Chiefs: 5 reasons they will reach the playoffs
Jan 9, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Kansas City Chiefs outside linebacker Justin Houston (50) during the AFC Wild Card playoff football game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium . Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
The Kansas City Chiefs are still going to make the playoffs, and I have five reasons as to why.
5. Justin Houston’s return
The Chiefs expect Houston to be back in November, which means we could only be without him for another three or four games. Houston’s return will change the entire dynamic of the defense, allowing Bob Sutton to do what he typically does.
Sutton likes to drop guys into coverage and primarily blitz on third down, something he can’t do when the team is failing to get pressure on a weekly basis. Kansas City got 22 sacks out of Houston in 2014 and another Pro Bowl campaign in 2015, despite him being limited to 10 games. It also bears mentioning that teams have to gameplan in a completely different way when Houston is on the field, staring down their quarterback.
If Houston comes back at full strength for the second half of the season, expect Kansas City to start playing defense at a top-five level. His presence also helps the secondary, which has to cover for much longer right now. Sometimes, one player really can make that much of a difference.
Oct 2, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers defensive end Cameron Heyward (97) sacks Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith (11) during the second half at Heinz Field. The Steelers won the game, 43-14. Mandatory Credit: Jason Bridge-USA TODAY Sports
4. They can’t be worse
Kansas City has been utterly brutal over the first four weeks of the season. The defense has certainly had its moments, but the offense has been where productivity goes to die. To this point, we have yet to see the offense put together one solid game.
Against the San Diego Chargers, we saw what the offense is capable of. Alex Smith was throwing the ball downfield to Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce. The problem? He didn’t start doing that until the Chiefs were down by 21 points. It’s like Smith refuses to start taking any kind of chances until the game is completely out of hand.
Smith is far from the only problem, though. The offensive line has allowed 13 sacks, mostly because the guards have been overwhelmed on the left side. Kansas City needs to get the ball out and perhaps use some better protections, including the usage of a running back and/or tight end against aggressive teams.
Defensively, the aforementioned return of Houston should change things. The defense has looked good for the most part outside of that debacle in Pittsburgh and the first half against San Diego. Look for this unit to bounce back against Oakland.
Oct 2, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid looks on during the second half at Heinz Field. The Steelers won the game, 43-14. Mandatory Credit: Jason Bridge-USA TODAY Sports
3. Andy Reid
Everybody is taking turns burying Reid. I’m typically not the one to point at coaching (the players have to execute) but in this case, I’m now going to take my turn. Reid has done a horrible job to this point in the 2016 season. While Sutton can at least blame the absence of Houston for much of his woes, Reid has nothing to say.
This offense is far too easy to scheme against. Put all the defenders in the box and force Alex Smith to throw the ball down the field. Since we all know that is not going to happen, look for some screens and the option. At some point, Reid has to trust Smith enough to throw the ball and take some chances. If Smith won’t do it, yank him.
So why is this a reason the team will make the playoffs? Because Andy Reid is a good coach, and you and I both know it. Reid is maddening, but he gets the job done. The team is yet to have a losing season under him, and that won’t be changing this year.
Reid always finds a way into the postseason, and he will adjust in the bye week. Don’t forget what this team looked like early on last year.
Sep 25, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Marcus Peters (22) is congratulated after intercepting a pass during the first half against the New York Jets at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
2. Too much talent
This is low-hanging fruit. The Chiefs are a very talented team. It’s easy to get down on them after being blown out so badly on national television, but it happens. The 1994 San Francisco 49ers are one of the greatest teams ever assembled. They were hammered at home by the Philadelphia Eagles that year.
Want some more examples? We already know about the 2014 New England Patriots and what happened to them in Arrowhead, but what about the 1976 Raiders? Oakland only lost one games that season, and it came in a 34-point loss to the Patriots. I could go on, and on, and on. These things happen. The NFL is a weekly sport, and each week, everything changes. It happens.
Kansas City has one of the best rosters in the NFL. Even with the limitations of Alex Smith and Andy Reid, this group can win the Super Bowl. It really can. Denver has a ton of limitations, it just manages them better than the Chiefs. Kansas City can change that.
Most teams in the league would trade rosters with the Chiefs in a heartbeat. There is no reason to talk about blowing things up or starting over. Kansas City has to simply get back to work, and it will.
Sep 25, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; A Kansas City Chiefs shows his support during the second half against the New York Jets at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs won 24-3. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
1. Soft schedule
After Oakland, the rest of the slate looks very easy. THe hardest games on the schedule would be visits to the Panthers, Broncos and Falcons. Beyond that? The Chiefs will host the Broncos, Raiders, Titans, Jaguars, Buccaneers and Saints.
Think about those six games. With all due respect to those opponents, those should be six wins provided Kansas City plays anywhere from fair to good, depending on the team. Denver and Oakland are good teams (Denver can be very good) but those games are going to see Kansas City as the favorite barring injuries. The other four? The Chiefs will be huge favorites.
Then there are the other road games. Trips to Indianapolis and San Diego await. Both of those should be wins. Now, we know in the NFL that crazy stuff happens all the time, and I just chalked up eight games as wins. I’m also saying that in this scenario, the Chiefs would be losing every game that is even moderately difficult.
Looking at the schedule, there is no reason to think this team can’t win 11-12 games if Reid gets a better gameplan, and Smith simply executes the way he has in the past. People treat a prediction of 11-5 like it’s impossible, despite Kansas City being exactly that in two of the last three years.
Just take a deep breath, Kansas City. It’ll be fine.
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