Atlanta Falcons

Chiefs vs. Falcons, Matchup Analysis

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

The Chiefs showed their might in moving the immovable object. Now the Chiefs take on the unstoppable force. Who’s going to stand up against the Falcons?

Sunday will be the first time the Chiefs and Falcons will face without Tony Gonzalez in over 20 years. The Chiefs are coming off a hard fought win in over time against the Broncos. The Falcons are coming off a blowout against the Cardinals. Both teams are fighting to improve their position in the playoff standings.

The Chiefs are facing their fifth opponent who ranked top 10 in scoring, and are 4-0 in those games. The Falcons are facing their fourth and final AFC West team, and are 2-1 in those games.

The Chiefs so far this season have often faced uncertainty in the eyes of the media in gauging their future performance. Despite beating both the Broncos and Raiders at their own home rank below both of them in ESPN’s power rankings. They made a statement against arguably the best defense in the league. Time for the Chiefs to make a statement against arguably the best offense in the league.

Now who’s going to decide the outcome?

Spencer Ware vs. Falcons Defense

Like many of the top offenses the Chiefs have faced the opponents defense tends to rank fairly poorly. However, the Falcons are actually 10th in rushing yards allowed. According to Football Outsiders tough their defense is 30th in Adjusted Line Yards. When looking at where the run is coming from the Falcons are first allowing just 1.77 ALY against the right end of their defense.

The success in defending the run on the right side can partly be attributed to defensive stalwarts Vic Beasley and Keanu Neal. But the run defense gets a break due to their atrocious pass defense ranking last in the league. The Falcons defense has faced 310 passes compared to just 259 rushing attempts.

With the Chiefs facing the top offense in the NFL the Chiefs will aim to control the clock and keep Matt Ryan off the Field. So far this season the Chiefs are 22nd in time of possession, and the Falcons are 21st. Against the Raiders earlier this season the Chiefs running backs ran the ball a total of 36 times, and controlled the clock for 36:45. In that game Spencer Ware ran the ball 24 times for 131 yards and one touchdown. If the Chiefs are going to beat the high-flying Falcons I expect a similar level of production from the Chiefs running back position.

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Phillip Gaines vs. Falcons Receivers

It’s no secret that Phillip Gaines struggled mightily against the Broncos last Sunday. In total Gaines was targeted eight times and gave up six catches for 209 yards and two touchdowns. The two touchdown throws against Gaines came without any help, and attributed to 111 of the 209 total yards given up. For much of the season when healthy Gaines has been a serviceable outside/inside corner, but this most recent game may have exposed him a bit. Teams have become hesitant to target Peters this season leaving Gaines with extra attention.

Thankfully Steven Nelson has returned to practice this week and should be a boon for the Chiefs backfield.

So who are Gaines responsibilities this week? Julio Jones, Mohammad Sanu, and Taylor Gabriel all rotate inside and out in the Falcons offense. Julio Jones will likely see extra attention from Ron Parker and Daniel Sorensen in their dime formations. That will leave Gaines main responsibilities to stopping Sanu and Gabriel. Taylor Gabriel over the last four games has torched teams for 271 yards and four touchdowns. Sanu over the last four games has gone for 237 yards and one touchdown.

Before the game against the Broncos, opponents second and third WRs averaged just 50 yards a game and only 1 touchdown combined. During the Broncos game Gaines did interfere with two other passes that easily could of ended up touchdowns. So with Steven Nelson and Dee Ford both potentially back for the game, Sanu and Gabriel should remain in check.

DENVER, CO – NOVEMBER 27: Outside linebacker Justin Houston

Justin Houston vs. Falcons Offensive Line

Last Sunday Justin Houston had his coming out party wrecking the Broncos to the tune of three sacks and a forced fumble including a safety. But all of those stats came in the first half. Houston was still effective helping shut down the run game and putting pressure on Trevor Siemian, but was unable to take down the QB again.

Atlanta will likely be a tougher matchup as the Falcons rank 9 spots higher than the Broncos in pass protection. Right tackle Ryan Schraeder ranks 12th overall for tackles according to PFF. That’s in comparison to Ty Sambrailo (78th) and Donald Stephenson (79th) who Houston wrecked last week.

However, unlike last week the Chiefs may have back Dee Ford who is leading the Chiefs in sacks. With Dee Ford in the mix the Chiefs should be able to get pressure with only 4 rushers. Something the Chiefs have struggled with for most of the season. We know Houston can dominate any opponent, but having Ford back could help take the pressure off Houston to make every play.