starters or who spent the entire week leading into the game in concussion protocol was inserted into the game. A brutal turn of events for those QBs and Mike McDaniel, as every single one of those QBs has different skill sets, not to mention the backups throw with a different hand than the starter.

And during this time, the Dolphins have played the third-toughest schedule of opposing defenses, including the fourth-toughest schedule of passing defenses.

This should make life even more difficult for the insane QB situation.

And yet where does the Dolphins offense rank right now?

Sixth in total offense, including fifth in passing offense.

That’s absurd. It shouldn’t be possible.

How do you play half the season to date with multiple backup QBs, against the third most difficult schedule of defenses and have the fifth-highest passing offense?

So that’s my argument for anyone who thinks this Dolphins team isn’t solid, particularly now that they have their starting quarterback back.

Now the Dolphins get their starter back and can play a Steelers team who just had a win gift wrapped for them.

The Bucs should have passed the ball more often against a terrible Steelers secondary last week. But they didn’t.

On first down in the first three quarters, the Bucs dropped back to pass the ball just 39% of their offensive plays.

These runs gained 3.6 YPC, -0.05 EPA/att and 43% success.

This is why, on second downs, they averaged 8.2 yards to go, the sixth-longest in the NFL.

It made no sense at all.

In total, on 42 early-down plays in the first three quarters of games, aside from three throwaways and a sack, this was the Bucs game plan on offense:

12 WR targets: +0.70 EPA/att, 11.0 YPA, 75% success

19 runs: -0.10 EPA/att, 3.2 YPC, 47% success

7 non-WR targets: -0.31 EPA/att, 3.9 YPA, 29% success

That’s correct – only 12 of the 42 plays were actual WR targets to attack the vulnerability of the Steelers depleted secondary. At the same time, the team instead called a ton of runs and non-WR targets, all of which produced terrible results.

Pittsburgh has played two offenses that rank 15th or better in efficiency this year:

38-3 loss to the Bills

29-17 loss to the Browns

We since have learned the Browns have one of the worst defenses in the entire NFL. And despite that, on the Steelers final seven drives of the game, they didn’t make it inside the Browns 43-yard line except for once, and that was to kick the FG.

But both of those losses were by double digits.

Now the Steelers have to take on the Dolphins, who have the No. 6 offense in the NFL, despite everything I shared earlier about the deck stacked against them.

If there were a time for a buy low and a sell high moment, this would be it. The Steelers, off their biggest win of the year, and their first win in their last five games, traveling on the road to face a team that is far better than the final scores indicate the last three weeks and is finally getting their QB1 back. Dolphins look solid in teasers this week, and if you had to pick the full-game ATS, I’d take the Dolphins.

PICK: Dolphins (-7 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7 points

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