NFL Confidential: Scouts, Execs on What's Wrong with Chiefs and If They Can Fix It

Maybe a decade of success and Super Bowl runs has finally caught up to the Chiefs.

Deep playoff runs take time, and they undeniably exact a physical toll, and the Chiefs have been doing it for most of the past decade. That includes runs to the Super Bowl in each of the last three seasons. That’s 17 regular-season games, plus three or four playoff games, and then only a couple of months off before they’re back on the field for spring practices.

Could all that wear and tear explain Kansas City's struggles this season?

FOX Sports NFL reporters Ralph Vacchiano and Eric D. Williams surveyed the league to gauge whether we're witnessing the end of a dynasty. 

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Scouts' View: Maybe the Chiefs just need a long rest

Ralph Vacchiano: "They look tired," an executive from an NFC team told me. "That’s what I think every time I see them. They seem like they’re a step slow on everything. They are making uncharacteristic mental mistakes. They have talent. The coaching is as good as it is anywhere in the league.

"But sometimes they look like they just woke up."

Nevertheless, few seem willing to declare the Chiefs dynasty over, even though they’re 6-7 and in real danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014.

"They have the look of a mentally exhausted team right now," an AFC scout told me. "Assuming all the key players and coaches come back, I wouldn’t rule them out next season. They need a recharge more than a reset, I think. They could be dangerous if they come back refreshed."

Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce walks off the field dejectedly after losing to the Houston Texans in Week 14. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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AFC Scout: No team can keep playing with fire without getting burned

Ralph Vacchiano: The Chiefs had a 15-2 record last season and reached their third straight Super Bowl. But the signs of their demise were probably there.

They went a remarkable 11-0 in one-score games, plus another one in the playoffs — a statistical anomaly that was unlikely to repeat in 2025. And it hasn't. So far this season, they are 1-6 in one-score games.

"They got so much credit for being clutch last season, but maybe everyone should have been asking, ’Why are they playing so many close games?’" an AFC scout told me. "All the mistakes they’re making today, they were making then. They were playing with the same fire, but they never seemed to get burned.

"This year it’s the same thing. They’re just getting burned."

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Patrick Mahomes badly needs more help on offense

Ralph Vacchiano: Hard as it may be to believe with a team coached by Andy Reid and quarterbacked by Patrick Mahomes, but the Chiefs' biggest problem may be their offense.

Even though they are still a top-10 offense and are averaging more yards per game (367.1) and points per game (24.2) than they have since 2022, there is a feeling around the NFL that the Chiefs have become "stale" or "punchless" on that side of the ball, as two NFL scouts told me. And the problem isn’t with Reid’s playcalling or with Mahomes’ play.

It’s with their other offensive weapons.

"Other than Mahomes, who scares you on that team?" one of the scouts told me. "Who is the guy you game-plan to stop? It used to be [tight end Travis] Kelce, but he’s basically done. Maybe [receiver] Rashee Rice, but that’s it."                                                                            

Both scouts said Rice (46-525-5 in seven games) has the potential to be a No. 1 receiver, but the rest of the corps is lacking. Kelce is their leading receiver (60-727-5), but as one scout told me, "He’s nowhere near what he used to be, and he’s become incredibly unreliable." Receiver Xavier Worthy (38-456-1), a first-round pick, "has speed, but little else."

"That’s why they’ve been throwing darts at guys like [DeAndre] Hopkins and Hollywood Brown the last few years," the scout told me. "They know they need one more guy — a big receiver who can make plays down the field. Kelce used to play that role for them, but they don’t have that anymore."

Patrick Mahomes seems to be trying to win games all by himself this season. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

In a sense, the Chiefs have been looking for that type of receiver since they traded Tyreek Hill in 2022. Add in the decline of Kelce, and that’s made their passing game feel one-dimensional — a problem made even worse by a running game that lacks explosion.

"They are really good running between the tackles," one of the scouts told me. "[Kareem] Hunt and [Isiah] Pacheco are so strong in short yardage. But you don’t worry about them picking up more than a couple of yards. There's no breakaway ability.

"In fact, you know who their most dangerous runner is? It’s probably Mahomes."

Both scouts suggested the Chiefs’ best path back to contention would be to add a No. 1 or No. 2 receiver in the offseason — or even a receiving tight end to replace Kelce — to give Mahomes another reliable option. And while Reid is always going to run something of a pass-happy offense, a running back with breakaway capability would take even more pressure off Mahomes and make that passing attack really dangerous.

"If you have Reid and Mahomes, you have a good offense," one of the scouts told me. "And with what they have around them, they could be a playoff team next year, easy. They should have been this year.

"But that’s not their standard. They want to keep contending for Super Bowls every year. If so, they need to upgrade what’s around them."

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NFL executive: The AFC West is much better now

Eric D. Williams: Perhaps the answer is a simple one when it comes to the struggles of the juggernaut that was the Kansas City Chiefs over the past decade.

"The division is better," an NFL front office executive told me. 

Sean Payton, who won a Super Bowl with the Saints, has turned the Broncos into playoff contenders in his third season in Denver. And Jim Harbaugh, who won a national championship at Michigan and led the San Francisco 49ers to a Super Bowl, has the Los Angeles Chargers on track to reach the playoffs for a second straight season.

The Chiefs, who own a 57-18 record in the AFC West during Andy Reid’s tenure, will not win the West in 2025 after taking home nine straight division titles. If they finish with a losing record in the division, it would be the first time since 2013, Reid's first season in Kansas City.

Along with the overall improvement of division foes, the executive also pointed to a "regression to the mean in one-score games," aging veterans like tight end Travis Kelce on the downside of their careers and the defense not getting off the field on third down as a reason for the Chiefs' struggles.

They are No. 26 in the league defensively on third down (43.13%) and have just 10 takeaways this season, tied for 27th in the league.

"Kelce is not the consistent difference-maker he has been," the front office executive told me. "The defense is similar to last year, except they have struggled on third down. But the offense is still top 10 in scoring." 

Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him on Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.

Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on X at @eric_d_williams.

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