National Football League

How Bills can stay on Super Bowl track despite being over the cap

Updated Mar. 6, 2023 5:55 p.m. ET

The Buffalo Bills are in for a difficult offseason. To be clear, the Bills have good problems. They have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Josh Allen. It's just that his contract has landed in a spot where, for the first time, it is absolutely chowing through salary cap space (jumping from a $16.3 million cap hit in 2022 to a $39.7 million cap hit in 2023). And the Bills still want to win a Super Bowl, even as the salary gymnastics grow more complicated.

The offseason will be about holding together what talent they have, if possible — while finding small but high-impact veterans on the market who will play large roles. That might mean that Buffalo does what it can to retain its top free agents before waiting out the market to pick away at the best of the rest after Waves 1 and 2. The highest-paid players often get signed quickly. The best bargains happen a week after those players are off the market.

So let's take a look at the most important players the Bills have to consider who are on their team and some of those available on the market.

What is the Bills' salary cap health?

Buffalo, as mentioned, is in a tough spot financially. They are $18.7 million over the salary cap. And while there are 14 teams over the cap, the Bills rank 29th in cap space. They have the fourth-worst situation in the league. And if they're hoping to push money into 2024, it's not all that pretty. They only have $15 million to draw from, the seventh-smallest sum for teams in that year. They need to be very careful about how they reorganize their salary cap.

Might they trade a guy like DT Ed Oliver who plays a position with no shortage of depth? They're going to have to make some big moves to get under the cap and sign their draft class — let alone add a few free agents.

Who are the most important Bills slated to hit free agency?

Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds: This dude is going to get paid this offseason, perhaps in the neighborhood of $12 million to $15 million per year. The 24-year-old Edmunds makes a ton of sense for the Bills to retain, even if it's part of what puts them over the cap again in 2024. Edmunds and Matt Milano are keys to this defense, and I'm sure the Bills realize that. But if the financials are too challenging to determine — especially if Buffalo wants to add a receiver — then Edmunds seems like an obvious candidate to hit the open market and find a new team.

Safety Jordan Poyer: The Bills have to be asking Poyer: How big of a hometown discount are you willing to take? The 31-year-old safety doesn't make much sense for Buffalo anymore. He's the type of veteran that a younger and less-established roster needs, so he'll get paid more elsewhere. The Bills can only retain him if he badly wants to stay in Buffalo.

Cornerback Dane Jackson: Some might think that guard Rodger Saffold belongs on this list. But I think the Bills should feel comfortable letting him go. He had a really bad year. Jackson, meanwhile, was a top contributor in the team's admittedly shoddy secondary. While Jackson wasn't brilliant, I'm not sure what the Bills have to replace him. Kaiir Elam and Christian Benford, who are entering their second seasons, might not be ready. Jackson might not cost much, which is all the more reason to make him a priority.

Who should the Bills target in free agency?

Safety Terrell Edmunds: Would Buffalo swap out one of the Edmunds brothers for the other? Terrell has been a good player for Pittsburgh. He's 26 years old and should command less that half of the market value that Poyer is likely to make. Edmunds hasn't racked up stats, but he could be a decent value on the market.

Running back D'Onta Foreman: Zach Moss wasn't what the Bills wanted out of a power back, which was why they traded him. And still, they felt his departure, without a big body in their running back room. Foreman would be an ideal fit, with a track record of carrying a big load against loaded boxes.

Guard Will Hernandez: He started 13 games for the Cardinals in 2022 and managed to post a respectable PFF grade of 65.4. Hernandez earned a bill as a nasty blocker when the Giants drafted him in Round 2 at 34th overall in 2018. But he made just $1 million this year and might be a decent budget option to start at guard for Buffalo in 2023.

Who should the Bills try to trade for?

WR Allen Robinson: It's tricky to determine how much of Robinson's salary the Bills would take on. But the Rams are willing to eat some of it to move on from Robinson, per The Athletic. So if L.A. takes on a big portion of Robinson's contract, then maybe the Bills would be willing to give up a solid draft pick. They'd exchange extra draft capital for a player at a discount contract. That seems like a reasonable transfer. But the biggest question: Do the Bills think Robinson is any good? He's had two rough seasons.

WR Brandin Cooks: Again, if the Texans are willing to eat some of Cooks' salary ($18 million in 2023), then maybe the Bills would be willing to give up a third-round pick. Cooks would be a compelling option opposite Stefon Diggs. Cooks would likely put up 1,000 yards with Allen at quarterback.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @McKennAnalysis.

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