New England Patriots

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers: 5 Predictions for AFC Championship

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 6:59 p.m. ET

Fansided, James Caughlin/FanSided via Musket Fire

For the third time in the Brady-Belichick era, the New England Patriots will face the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Conference Championship.

Unlike the last two meetings, this game will be in Foxborough but the fans will be hoping that the result follows the pattern of 2001 and 2004. It will not be an easy game however as the Steelers are coming into this game off a gritty win in Kansas. Here are five predictions about what will happen on Sunday.

Here are five predictions for the AFC Championship Game!

1.) Tom Brady Bounces Back from Average Showing Against Houston

After throwing two awful interceptions last Saturday, Brady is going to want to make sure he does not have two bad games in a row. As pointed out earlier this week, Brady has thrown eleven interceptions in his seven most recent Conference Championship games. With his history of success against Mike Tomlin’s defenses this sets up as the perfect bounce back game. Despite some troubles in Week 7 when the teams met, Brady still found a way to drive the Patriots down the field on four touchdown drives and ran for several first downs.

He has never lost to the Steelers at home and has a habit of putting up some gaudy stat lines when the two teams play. If the Patriots are to advance they will need their Hall of Fame bound quarterback to be at the top of his game in what will be a challenging match up. It will not all be on him however as he needs to make sure that his offensive line is set up to protect him from Pittsburgh’s pass rush. Pressure was the team’s undoing in Denver last year as Brady took a beating which lead a troublesome day for the offense. If they can give him the time, he should be able to pick apart the Steelers coverage and score enough points to win.

Jan 15, 2017; Kansas City, MO, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell (26) smiles for the camera after the game against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Divisional playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium. Pittsburgh won 18-16. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

2.) Le’Veon Bell Goes for Over 125 Yards Again

Based on his first two games this postseason, Le’Veon Bell is on a postseason run comparable to Larry Fitzgerald in 2008 or Joe Flacco in 2012. In his two games so far, Bell has produced 337 yards on the ground at a remarkably consistent pace of 167 and 170 yards. It would not be at all surprising if his production against the Patriots came close to that number and just for symmetry purposes he should get 173 yards.

Given Bill Belichick’s strategic history, it would not be at all surprising to see him let Bell get his yardage on the ground and tighten up in the red zone to force them to kick field goals instead of scoring touchdowns. The one downside of that plan is that it could lead to the Steelers controlling the time of possession limiting the number of opportunities that Brady has to score.

3.) Martellus Bennett Steps Up When Called Upon

One of the main reasons that the Patriots have been so successful on offense since 2010 is the presence of Rob Gronkowski in the lineup. Going back to his rookie season, Gronkowski has been an enigma that the Steelers have not been able to solve.

With multiple three touchdown games, he has been the most consistent weapon in games between these two teams. Unfortunately, as has been the case far too often, he is not able to perform in the postseason due to injury. This year he is absent with a back injury but unlike in previous years, there is someone on the roster who can present something resembling a similar threat.

Martellus Bennett was brought in from Chicago and has already shown the ability to have big games this season. Injuries have seen him struggle and need to be managed throughout the year but this is going to be a game where he needs to step up and show why the Patriots (or another team) will want to pay him big money next year. Expect Bennett to be on the receiving end of several targets and he will find the end zone at least once.

4.) Ben Roethlisberger Has Two Turnovers

With the Patriots expected to let Bell get his yardage on the ground, there will be a concerted effort to make sure that the Steelers’ passing game does not beat them with too many explosive plays down field. The Steelers averaged just over two passing plays of 25 yards or more per game and the Patriots will be playing a fairly safe coverage scheme to make sure that they do not give up more of those plays. Expect to see a lot of Devin McCourty and Duron Harmon playing over the top to prevent a big play and force Roethlisberger to have to complete short passes and be patient throughout the game.

As good as Roethlisberger is, that plan will stifle him and there will be two turnovers committed in this game. Look for an interception by McCourty similar to what he did against the Ravens getting underneath a deep pass and a forced fumble on a sack where the rusher is able to knock the ball away.

5.) New England Advances to Super Bowl LI

The most important prediction to come in this article is which team will advance to Houston. It will be a tight game for the first half and Pittsburgh may even go into the half leading. New England will pull away in the second half on the back of those two turnovers and their ability to be tight defensively in the red zone. New England to win 38-23