Atlanta Falcons

Falcons Post-Week 4 Fantasy Outlook

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Oct 2, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman (24) scores a rushing touchdown against Carolina Panthers outside linebacker Shaq Green-Thompson (54) in the first quarter of their game at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

The fireworks continued for the Atlanta Falcons’ offense, as they finally returned home for a week 4 showdown against the defending NFC South Champion Carolina Panthers. It was a fantasy football day for the ages.

Are we having fun yet? After marching into New Orleans and spoiling the 10th year anniversary of the re-opening of the Superdome, behind the muscle of 45 points, the Falcons threw some hay-makers at the Carolina Panthers this week.

In yet another shoot-out, the birds put up a season high 48 points, while Matt Ryan and Julio Jones re-wrote the record books.

Here is the week 4 Falcons fantasy review, and outlook heading into week 5.

(Note: This is based on NFL.com standard scoring)

1. Devonta Freeman

Another Week, Another Touchdown: Devonta Freeman (13 carries, 57 rushing yards, 2 catches, 7 receiving yards, 1 rushing touchdown: 12.40 points)

Devonta Freeman came into this one after a career day in New Orleans, where he went for over 200 yards from scrimmage. Fantasy owners weren’t expecting a repeat performance of that, but what Freeman gave them was a very respectable game nonetheless.

The Florida State alum was by far the more productive runner in the committee — averaging 4.38 yards per carry, compared to Tevin Coleman’s 2.37 ypc.

While he wasn’t really much of a factor in the receiving game, Freeman did score Atlanta’s lone rushing touchdown of the game.

The third-year man looked very spry running between the tackles against what is normally a stifling Panthers run defense. His touchdown came from 13-yards out, and up the middle, to give Atlanta a quick 14-0 lead.

Analysis: For the third straight week, Devonta Freeman has outperformed Tevin Coleman on the ground (Coleman had 3 TDs against the Saints but was far less efficient on his carries). If he keeps outperforming the former Indiana Hoosier at this rate, then there should be an uptick in carries coming his way over the course of the season.

Despite the solid performance, however, Freeman should be considered more of a flex option as opposed to an RB2 next week — Atlanta has to make the trip to Denver, where they will go up against what is maybe the best defense in the NFL.

Oct 2, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones (11) stiff arms Carolina Panthers cornerback Bene

2. Julio Jones

JULIOOOOOOHHHHH-MY-GOODNESS: Julio Jones (12 catches, 300 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown: 36.0 points)

Following a week where he was the “Fantasy Disappointment” in this column (1 catch, 16 yards, 0 touchdowns), Julio Jones absolutely sunk his teeth into a young Carolina secondary.

Matt Ryan peppered Jones with targets early in this one — connecting with the star wide-out on passes of 22 yards, 14 yards, and 15 yards on the first three plays of the game — and that set the tone for the entire afternoon.

Jones consistently abused James Bradberry, Bene Benwikere and Darryl Worley in one on one coverage. The big plays were there too — Julio recorded catches of 32 yards, 43 yards, 53 yards and 75 yards throughout the day.

The Alabama product took a post route for 75 yards and a touchdown late in the fourth quarter, beating and running past three defenders in the process.

The 300 receiving yards represents a new franchise record, the sixth highest mark in NFL history, and the most since Calvin Johnson had 329 yards against the Cowboys in 2013.

Oh, and also:

Analysis: I certainly hope you were able to take advantage of that one bad game for Julio, and that you traded for him in your league, if you didn’t already have him. Those 36 points of his were a game-breaker this week, and are the most points scored by a WR in a single fantasy game so far this season.

A tough match-up against the game’s best CB duo, Chris Harris Jr. and Aquib Talib, looms on the horizon, but there’s no way you should sit the hottest receiver in all of football — fire Julio Jones up as an elite WR1, and consider him match-up proof.

