Kansas City Chiefs

AFC Divisional Playoff 2017, Steelers vs Chiefs: Preview and Prediction

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 8:59 p.m. ET

Fansided, Alan Schechter/FanSided via NFL Spin Zone

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The NFL continues Divisional Playoff weekend on Sunday as the Le’Veon Bell and the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Arrowhead Stadium to face the No. 2 seeded Kansas City Chiefs. Last week, Ben Roethlisberger ended Wild Card Weekend in a walking boot, but he has shed the boot and is expected to play on Sunday.

Given the track record of both of these teams in recent years, it’s far from surprising to see them meeting in the Divisional Round. The Steelers have been a staple in the postseason under Mike Tomlin. Similarly, the arrival of Andy Reid in Kansas City has made them a fixture in the playoffs. With that and the displays both teams have put forth this season, their battle on Sunday could be one of the show-stealers of the weekend.

It’s always a tough day for any team when they head up to Kansas City, as Arrowhead is one of the loudest buildings in the league. These two teams met earlier in the season in Pittsburgh, with the Steelers taking the game by a 43-14 score. But in front of that Arrowhead crowd, things change quickly.

Let’s take a look at how each of these teams got to this point this season, what they need to do to notch a victory come Sunday, and ultimately make a prediction. Here is your preview for Steelers vs. Chiefs.

Jan 8, 2017; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (7) celebrates after a touchdown pass against the Miami Dolphins during the second half in the AFC Wild Card playoff football game at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: James Lang-USA TODAY Sports

How Pittsburgh Got Here

The Steelers are here because of a high-powered offense that was tied for 10th in the NFL in scoring (24.9 points per game). Despite playing in only 12 games, Le’Veon Bell rushed for 1,268 yards and averaged over 105 yards per game on the ground. He dominated Kansas City when these two teams battled in week four, running the ball 18 times for 144 yards. In three career matchups, Bell has averaged over 109 yards per game.

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Ben Roethlisberger had another strong season, winning 10 of his 14 starts, completing over 64 percent of his passes and throwing 29 touchdown passes. The Steelers went 11-5 in the regular season, earning them the AFC North crown.

Last week they topped the Miami Dolphins 30-12 in front of the Pittsburgh faithful. Roethlisberger threw for two touchdowns and completed over 72 percent of his passes, while Bell carried the ball 29 times for 167 yards and two scores. Not bad for Bell’s playoff debut.

You also can’t forget the production of Antonio Brown. The prolific receiver got off to a slow start this season for the Steelers, but picked it up greatly down the stretch. In the aforementioned win over the Dolphins, he set the tone early with two touchdowns of over 50 yards.

Jan 1, 2017; San Diego, CA, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith (11) is pushed out of bounds by San Diego Chargers inside linebacker Joshua Perry (53) during the second half of the game at Qualcomm Stadium. The Chiefs won 37-27. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

How Kansas City Got Here

Kansas City was on the way to Wild Card Weekend until we hit the last two weeks of the regular season. They went on a two-game winning streak, Oakland collapsed thanks to the Derek Carr injury, and they wound up with the AFC West title, a 12-4 record, and the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Andy Reid has won 67 percent of his games since taking the job as the Chiefs head coach and posted the best record of his tenure in the 2016 season.

No matter how many times the term “game-manager” is used, much of Kansas City’s success comes because of Alex Smith. He is a fine quarterback. He may not make a lot of plays that make the SportsCenter’s Top 10, but he does some other things that are important. He completes passes and wins games. Smith completed 67 percent of his passes in 2016 and the team won 12 games. He has won 41 out of 61 starts since arriving in Kansas City and completed 64 percent of his passes.

Does that sound like a mere game-manager?

For a team that has been led by the pass rush in the past, this year the pass defense ruled the day. Defensive coordinator Bob Sutton’s pass defense allowed the second-lowest completion percentage (58.5 percent) and the third-lowest passer rating (79.8) of any unit in the NFL.

Dec 18, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (7) leads wide receiver Antonio Brown (84) and teammates in a huddle in the first half at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Pittsburgh Keys to Victory

Led by head coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have garnered a reputation for being an aggressive squad. To win this game, they are going to have to be aggressive, strike quickly, and strike often. With the Killer Bs—Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown—they’ve proven to be more than capable of doing that. In fact, they did it just one week ago.

Alex Smith is an efficient quarterback, but he doesn’t like the deep ball. It just isn’t who he is. His 7.2 yards per attempt ranked him 16th in the league. According to Sporting Charts, Smith ranked 21st in the league with 24 big plays (completed passes for 25 yards or longer). If Kansas City falls behind they are going to have a tough time getting back in it, as they showed back in Week 4. Brown scored twice on two big plays in the first quarter of the Wild Card Round. Doing something similar would be huge for Pittsburgh in this matchup.

The breakout player in Kansas City on offense in 2016 was Travis Kelce. He set career highs with 85 receptions and 1,125 yards. He posted a touchdown in a losing cause against the Steelers back in week four. He is Smith’s safety valve and will allow the Chiefs to control the time of possession. The Steelers must take him out of the game defensively.

Jan 1, 2017; San Diego, CA, USA; Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Marcus Peters (22) intercepts a pass intended for San Diego Chargers wide receiver Dontrelle Inman (15) as cornerback Steven Nelson (20) assists in defense during the second quarter at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas City Keys to Victory

The Steelers boast a prolific passing offense. Kansas City tied for the league lead in 2016 with 18 interceptions. This matchup is going to be at the heart of deciding the result on Sunday.

Marcus Peters is at the forefront of this matchup as the players to watch.. The second-year pro has already posted 14 interceptions in his career with six of them coming in 2016. The marquee matchup of the day will be Peters against Steelers top receiver Antonio Brown. The winner of this epic duel will go a long way in determining the outcome. Kansas City and Peters must come out on top. Ask the Dolphins how well failing to contain Brown works out.

On offense, Alex Smith and company are going to have to control the line of scrimmage and the time of possession. We’ve already discussed how Pittsburgh is a quick-striking team. Meanwhile, Kansas City has the reputation of being the exact opposite. They must methodically take the ball down the field and leave Roethlisberger wearing a jacket on the sidelines.

Of course, an outburst or two from rookie Tyreek Hill would certainly help their cause as well. But keeping control and maintaining their methodical approach is the scenario that will lead the home team to victory and a date in the AFC Championship game.

Oct 2, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid (L) and Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin (R) meet at mid-field after their game at Heinz Field. The Steelers won 43-14. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction

So who takes this one? It’s honestly a tough call. Kansas City is riding high after storming back to win the AFC West. They beat the defending Super Bowl champions to earn the title officially and enter on a two-game winning streak. They certainly will be looking for revenge for their Week 4 loss in front of the “Terrible Towels.” Can they hold serve in front of their fans at Arrowhead?

The Steelers enter this one hitting on all cylinders. Le’Veon Bell proved last week that the playoff stage is not too big for him. Roethlisberger showed once again how good of a big game quarterback he really is. His record in the playoffs is 12-6. Do he and Antonio Brown make it lucky No. 13? What’s more, will Roethlisberger be at—or close to—100 percent?

This should be one of the best games of the weekend, with the result very much in doubt when the fourth quarter rolls around. However, Bob Sutton has a game plan in mind that is going to exact revenge for week four. The home team holds serve in this one and the dangerous Steelers ultimately don’t get the chance to play for yet another Lombardi Trophy.

Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers: 17, Kansas City Chiefs: 24