Oct 2, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) drops back to pass in the third quarter of their game against the Carolina Panthers at the Georgia Dome. Also shown on the play is Carolina Panthers middle linebacker Luke Kuechly (59) and Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones (11). The Falcons won 48-33. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

3. Matt Ryan

An Early MVP Candidate: Matt Ryan (28-37, 503 passing yards (!!!!!), 4 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 4 carries, 14 rushing yards: 35.52 points)

Finally playing against a “real defense” (according to his critics or “haters” as I like to call them, his stats were inflated because he was playing some sub-par defenses the first three weeks) Matt Ryan put up a stat-line that resembled more of a game of Madden than it did an actual NFL game.

Mattie Ice put up a new franchise record for passing yards in a game, and looked sharp as a tack throughout the entire afternoon. His connection with Julio Jones was immaculate, as the two linked up for 300 yards through the air.

There was one bad mistake which came in the form of a pic-6 thrown while the Falcons were in the shadow of their own goal-posts, deep inside their own territory.

However, the way Ryan bounced back from what was, at the the time, a catastrophic turnover really says something about his character and leadership. He did not let that mistake define his afternoon.

All four touchdown passes were distributed to different receivers — Jacob Tamme, Austin Hooper, Aldrick Robinson, Julio Jones — and the nine different players caught a pass. While Julio Jones was the focal point of the passing game this week, Ryan has continued to distribute the wealth the way he’s been doing all season.

Analysis: Matt Ryan is the highest scoring fantasy QB at the quarter point of the season. He’s scored over 24 fantasy points in three games, and would have easily surpassed that total in the fourth (against the Saints) if the run game wasn’t so dominant.

Atlanta now travels to Denver for a match against one of the most stifling pass defenses in the NFL. I will not tell you to bench the number 1 scoring QB in fantasy football, but I warn Matt Ryan fantasy owners to tamper their expectations next week.

Oct 2, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Tevin Coleman (26) runs for yards against Carolina Panthers middle linebacker Luke Kuechly (59) in the first quarter of their game at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

4. Tevin Coleman

Fantasy Disappointment of the Day: Tevin Coleman (8 carries, 19 rushing yards, 3 catches, 24 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns: 3.30 points)

A game against the Carolina Panthers’ front 7 is always a difficult task for a running back, and Tevin Coleman didn’t look to be up to the challenge this week.

Devonta Freeman was just flat out the better runner today, as four of Coleman’s eight carries went for two yards or less.

The Indiana product did have more receiving yards between the two RBs, but even that only went for 24 yards.

Coleman got 45.8% of the RB touches, while Freeman took control of 54.2% of the looks. That kind of distribution, where Freeman takes between 52%-60% of the touches, has been consistent all season, in this tried-and-true committee.

Analysis: Tevin Coleman dominated goal-line carries last week, and converted them into fantasy points, but had no such like this week, as Atlanta took just three snaps from within the Carolina 5-yard line (Devonta Freeman was in the game for these snaps).

However, disguised by those touchdowns last week has been Coleman’s complete inefficiency when it comes to running the ball, in these past two games — In this time span, the second year man out of Indiana has had 20 carries for just 61 yards: that’s good for an atrocious 3.05 yards per carry.

If Coleman doesn’t start running the ball more efficiently, he’ll be in danger of losing touches throughout the course of the season. I would not recommend starting him against a strong Broncos defense, unless you have no other options.

Sep 11, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Mohamed Sanu (12) celebrates with quarterback Matt Ryan (2) after a touchdown pass in the first quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

5. Mohamed Sanu

Playing Hurt: Mohamed Sanu (2 catches, 22 receiving yards: 2.20 points)

Reports came in before the game that Mohamed Sanu was going to be playing through a separated shoulder. Hopefully fantasy owners saw the news and promptly removed him from their lineups.

It was the Julio Jones show throughout the day, and the 2016 free agent signing took a back seat to arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL.

Sanu was kept quiet throughout the first half, but then had a huge 18-yard catch on 3rd and 10 to move the chains in the third quarter. That drive ended up resulting in a 42-yard Austin Hooper touchdown.

The Rutgers product also had a nice block on Julio Jones’ 75-yard touchdown catch, but you don’t get fantasy points for blocking.

Analysis: Sanu obviously isn’t quite at 100% yet. Keep monitoring his shoulder injury throughout the coming weeks. He should be firmly planted on your bench next week against the Denver Broncos, as Julio Jones is really the only startable Falcons WR in that match-up.

Oct 2, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Aldrick Robinson (19) reacts with tight end Austin Hooper (81) after catching a touchdown pass against the Carolina Panthers during the second half at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons defeated the Panthers 48-33. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

6. The Other Guys

Jacob Tamme (2 catches, 3 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown: 6.30 points)

It was a very quiet day for Jacob Tamme, other than a 4-yard touchdown catch which opened up the scoring. That one play alone turned this into a decent fantasy output for a TE. Tamme should have scored another touchdown, in the second quarter, but lost his footing and caught the pass while laying on the ground instead.

While the touchdown was nice, the fact that the former Kentucky Wildcat only had 3 yards can’t be overlooked. Keep treating Tamme as a TE2, who should only be started as a bye week plug-in.

Taylor Gabriel (3 catches, 49 receiving yards: 4.9 points)

Gabriel had a very nice real life day of production for the Falcons, converting a 3rd down on one occasion, and a 2nd and 19 on another. All three of his catches went for over 10 yards.

Gabriel, however, should still not be on your roster. Matt Ryan distributes the ball to too many receivers to expect this type of yardage (which is pretty modest) every week.

Austin Hooper (1 catch, 42 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown: 10.20 points)

Austin Hooper’s touchdown catch was a carbon copy of his reception against Oakland which went for big yardage — Matt Ryan rolled to the right, then threw deep to the other side of the field to a wide open Hooper, whom the defense abandoned. It was a beautiful play design by offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan.

Despite the touchdown catch, this game solidified the notion that Hooper should not be picked up in any redraft leagues. That was his only target of the game, after a week 3 which featured zero targets. Take a flier on Hooper if you’re in a dynasty league, and get ready to use him next season.

Aldrick Robinson (2 catches, 48 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown: 10.80 points)

The highlight here was obviously Robinson’s big-time 35-yard touchdown catch in the third quarter. However, just like with Justin Gabriel, Matt Ryan distributes the ball to too many players for Robinson to be considered a legitimate fantasy option.

Justin Hardy (0 catches, 0 yards: 0.0 points)

The touchdowns were always going to cease, but in a game where nine different players caught a pass, Justin Hardy was not one of them. There’s no reason for anyone to have him on their fantasy roster.

Still Got It: Matt Bryant (6 PAT, 1 20-29, 1 50+: 14 points)

For the second straight week, the Atlanta Falcons put up six touchdowns, and gave Matt Bryant an opportunity to convert on six PATs.

The big points came in the form of a 53-yard fourth quarter field goal which split the uprights. That was Bryant’s longest kick of the season, surpassing his previous high of 34 yards. He also converted on a 28 yarder in the second quarter.

Analysis: There’s really not much to analyze here: Bryant is the third ranked kicker in fantasy at the quarter mark of the season, and should be owned in more than 14.4% of leagues. If you have him, just continue riding the wave.

The Defense (1 sack, 2 interceptions, 1 touchdown, 27 points allowed: 11.0 points)

The defense was having a tremendous game against the reigning MVP, until they started going with that conservative play calling as a result of a big lead. Dwight Freeney recorded his second sack of the season in this one.

The defense, and more specifically Robert Alford, racked up 10 of these 11 total points on the final two Carolina drives of the game. The first resulted in an Alford pic-6 which sealed the game, and the second ended up finishing with yet another interception for Alford. QB Derek Anderson was the victim, as Cam Newton left the game early due to a concussion.

The defense is slowly starting to build some trust on the road to becoming a streaming option, but I’m not quite ready to claim them as such yet. Tough games against Denver, Seattle, San Diego, and Green Bay are on the horizon.